Jimmy Boyd

I bet on sports for a living and believe there is no point in being confident and having a small position. The money only goes one way

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

J.J. Spaun +1025 at DraftKings

Spaun gained 4.77 strokes on the field in Round 1 at Colonial, 3.00 of that tee-to-green, and DraftKings is still offering +1025 on the win.

The tee-to-green profile is not a one-round mirage. Spaun's baseline reads 0.829 SG: APP and 0.491 SG: OTT, with 1.055 in driving distance.

He is DataGolf's 20th-ranked player and OWGR No. 9, and he already has two Texas wins including the 2026 Valero last month. He’s chasing a fourth Texas win since 2006. The course fit is real.

I like J.J. Spaun this weekend

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

Swept the premium card yesterday going 2-0 with wins on the Pirates/Astros Under and the Valkyries.

Now 290-225 (+66.12u) on premium MLB since April 2025.

Back at it today with a top play on Giants/Cubs.

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

Memorial Winner End of Round 1:

Justin Rose +2800

Rose fired 3.85 SG: T2G in Round 1 to sit T6 at three-under, and the ball-striking is no fluke. His season-long SG: App rating of 0.51 is his strongest category, and approach play is the single biggest separator at Muirfield Village.

The course history matters. Rose is a former Memorial champion (2010), and he already posted the largest margin of victory on Tour this season with his seven-stroke runaway at the Farmers Insurance Open. The 45-year-old still has the ceiling. He proved it three months ago.

Scheffler is the chalk. Rose is the ball-striker with course pedigree and a wide-open price.

Wind to 20 MPH on Friday is the swing factor, and Rose's tee-to-green floor travels in conditions better than most of this field.

I like Justin Rose at 28/1

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@NUCLRGOLF Not a bad way to start off a tournament!!

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

Pendrith Top 10 at the Memorial +1250 at DraftKings

Our model has Pendrith undervalued for a Top 10 finish this week. He sits top 25 in long-term SG: Approach and ranks well in SG: Off-the-Tee against this field.

The course sets up nice for him with the firm greens and a layout that rewards consistent ball-strikers over pure bombers.

He’s been playing well too. Pendrith has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five starts and his course history here shows multiple made cuts.

I like Taylor Pendrith this week.

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@LudvigTracker Winning on tour is hard. He keeps playing well and puts himself in the right spots and the wins will come

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@NUCLRGOLF Ball is completely in the hole right? Ace

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

I do like the OVER here:

4* VEGAS INSIDER on White Sox/Twins: over 8½ -115

White Sox starter Erick Fedde takes the mound at 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA, and the bottom hasn't shown up yet.

He has given up 10 earned runs over his last 12.2 innings and failed to finish 5 frames in two of his last three starts.

Against him, the Twins send out Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, and Josh Bell, with Minnesota having gone Over in 5 straight games.

The park and weather cooperate.

First pitch at Target Field is 77 degrees with an 11 MPH wind from the SSW, pushing toward left-center.

That's a tailwind for the right-handed pull power Minnesota stacks at the top of the order.

The trends are stacked.

The total has gone Over in 14 of Chicago's last 20 games, 6 straight on the road, and 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings.

When both teams independently trend this hard one direction, the market usually catches up faster than 8.5.

The pushback is real.

Twins starter Taj Bradley owns a 3.21 ERA and has racked up 7-plus strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and the White Sox lineup is missing Murakami.

Fair points.

But Bradley's xERA sits at 3.76, he gave up 4 ER in 4 IP against the Pirates last time out, and Chicago only needs 3 or 4 runs against a Twins bullpen that has been live-or-die all year.

Fedde is the story.

The wind helps.

The trends agree.

I like the Over

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

One MLB game with some wind to factor in today:

CWS @ MIN 12:40p CDT Target Field
83°F · S 13 mph · CROSS · 0% rain

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@RickRunGood @Golfbet @PGATOUR Smalley has looked like he’s ready to break out multiple times. I think his time is coming

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

Cameron Young +2050 at Bookmaker

Young ranks 3rd in DataGolf and 3rd in OWGR with 2.09 SG: Total. The shape matters here. SG: OTT of 0.732 and SG: APP of 0.692 is exactly the ball-striking mix Muirfield Village asks for, long off the tee with iron control into firm, demanding greens. He has also already proven the ceiling in 2026, winning THE PLAYERS in March and the Cadillac Championship at Doral in May. Big venues, deep fields, he closed both.

The opposition case starts and ends with Scottie Scheffler going for three in a row. That is real, and it is why Young is 20/1 instead of 12/1. But three-peats on Tour are historically rare, Stricker in 2011 was the last, and the price already bakes Scheffler's premium in. Young being the World No. 3 priced at a 4.6% number is the inefficiency.

The honest risk is the short game. Young's scrambling was T72 at the PGA Championship and the putter was shaky on short ones, and Muirfield's greens will punish that if it carries over. The ball-striking edge and the price still tilt the read.

I like Cameron Young this week

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@DM724412 It’s like people forget winning golf tournaments requires a little “luck”. Playing this good for this long of time is way more difficult to do

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@dewittknight I couldn’t agree more. Unfortunately my wife strongly disagrees lol

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

I’m a plus handicap who has played thousands of rounds of golf and yet I have never had a hole in one.

I’ve also played thousands of hours of video poker without ever getting a royal flush.

Am I cursed?

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@GoDevilsgo16 I hate you 😂

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

Little bit of wind to take into account for MLB today:

MIA @ NYM 1:40p EDT Citi Field
74°F · W 10 mph · CROSS · 1% rain

DET @ CWS 1:10p CDT Rate Field
64°F · NE 10 mph · CROSS · 1% rain

PHI @ LAD 1:10p PDT Dodger Stadium
78°F · SW 10 mph · OUT · 0% rain

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@ThorbjornOleZyn High of 75, averaging 69, and -77. All three incredible numbers. They aren’t playing cupcake setups in perfect conditions

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@IndianaFever @WNBA @CaitlinClark22 🐐 🐐 🐐

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@NUCLRGOLF That looks like a long two feet

[Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets]

@LouStagner This is embarrassing for the sport