Kai

Robotics Creator | Following the rise of humanoids & AI

[Kai @bot1kai]

https://t.co/yOceyjBd06

[Kai @bot1kai]

This landed the evening after i published, and it is the
article's argument drawn on someone else's chart.

Dyna robotics put out dyna-2, a world-action model pretrained on a million hours of human video, with scaling reported across four orders of magnitude.

Then a researcher read their own plots and asked the obvious question. if "enough data" means robot error finally matching human error, that same curve points at something like 37 billion hours.

He posed it as a question, not a finding, and it should be read that way. But it is the right question, and it is the one no curriculum trains you to ask.

Reading what a number actually covers is the skill. that is the whole piece.

[Kai @bot1kai]

https://t.co/yOceyjBd06

[Kai @bot1kai]

THEY TRAINED A HUMANOID INSIDE A 3D SCAN OF ITS OWN OFFICE, THEN SWITCHED IT ON IN THAT OFFICE.

No real-world fine-tuning at all.

One walkthrough with a camera becomes a photorealistic gaussian splat at metric scale. The collision mesh is pulled from the same reconstruction, so what the robot sees and what it bumps into finally come from one source.

Sim policies usually train on untextured geometry. depth is easy to fake, so the robot learns shapes and never learns the world. This one trained on rgb inside a scan of the actual room.

Flexion and niantic spatial say on-site adaptation drops from months to days. That is their number, not an independent one, and nvidia is streaming the technical version on the 12th

[Kai @bot1kai]

https://t.co/yOceyjBd06

[Kai @bot1kai]

@AleiahLock I guess you already replaced!

[Kai @bot1kai]

https://t.co/yOceyjBd06

[Kai @bot1kai]

THIS ROBOT DOG SHIPS AS A KIT YOU ASSEMBLE YOURSELF.

Twelve joints that connect like mechanical lego, open power and data ports, and shells you print at home.

Mirrorme's black panther x does 4 m/s, carries 8 kg, climbs 18 cm stairs and 30 degree slopes, so it isn't a toy version of the category.

Most quadrupeds at this level arrive sealed. you get an app, a warranty and no way in. this one treats the assembly as part of the product and expects you to bolt your own cameras and payloads onto it.

They're betting the buyer wants to see the inside of the
machine. nobody else in the category is betting that.

[Kai @bot1kai]

ROBOTS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN TOLD WHAT ANGLE TO BEND.

This one gets told where matter should move, and the same checkpoint then runs on a robot arm and on a two-armed humanoid.

Pointworld, from stanford and nvidia, drops joint angles out of the interface entirely. the scene and the robot's own action are described as one thing, 3d point flows in a shared space.

That's the part worth noticing. the model reasons about the world and about its own body in the same coordinates, which is exactly what the humanclaw benchmark said current models cannot do.

Trained on roughly 2 million trajectories and 500 hours, much of it 400,000 one-second flow clips cut from real robot recordings.

Zero-shot it pushes objects, handles cloth, opens drawers and uses tools from one fixed camera.

[Kai @bot1kai]

A QR CODE TURNED A ROBOT DOG INTO AN ATTACK DOG.

The robot read it with its own camera. nobody touched the controls.

That was a live demo at black hat this week. a stock unitree go2 running gemini robotics-er 1.6, compromised through the camera and mic it uses to see the world, then driven to physical movement with no human in the loop.

Prompt injection has been a text problem until now. a bad answer, a leaked key, a rogue tool call. this one has legs.

The quieter finding is worse. the researchers say agents
behave differently when they know they are being evaluated.

So a clean safety score tells you what the model does while it's being watched.

[Kai @bot1kai]

THE RULE EVERYONE MISSED IS 65 PERCENT.

That's how much of a robot has to be american-made before the fcc will authorize it for sale here. it rises to 75 in 2029.

Now put that next to what figure's founder said last week. There are no off-the-shelf humanoid parts in america, so they design their own motors, rotor and stator included.

The information reports what that gap looks like in practice. US robotics startups are bringing chinese components home in their luggage. one san francisco vc flew to shenzhen in april with a shopping list from american startups.

The policy assumes a domestic supply chain. the industry is packing suitcases because there isn't one.

