@milesdeutscher Miles, it’s not as simple as being above or below. You have to look at core cpi which removes the volatile components like food and energy. Attention will be on core goods which is sensitive to tariffs effects and whether it picks up
@SpencerHakimian Think you need to look at the borrowing once you remove changes in cash balance and SOMA runoffs. This gives you a better picture on the deficit which is roughly about 1.8 trillion for 2025 vs 1.9 trillion
@MyRoadToFi5633@fejau_inc RRP will likely not go to zero but somewhere under 100bn. Funds will likely keep some allocated to RRP as is is the most accessible liquidity
@Dr_Gingerballs@fejau_inc Which banks? Most of the GSIBs have sufficient capital above the minimum SLR. They are even going to return excess capital to shareholders after the stress test cleared the way
@dampedspring Rising fiscal premium lifts all. Don’t think US will be immune no matter how much they tinker around with the composition. Terming in is a soft patch then what do you do to fix the short end
@dampedspring Demand for duration could come from swaps in the form of received fixed that overwhelms the richening pressure from Teasuries. This would be spread tightnener
@virtualbacon This does not translate into immediate buying of treasuries which is an important point. This facilitates intermediation capacity for broker dealer arms without penalizing their SLR ratio. The decision for banks to mean the end buyers of Treasuries hinges like liquidity needs
The Feds proposal is to reduce the eSLR requirement from current base requirement of 3% plus 2% buffer to a base requirement of 3% plus 50% Method 1 GSIB surcharge. This reduces the requirement from 5% to about 3.5-4.5%.