Always bet the break

Don't bet the break...
(Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory)

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Lidl-Trek quickly moving from Gee acquisition to Gall acquisition:

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@TheDailyPeloton The point of a minimum bike weight rule is for rider safety. It’s in everyone’s best interest to have it.

Without it, teams and riders would be incentivized to strip even more away, trading safety and reliability for performance.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

The Wiebes bike weight case sounds like the Froome salbutamol case:

“We weren’t trying to break the rules, we were just trying to push the envelope as far as possible. And this time it went over the line and broke the rules. But we weren’t trying to, so it shouldn’t count.”

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Larry Warbasse, the day after his job was holding off Vingegaard on Piancavallo, learning his job is to chase down Ganna on the flat.

If you can try to do both those things, and be a multilingual mentor to young cyclists, you too may be able to be a domestique at a high level.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

I don’t think SD Word deliberately used an underweight bike. I don’t think Sky deliberately pushed Froome over the limit.

But I think both tried to get as close as possible, missed, and that’s a risk you run and you have to pay the price.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Two of the most memorable teammate moments from Giro 21.

Now, five years later, the two leaders have become the great gregarios.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

On TCP, @friebos mentioned having talked to Sepp Kuss, who said that he struggled to recover the following year(s) from doing 3 GTs in 2023, even though he performed well that year.

Thomas De Gendt said the exact same for himself when he did that program in 2019.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@chisportzguy @laflammerouge16 Exactly.

Ciccone saying "We had an agreement!"
Gee saying "There was no agreement!"

If team's can't be trusted to share and honor promises, than I think it's hard to make agreements with them.

The fault is with Ciccone/Gee not communicating, IMO.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Even Trek are agreeing with what happened, and the message is clear:

If you make an agreement with a Trek rider, you cannot have faith that their team will follow it.

It's a bad choice to burn your reputation this way, because there are always little deals in the peloton.

[Domestique @Domestique___]

🇨🇦 Gee-West explains Red Bull KM incident with 🇨🇴 Rubio

"I don't know if he [Rubio] had made an understanding with someone else or something, but I thought it was fair game"

📰 https://t.co/ZGQy7YJAtO

📸 Cor Vos

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@EchelonsHub @laflammerouge16 Rubio wanting what for no apparent reason

The Red Bull KM is a sizeable competition and prize, and is worth trying to get. And clearly Rubio told Ciccone he wanted it, and Ciccone didn’t tell Gee.

Ciccone is making promises on behalf of his team, then not telling his team.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

So Lidl-Trek wanted Rubio to accept the deal of: “Giulio gets all the KOMs, Derek gets the Red Bull KM, and you don’t get anything and don’t even try”?

If Trek says “not a negotiation, we race for everything” then don’t be pissed when Rubio races for it!

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@laflammerouge16 @EchelonsHub Fine!

But then Ciccone can’t make the deal in the first place and also cannot get angry when Rubio sprints for a KoM after Lidl challenged him for RB KM

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@wielervrspllng He has been correct in all 3 major brouhahas he's been involved with.

Why chase Ganna in the Giro and do De Gendt's work for him?

Not his job to drag Pinot to a finishing climb

Clearly Trek riders were making deals without being able to enforce them within their team.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Ciccone says "I get KOMs, you get RB KM"
Rubio says yes
Ciccone takes Cima Coppi, fine.
Gee sprints and takes RB KM
Rubio says "WTF we had a deal"
Gee says "I had no deal"
Ciccone says "I can't control what Gee does 🤷‍♂️"

Rubio miffed. There's no more deal & Lidl screwed him over.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

If you read the quotes, it seems clear what happened:
Ciccone made a promise that he had no control over (basically that Trek wouldn't sprint for Red Bull, then Gee did).

If you make an agreement on behalf of your team, you can't have a teammate undermine it.

[CyclingUpToDate @CyclingUpToDat3]

“They didn’t keep their word” - Einer Rubio and Giulio Ciccone throw mutual accusations after broken deal

https://t.co/8r6ycBd3bY

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@RenzoDeMeyere @laflammerouge16 But minor difference between "Gee 1st, Storer 2nd" and letting rubio take it and maybe it's 2nd and 3rd in some order.

But - if Gee wants to race for it, fine. But if you're not letting Rubio get anything, you can't be surprised when he doesn't roll over for what you want.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@freddiejevans_ He wanted the Cima Coppi because that’s a big deal. Then Trek raced him for the RB KM when it’s something he valued and was not that important for them.

If they race him for stuff he cares about, then he’ll race them for stuff they care about.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

@laflammerouge16 I would guess there was never a spoken agreement - but it seems to me that *if* anybody is “in the wrong” it would be Trek.

They gain basically nothing from the RB sprint. Especially since it’s mainly Gee to Storer who came 2nd.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

I love this man Rubio.

You boys want to go bike racing? Let’s go bike racing.

[Always bet the break @BreakAlways]

Two years ago, Piganzoli (21) and Pellizzari (20) delighted the race, got GT experience, and lifted the profile of Italian Pro Conti teams.

Since then, structure and incentives have shifted those kinds of riders to WT Dev Teams, which makes for a much less rich sport.