One mistake traders often make is focusing only on the quality of the earnings while ignoring the neglected phase before the results. That neglected phase plays a much bigger role than most people realize.
A company may post excellent results, but if the stock has already rallied sharply before the announcement, the good news may already be priced in.
We saw this earlier with HBL Engineering. The company reported stellar earnings, but the stock had already moved up significantly before the results. A similar example is Bajaj Consumer. The company delivered good results, yet the stock wasn't in a neglected phase before the announcement.
This is why you shouldn't get excited about good earnings alone. Ask yourself one important question:
Did these good results come after a neglected phase, or after a strong rally?
If a stock has already been moving higher for weeks or months, there's a good chance the market was already expecting strong results. On the other hand, when a stock has been ignored for a while and then surprises the market with excellent earnings, the reaction is often much stronger.
As a rule of thumb, I like to see at least two to three months of neglect before a strong earnings reaction. In general, the longer the neglected phase before the earnings, the better. A longer period of neglect often means lower expectations, making it easier for the stock to surprise the market and begin a fresh momentum move.
So, the next time you analyse an earnings reaction, don't look at the results alone. Always check what the stock was doing before the announcement. In many cases, the neglected phase is just as important as the earnings themselves.
Its 1.45 am and i cant sleep bec of severe acidity. I have ulcers. And the last time my ulcers threatened to burst i had to be hospitalized & guess what @icicilombard refused to cover my hospitization cost - bec i hadnt declared my ulcers at the time of taking the policy. But i didnt have ulcers at the time of taking the policy and now they are asking for doctors certificates to confirm i didnt have ulcers at the time of taking the policy. Next they will insist on the car number that kills u in advance so ur family can make a claim. Shame on this @ICICILombard . Am so disgusted. I no longer care abt the refund - i will expose the fraud in their operations
इस पोस्ट को जरूर पढ़े अगर आपको पता करना है की किसी कंपनी को मिला ऑर्डर फेक है या genuine
-अगर कंपनी बार बार अपने क्लाइंट का नाम छुपा रही है, तो यह एक बड़ा रेड फ्लैग है।
अगर क्लाइंट का नाम दिया गया है और वह कोई भारतीय कंपनी है तो एमसीए की वेबसाइट पर जाकर उस कंपनी का स्टेटस चेक करें।
क्या वह कंपनी एक्टिव है?
उसका टर्नओवर कितना है?
कहीं वह कोई शेल कंपनी तो नहीं है जो सिर्फ कागजों पर चल रही हो?
-अगर foreign कंपनी है तो गूगल पर उस कंपनी के बारे में चेक करे ।
-अगर ऑर्डर रेलवे, डिफेंस, पावर ग्रिड, NHAI या किसी PSU की तरफ से मिला है, तो उसे आसानी से वेरीफाई किया जा सकता है उस विभाग की वेबसाइट के 'Tenders' या 'Award of Contract' सेक्शन में जाकर कंपनी का नाम और बिड अमाउंट सर्च करें।
वहां आपको टेंडर अलॉटमेंट का आधिकारिक डॉक्यूमेंट मिल जाएगा।
-कई बार प्रमोटर्स अपनी ही किसी सिस्टर कंसर्न या प्रमोटर-ग्रुप की कंपनी से अपनी लिस्टेड कंपनी को बड़ा ऑर्डर दिलवा देते हैं ताकि मार्केट में हाइप बनाई जा सके।
-अगर कोई बड़ा ऑर्डर मिला है और वह असली है, तो आने वाले क्वार्टर्स के फाइनेंशियल स्टेटमेंट्स में चेक करे की
क्या बैलेंस शीट में 'Current Liabilities' के तहत ग्राहकों से मिला एडवांस बढ़ा है जो की “ Advance from customers “ में दिखेगा ।
क्या कंपनी ने ऑर्डर पूरा करने के लिए Raw Material खरीदना शुरू किया है?
इससे उनकी इन्वेंट्री या CWIP में बढ़ोतरी दिखेगी।
-Order Book-to-Sales Ratio को चेक करे यह अगर ऑर्डर बुक लगातार बढ़ रही है लेकिन सेल्स में कोई बढ़ोतरी नहीं हो रही है, तो समझ जाएं कि ऑर्डर केवल कागजों पर हैं, जमीन पर नहीं।
#stockmarket
A man lights a cigarette while sitting in a cab.
CAB DRIVER: Sir, did you ask me before lighting a cigarette? Smoking is not allowed in my car.
MAN: Why should I ask you? It’s not your car, it’s a taxi. You can’t just say smoking isn’t allowed 😳
DRIVER: I am cancelling the ride. I don’t want your money. Please get out of my car. I’m a taxi driver, not your servant 😠
There is no stat, and I suggest not to find one.
The general idea to trading deep pullbacks is to allow them time. Watch them closely at key zones when demand or supply feels completely dead , that dead silence after the flush is usually the exact moment institutions are quietly reloading while everyone else has already given up. Or when it starts doing some shaky action mixed with sideways movement those choppy, low-conviction candles are the market’s way of saying the weak hands are finally exhausted and floating supply is drying up fast.
This is where patience separates the winners from the crowd. It’s not about catching the absolute bottom ,it’s about waiting for the setup to prove the Supply are super low & Even Small Demand can kick it up .I live by this approach because it keeps my risk small and my winners massive.
No stats needed. Just price, time, and the feel of dead supply turning into fresh buying force.
I Don't want to be Like Man Mohan Singh - FM Nirmala
Respected Madam You can not be even if you want.
Man Mohan singh & Chidambaram ji faced media in Crisis.
But You and your minister disappeared like you were never exist.
FII Gone , because your one statement - Rupee & Economy is suffering.
Man mohan singh ji cared for middle class and he took every possible decision which help meddle class survive but in your tenure middle class is on ventilator.
& Stock market is in Coma.
Vladimir Putin kneels to present the Order of Friendship to Paralympic champion Ivan Golubkov ~meeting him at eye level, no stage, no ego.
True respect knows no height. 🇷🇺🫡
@themiz235h@abhi2010ahm because #mrpl refines crude to make refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, etc. Cost of these products are not going to fall in near future, so their margins are expected to be higher compared to where it was before the war.