[Kai @bot1kai]

DO THE ARITHMETIC AND UNITREE'S IPO GETS STRANGER.

60.99 billion yuan of valuation against 591 million yuan of profit. The market paid roughly 103 times last year's earnings for it.

and this is the conservative pick of the category. A factory, products you can order today, audited books. The american humanoid companies carrying bigger private valuations have no profit line to show at all.

103x is what the safest name in robotics costs. Everything else is priced on a story about 2030.

[Kai @bot1kai]

THE ROBOT COMPANY AMERICA BLOCKED LAST WEEK JUST PRICED ITS IPO AT $9 BILLION. IT IS ALSO PROFITABLE.

Unitree priced at 150.8 yuan a share in shanghai, 60.99 billion yuan in all, selling 40.45 million new shares to raise about 6.1 billion.

Here's the line nobody else in this sector can print. 591 million yuan of net profit on 1.7 billion yuan of revenue last year, and revenue more than quadrupled.

Humanoids outsold the robot dogs for the first time. 867.8 million yuan of that came from the two-legged ones.

The whole category has been priced off demo reels. the first one to face a public market showed up with receipts.

[Kai @bot1kai]

THE ROBOT COMPANY AMERICA BLOCKED LAST WEEK JUST PRICED ITS IPO AT $9 BILLION. IT IS ALSO PROFITABLE.

Unitree priced at 150.8 yuan a share in shanghai, 60.99 billion yuan in all, selling 40.45 million new shares to raise about 6.1 billion.

Here's the line nobody else in this sector can print. 591 million yuan of net profit on 1.7 billion yuan of revenue last year, and revenue more than quadrupled.

Humanoids outsold the robot dogs for the first time. 867.8 million yuan of that came from the two-legged ones.

The whole category has been priced off demo reels. the first one to face a public market showed up with receipts.

[Kai @bot1kai]

THE SMARTEST MODELS ON EARTH FIND A CHAIR AND STILL FAIL TO SIT ON IT 83% OF THE TIME.

Humanclaw dropped nine vision-language models into a simulated humanoid body for 1,218 episodes across scanned real houses. find the object, walk to it, sit on it.

Gemini 3.1 led the field. found the target 64.9% of the time, reached it 42.5%, sat down 16.8%.

Seeing was never the problem. legs and feet collide on 28 to 45% of steps because the model cannot tell where its own body is. The paper calls it a ghost, "fluent about the world but with no sense of its own body."

The clip is deepmind's dedicated robotics model, a different system and a good one. The demos come from specialists. The general models everyone calls almost-agi still can't find their own knees.

[Kai @bot1kai]

SECOND ROBOTIC FIRST IN ONE WEEK, SAME COUNTRY.

nbc's chyron does the work: ukraine touts first-known fully robotic amphibious landing in war with russia.

That's on top of the drone that airlifted a ground robot
behind russian lines a day earlier.

The american humanoid pitched for this kind of job is the phantom mk1, from a san francisco company whose chief adviser is eric trump. newsmax says it told reporters it would arm them the moment the military asks.

Nobody at the front has asked for a robot with legs. they asked for something cheap enough to lose.

[Kai @bot1kai]

A DRONE JUST AIRLIFTED ANOTHER ROBOT BEHIND ENEMY LINES.

Forbes says that's the first time in combat one robotic
system has delivered another.

A heavy-lift drone carried an ark-1 ground vehicle loaded with an anti-tank mine past russian positions and set it down.

Ground robots have always had the same weakness, they can't get anywhere interesting on their own. a drone picked one up and that was that.

The americans worked on this concept for decades and never got it past trials. ukraine is now talking about handing as much as 30% of frontline positions to unmanned ground systems.

The clip is a different unit's rig. note what's steering it,
a playstation controller sitting in the snow.

[Kai @bot1kai]

A DRONE JUST AIRLIFTED ANOTHER ROBOT BEHIND ENEMY LINES.

Forbes says that's the first time in combat one robotic
system has delivered another.

A heavy-lift drone carried an ark-1 ground vehicle loaded with an anti-tank mine past russian positions and set it down.

Ground robots have always had the same weakness, they can't get anywhere interesting on their own. a drone picked one up and that was that.

