Bob Elliott

CIO at @UnlimitedFnds | PM of $HFGM, $HFEQ, $HFMF, $HFND | Fmr @Bridgewater IC | One of the few "sane" voices on #fintwit | Comments not investment advice

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Given the nature of this platform, it is hard to know what kind of track record folks have in making major macro calls.

Here's a look at my track record over the last few years. Thread.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

1/3 Reality, 2/3 Delusion

With revenue growth and margins now disclosed, the vast majority of Anthropic’s floated IPO valuation looks unjustified relative to even a positive spin on the hard data reality.

https://t.co/tEDtiO9gw9

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

China’s Weak Markets & Rising Currency

Forget the official numbers, the combination of weak equity performance, low yields, and a rising currency highlight the continued acceleration of the domestic deleveraging.

https://t.co/6SnxmZHBCz

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Probably better to see some noticeable productivity acceleration on a macro level before pitching 5x the growth rate ever seen in the history of man in just 3yrs.
https://t.co/GaR70UEw0q

[Lisan al Gaib @scaling01]

Surveyed Anthropic staff's answers imply 17.1% GDP growth in 2030

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Most investors focused on the AI trade don't get that monetary and fiscal policy has been a big underlying driver supporting the trade. The next policy pump is set to be much harder. Free on the blog app this week:

https://t.co/LVoRhG3Yzp

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

The Next Policy Pump
The last several years have seen markets supported by both fiscal and monetary easing, but those benefits are set to reverse which means any new stimulation will require far more unorthodox efforts.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@Texas_Hedger1 Has plateaued in the last couple surveys after picking up this summer, in line with other data. For your squinting pleasure.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

The Coastal Blindspot

While the venture-tech echo chamber hypes accelerating AI adoption through anecdotal stories, data covering a wider lens of US business and households suggests much more tepid uptake.

https://t.co/lKOqWQ4aeK

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@ericwallerstein Appreciate it! As you can see your chart inspired the longer look. Hope you having a fun time on the road!

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

The Consumer Just Can’t Keep Up

Unlike earlier in the year when consumers surged spending to keep up with rising gas prices, spending has not kept up with the second surge in prices this fall. h/t @ericwallerstein

https://t.co/2wSTqN4eZS

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

If the recent 8bln/mo ARR increases for OpenAI+Anthropic continue that'll get them to a combined 1tln ARR by the end of 2035.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

Have only unwound a few weeks of the mania, and there are a lot of folks levered up on the long side of this trade.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@timztweet44 yup, needs 3tln in total systemwide revenue in just a couple years...
https://t.co/c3WhptkKEK

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

More on how the size of the question ahead has gotten so large here on the blog app:

https://t.co/bifKj6KlvA

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

AI manics are desperately extrapolating Anthropic's q/q growth without recognizing most of the surge happened *within* 2Q26 driven by a period of tokenmaxxing and low competition that will never exist again.

The four months since look very different.
https://t.co/OTikALgIC6

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

AI manics set to panic as Anthropic confirms *flat* ARR in 3Q.

If Jul 26 ARR was 65bln, and total 3Q26 Revenue was 67.2bln, then basically no ARR growth. Even worse than the @tickerplus estimates, which were already on the low end of most trackers.
https://t.co/bo5Kf6gLdV

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@ItsGoharr @tickerplus For a 2tln IPO. Naw...

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

AI manics set to panic as Anthropic confirms *flat* ARR in 3Q.

If Jul 26 ARR was 65bln, and total 3Q26 Revenue was 67.2bln, then basically no ARR growth. Even worse than the @tickerplus estimates, which were already on the low end of most trackers.
https://t.co/bo5Kf6gLdV

[TickerTrends 🔬 @tickerplus]

The Financial Times reports Anthropic generated $16.8B in Q3 revenue, up from $11.5B in Q2

While revenue continues to climb, quarterly growth has slowed, from 143% in Q2 to 46% in Q3

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@TXMCtrades Amen.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@philoinvestor @tickerplus ARR is monthly revenue annualized, so its directly comparable as I have done at the top.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@Chris_the_OT @heyfinlo @tickerplus thats funny.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@CockedStriker @Delray881 @tickerplus As I note in the tweet, their own guidance today confirms it

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@illyquid @tickerplus I'm a big fan of numerical reality vs. unsupported delusion.

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@HashOverCash21 @tickerplus Out of the box thinking... I like it!

[Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited]

@Future_Ripples @tickerplus All depends on whether Dario gets his government sponsored monopoly...