Brian Winter

Latin American politics & barbecue. Editor-in-chief @amerquarterly "O mais brasileiro dos texanos." Opinions mine.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

The shocking thing about Lava Jato was how it touched almost EVERYBODY in the political class and beyond. 10+ years later, surprise, surprise, it's happening again with Banco Master. Core issue(s) still unresolved.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

"Keiko Fujimori took office on July 28 with something no Peruvian president has enjoyed in a decade: a functioning economy and the benefit of the doubt. Polls have put her approval between 53% and 60%, with disapproval near 30%. After eight presidents in 10 years, Peruvians are prepared to be optimistic on modest evidence.

... Foreign investors have read all of this as policy continuity, and about the macroeconomics they are right. What that view misses is that Peru’s macroeconomic strength has coexisted for decades with a state that cannot pipe drinkable water into a house, police a neighborhood, or finish a subway line. That gap has been eating away at the country’s politics, and closing it is what President Fujimori was elected to do."

-- Luis Miguel Castilla for AQ
https://t.co/nSZUo00OGv

[Vera Bergengruen @VeraMBergen]

Maria Corina Machado breaks her silence on Trump's Venezuela oil deal—sharply criticizing how it was struck while being careful not to attack Trump or the idea of US access to Venezuelan oil.

Also 👀 “The enemies of the United States in Venezuela are today in Miraflores.”

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Como equilibrar derechos civiles/humanos y la lucha contra el crimen organizado? El caso chileno ha sido interesante, Kast fue obligado a dar marcha atrás con por lo menos una parte de su agenda de seguridad. Hablo de esta experiencia aquí

[Eduardo Thomson @ethomson1]

Episodio de hoy tuvo invitado especial: @BrazilBrian , de @AmerQuarterly , estuvo hoy hablando de agendas de seguridad y derechos en América Latina en el capitulo del podcast.

https://t.co/4NFe4Zd5H5

[boz @bloggingsbyboz]

Chevron's plans to expand in Venezuela are real and operate separately from the political shenanigans surrounding the other oil deals. It's positive news for the country and should survive any future political transition in Venezuela or the US.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@ChrisJKennedy @Moraimag @WSJForero Whether such a deal is honored over time is a different question!!

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

I believe Secretary Rubio is 100% committed to the cause of democracy in Venezuela, and that President Trump has doubts. That how the secretary manages this issue will determine not just the future of Venezuela but also possibly the next occupant of the White House. The secretary must know he cannot one day go home to South Florida when this is all over with the chavistas still in charge. I personally find him consistently persuasive on Venezuela and acknowledge that, if you support recovery and eventual democratization, this process has gone better than virtually any outside analyst could have imagined on Jan 2. I think the president is more worried about oil prices and his legacy and believes he has a “sure thing” in Delcy. I believe (speculate, based on public statements and reporting) that Trump is still open to Rubio’s arguments but that the worse Iran gets, the less likely he is to upset status quo in Venezuela because in his mind the two are intimately connected. I feel like when Rubio speaks publicly on this issue he is sometimes lobbying his boss. They may both wonder if this is the issue that ultimately drives them apart. At stake is a country of ~30 million but also potentially the Republican nominee for 2028. Anyway, I usually try to be less speculative in my analysis but have found over the years that these personal dynamics are so often what drive the fate of nations — two in this case. Time will tell

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@Moraimag @WSJForero I suspect -- speculating, again -- that a transition agreement, if one happens, will require all parties to respect contracts and agreements signed during this interim period.

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@JeudielMartine1 Tengo mis divergencias con Rubio, pero en este caso sí le creo

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

https://t.co/GEeAbeH52N

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

The Bolsonaros, like others in the global new right including Milei & Trump, have struggled with women voters. Lula currently leads by 9, but his advantage is at risk because of inflation & other pocketbook issues. Can Flávio Bolsonaro capitalize? @traumann writing for AQ:

[JP Spinetto @JPSpinetto]

The situation of Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes in Brazil is getting more & more complicated and may soon hit Lula's campaign

With five weeks to the election, the stakes are starting to get higher in Brasília

the latest via @danielcarvalho_ https://t.co/WJ0FZT7sxZ

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@pavlospaulus Never considered reading a self-help book in Portuguese, sorry 👍

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Unlike Javier Milei, Renan Santos is registering less than 5% with a month to go, and has now suddenly been passed in polls by an entirely different outsider candidate who even experienced Brasilianistas had to google. “Wait, who??”

[The Economist @TheEconomist]

Like Javier Milei, Brazil’s Renan Santos mixes his dogmatism with rock music, fronting a band that extols the virtues of competition and low taxes. Also like Mr Milei, Mr Santos is a political outsider https://t.co/LxuXyC09p2

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@JMMartinezPiva @cepal_onu @JoseMSalazarX @JosepBorrellF @ONUMX @Anncovel @RaquelSerur3 @Gaceta_UNAM 🙏🙏

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

I have never spoken in a venue quite like this one. It was a great honor to be in Mexico City, and share a stage with President Bachelet, for the launch of @cepal_onu special commission on Latin America's geopolitical & economic future. Thank you to UNAM and rector Leonardo Lomelí for hosting us as we continue this "road show" of the report we spent 18 months preparing under guidance of @JoseMSalazarX You can see more here: https://t.co/DVKgrRjCvB

[Francisco J. Monaldi @fmonaldi]

Reposting since it is still as relevant as it was in January...

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@Arturo_Sarukhan @SAISHopkins @JohnsHopkins Do you allow people to audit ;)

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

@Moraimag @ligiabolivar Love it

[Brian Winter @BrazilBrian]

Americobras?
Pemerica?
What a world