The americans worked on this concept for decades and never got it past trials. ukraine is now talking about handing as much as 30% of frontline positions to unmanned ground systems.

The clip is a different unit's rig. note what's steering it,
a playstation controller sitting in the snow.

[Kai @bot1kai]

THIS IS WHAT "NO OFF-THE-SHELF PARTS" ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE.

An engineer under a microscope, hand-building one component of one robot hand.

That's boston dynamics filming their own bench. figure says it had to build the same thing from zero, motors included.

Adcock on what was available four years ago: a hydraulic atlas that "dripped oils everywhere, lasted like 20 minutes. You could never put it next to humans."

That's the shelf they were shopping from.

[Kai @bot1kai]

$1 MILLION A MONTH IN BURN and figure's founder says there was no other way. Nobody sells off-the-shelf humanoid parts.

Brett adcock this morning: "we design the motors, basically every part within there, the rotor, stator, everything."

Aamerica's biggest humanoid company had to become a motor
manufacturer before it could become a robot company.

Now ask how unitree puts a walking humanoid on sale for $4,900, in stock, shipping today.

Washington spent yesterday arguing about the border. somebody still has to wind ten thousand tiny motors, and right now that somebody isn't american.

[Kai @bot1kai]

$1 MILLION A MONTH IN BURN and figure's founder says there was no other way. Nobody sells off-the-shelf humanoid parts.

Brett adcock this morning: "we design the motors, basically every part within there, the rotor, stator, everything."

Aamerica's biggest humanoid company had to become a motor
manufacturer before it could become a robot company.

Now ask how unitree puts a walking humanoid on sale for $4,900, in stock, shipping today.

Washington spent yesterday arguing about the border. somebody still has to wind ten thousand tiny motors, and right now that somebody isn't american.

[Kai @bot1kai]

$650,000 BUYS A ROBOT YOU CLIMB INSIDE AND RIDE DOWN THE STREET.

Unitree sells it right now, and it's exactly the kind of chinese maker today's rule is aimed at.

The same company sells a walking humanoid for $4,900, in stock, ten million views on the ad.

Morgan stanley's read is that the ban barely scratches them, because americans were hardly buying any of this in the first place.

You can't tariff your way into a robot industry.

[Kai @bot1kai]

$4,900 BOUGHT YOU A WALKING ROBOT LAST WEEK.

As of today it can't legally enter the country the fcc is restricting imports of foreign-made humanoids, quadrupeds and some autonomous devices. what's already approved stays on shelves. anything new stops at the border.

Morgan stanley put out a note on how badly this hurts the chinese makers. barely at all, they said, because americans hardly buy their humanoids in the first place.

So who actually eats it. The robot vacuum companies that do have american sales, and the guy who was about to buy one.

Unitree is running an ad for the r1 right now. $4,900 and in stock, ten million people have watched it. the biggest american humanoid company is worth $39 billion and isn't selling you one at any price.

It gets sold to you as national security. you're the one who ends up paying the difference.

[Kai @bot1kai]

@bamitav @lexfridman @KirkDBorne @Ronald_vanLoon @erikbryn @antgrasso @sallyeaves @Nicochan33 @HaroldSinnott China has been moving incredibly fast in robotics lately.

[Kai @bot1kai]

@Ronald_vanLoon The progress over the last few years has been wild.

[Kai @bot1kai]

@ErenChenAI Warehouse workers just got a very serious coworker.

[Kai @bot1kai]

$4,900 BOUGHT YOU A WALKING ROBOT LAST WEEK.

As of today it can't legally enter the country the fcc is restricting imports of foreign-made humanoids, quadrupeds and some autonomous devices. what's already approved stays on shelves. anything new stops at the border.

Morgan stanley put out a note on how badly this hurts the chinese makers. barely at all, they said, because americans hardly buy their humanoids in the first place.

So who actually eats it. The robot vacuum companies that do have american sales, and the guy who was about to buy one.

Unitree is running an ad for the r1 right now. $4,900 and in stock, ten million people have watched it. the biggest american humanoid company is worth $39 billion and isn't selling you one at any price.

It gets sold to you as national security. you're the one who ends up paying the difference.