@poppabitcoins@RaoulGMI I suggest that you educate yourself on all things crypto and macro and once you do, one you won’t have to rely on others and two you’ll know we are no where near the top. I wish you well
@daoway888@RaoulGMI If you’re a member of Real VIsion then you’ll understand the tireless work that both Raoul and his team have put in and continue to put in understanding both the crypto markets, liquidity cycles and the everything code. I suggest and know that’s why he is so confident
Dollar wrecking ball in full swing here.
The dollar’s rapid rise over the past couple of months has massively tightened financial conditions.
This sharp move is already taking a toll on US economic surprises – something I outlined as a base case in the GMI and MIT reports back in Q4 of last year.
Economic surprises have already pulled back from their peak levels in November and are likely to continue drifting lower over the near term. This is exactly the kind of lagged impact we’d expect from such a rapid tightening in financial conditions...
Here’s the important part:
This setup is exactly what I believe will pave the way for the Fed to step in and begin easing rates further soon – despite the prevailing narrative floating around for zero cuts in 2025 and the forward curve currently pricing in just 28bps for the whole year.
However, as I highlighted in my last tweet on the subject, the conditions for a shift towards easing are already falling into place…
So, here’s how I see it playing out:
The dollar and yields surged in Q4, creating a significant tightening in liquidity conditions...
Now, with the lag effect kicking in, weaker economic surprises are emerging, and as those continue to deteriorate, the Fed will have no choice but to respond. When that happens, we’re likely to see the dollar’s strength finally capped and the pressure from rising yields start to ease.
This will then help alleviate the liquidity squeeze that’s been building, giving risk assets the breathing room they need to rally again.
Bad news = good news…
I’ve been following the discussion around the sharp collapse in Chinese yields, and frankly, I haven’t seen a single take that I agree with...
Most see this as a bearish signal, but I believe that view completely misses the mark and overlooks the bigger macro picture at play.
The collapse in yields represents a massive easing of financial conditions, which is hugely consequential – not just for China but for the global economy as a whole.
Moreover, this collapse in yields is a crucial signal for the People's Bank of China (PBoC).
This shift gives the PBoC room to maneuver. With yields falling so fast, the PBoC now has the flexibility to expand their balance sheet again in the near future, inject liquidity, and support growth without destabilizing markets or stoking fears of financial overheating.
It also serves as a green light for pro-growth policies and a counterweight to the deflationary pressures currently present in the system.
So, viewed in the broader context, I don’t see this move as bearish – it signals an opportunity for stabilization and recovery in the future, laying the foundation for stronger global growth momentum later this year.
That’s my contrarian hot take, anyway…
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So you’re telling me the gvt went after just about every single major entity in crypto and even dumped 9 figs of BTC on the open market and it’s still the best performing asset of the year? Lmao
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