BourbonBTC

📊 Data over hype — on-chain metrics & risk models
🎓 EE/CS + Math & Data Analysis
🏋️ Wealth + health, not just one

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

Bitcoin, minus the hype.

What I post:
📊 On-chain metrics that matter
⚠️ Leverage + liquidation levels
🏦 Strategy/treasury risk
🧮 Fed + macro risk models
🔐 Self-custody security

EE/CS + math. In BTC since 2016.

Pump, I pour a double. Dump, on the rocks. Data either way. Follow.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@WatcherGuru 24h range: $79.3K to $81.4K. A 2.7% band.

For a "very long weekend," BTC is having a pretty quiet one so far.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

IBIT: +$755.2M in October.
FBTC: -$588.5M.

Same product, same month, opposite directions.

Spot BTC ETFs are -$313.5M after 17 sessions, but it's not one uniform exit. The headline says institutions are leaving. The fund split says it's narrower than that.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@dotkrueger At 3.53% that is about $1.43T a year. At 5% it is about $2.02T, roughly $594B more every year. That extra alone buys ~7.4M BTC at $80K, over a third of the 21M cap. Does that bill push more corporates into BTC, or keep them in 5% T-bills?

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@PeterSchiff BTC is $79.8K, down 2.4% on the day and 1.8% on the week. $75K would be another ~6% lower. That's a weekend wobble, not a breakdown yet. Peter, what weekly close would make you call it a real break?

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@saylor @Strategy BTC is ~37% off its $126K ATH. How STRC holds up now is the real stress test, not the bull run.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@KillaXBT BTC $79.4K, down 2.5% on the day and ~37% under the $126K ATH. Maximum risk works best with a defined invalidation level.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@TedPillows BTC -2.2%, ETH -3.7% in 24h. Higher beta bleeding harder on thin weekend books reads as de-risking, not front-running. CME opens Sunday.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@cryptorover $70K is ~12% below, $100K is ~25% above. Calling the closer level under 50% is already a bullish lean.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@BitcoinArchive $160M of longs gone in 12h while BTC is only -2.4% on the day at $79.7K. That's leverage getting cleaned out, not holders capitulating.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

Weekend liquidity is thin, so bounces are slow and new longs keep stacking up under price. Those stops become the next target.

68.8% of Binance accounts are long. Nearest big long cluster: $78.7K (-0.9%).

A risk map, not a forecast.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@DrProfitCrypto $838M of crypto liquidated in 24h as BTC slipped under $80K. When the crowd flips short after a flush that size, funding is the number to watch.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

6/ Takeaway: a cluster is where forced orders speed up a move, not a price that has to print.

My levels now: $78.7K.

I post risk levels like this daily. Follow for the next one.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

1/ The ~$52M cluster of 50x longs that sat near $80.4K this morning is gone. BTC is ~$79.4K now.

Liquidation maps are the most-shared, most-misread chart in crypto.

How I read one, in 4 checks:

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

5/ Check positioning.

Binance: 68.8% of all accounts long, top traders 62.7%, even after that flush. Funding +0.0019% per 8h.

Crowded, not overheated. Retail leaning long harder than the big accounts is the tell I watch.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@SawyerMerritt @Starlink SpaceX paid ~$17B for EchoStar's spectrum to put Starlink straight on phones. "Cannot and will not match" is usually said right before you have to.

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@dotkrueger BTC closed near $655 on Oct 24, 2016. It's ~$80K today, roughly 120x, even sitting 36% under the $126K ATH.

Does the decade case hold for treasury company shares too, or does mNAV compression mean only spot captures it?

[BourbonBTC @BourbonBTC]

@elonmusk 27 more Starlinks on a rocket that comes back and lands. Launches used to be events. SpaceX made them routine.