NFL Stepped Up Boost
0.01 U
Fair value +457663
Steelers ML vs Bengals
Seahawks Commanders Under 40.5
Colts ML vs Texans
Browns ML vs Panthers
Patriots Jaguars Over 45.5
Bills -7 vs Chargers
Chiefs Dolphins Under 45.5
Raiders ML vs Saints
Broncos ML vs Rams
Titans ML vs Giants
Vikings Buccaneers Under 42.5
CFB Saturday 50% AP Boost
0.05 U
Fair value +72055
Wyoming ML vs Hawaii
Ole Miss +4 vs Florida
Iowa State ML vs Utah
Oklahoma State ML vs West Virginia
Missouri ML vs Mississippi State
Stanford ML vs Georgia Tech
Nevada ML vs Air Force
CFB 50% Parlay Boost
0.1 U
Fair value +35690
San Diego State ML vs Toledo
Wyoming ML vs Hawaii
Cincinnati ML vs Kansas State
Missouri ML vs Mississippi State
Stanford ML vs Georgia Tech
Nevada ML vs Air Force
It’s really this simple.
It’s not about who you think will win the game. It’s about the value you’re getting on the bet.
If your bet has a 1/3 chance of cashing, you’re looking at +200 as a fair price.
If a sportsbook is offering you +300, that’s a massive edge.
I don’t care that the bet will only win 33 times out of 100. You only need it to win 25 times out of 100 to break even.
Bet it 100 times at +300 and have it cash 33 times:
33 wins × 3 units = +99 units
67 losses × 1 unit = -67 units
+32 units
Obviously, this example is extreme because you’re rarely going to find that much +EV on a bet.
But that’s the point. You’re not betting on who you think will win. You’re betting on whether the number you’re getting is good enough.
One of the biggest mistakes bettors make.
They ask:
“Who is going to win?”
Instead, ask:
“Is the price being offered better than the probability of the outcome?”
That small change in thinking completely changes how you approach sports betting.