Blue Quadrant

Specialist asset manager with a distinctive investment style blending macroeconomic top-down analysis with fundamental bottom-up valuation across global assets

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

SA Elec Prices (a key production input) is up 4x in USD terms since 2009. What does this mean? 1/

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

Relative USD elec prices today are thus an indicator of where the Rand should trade in order to offset the future erosion of the country's production base. In the absence of an adjustment, SA is very likely to see a CA deficit approaching 7%-10% ofGDP by the end of the decade.

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

SA Elec Prices (a key production input) is up 4x in USD terms since 2009. What does this mean? 1/

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

The decline in relative production competitiveness impacts the country's external balances with a long lag. Mines, factories close only after several years of losses etc. mines don't reinvest in new developing new resources, so they close when the current mine plan ends. 6/

[Personal Finance @persfinza]

The Best (SA-Domiciled) Worldwide Multi-Asset Flexible Fund
Went to the Blue Quadrant Worldwide Flexible Prescient Fund.

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

“Reflation will come to South Africa, the only uncertainty is timeline and whether mandatory or voluntary.
Unfortunately window for a benign, voluntary reflation is almost closed”

https://t.co/OXlu5XlkAY

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

This is what a secular decline looks like ⁦@SoberLook⁩

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

The Investment Case For Gold - Myths And Narratives https://t.co/0eAMO5Rz7Z

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

South Africa And The Impossible Trinity $EZA https://t.co/QO6K18B9Kn

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

Net # of US businesses (small) increasing wages hits an all-time high – September NFIB survey

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

South Africa - Assessing Foreign Currency Funding Risks And Contagion Risks https://t.co/SGHDZHCpqj

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

South Africa - What Is Fair Value For The Rand In A World Of Normalized Interest Rates? https://t.co/DdyJlo2s30

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

Structural features encourage shadow banking in the context of a savings deficient economy

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

However, without reform, India’s financial system will remain fragile and risky

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

However, given large share of assets owned by public banks, fallout may be less severe than Lehman/US

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

As such, India at risk of a negative credit impulse going into 2019

[Blue Quadrant @BQCapital]

India’s shadow banking sector is large for EM and an important funding channel for housing/infrastructure , even micro credit