Yang

[DaYou.Dev ⛏ Swift 大好き @jauyou]

Today is the U.S. stock options expiration day (OpEx). My current holdings include GOOGL, TSLA, and AAPL. Here are the pre-market prices:
GOOGL: $364
TSLA: $498
AAPL: $297
Time to map out the pre-market strategy.
#OptionsExpiration #PreMarketStrategy

[Rise and Resist @riseandresistny]

We closed down Tesla in NYC. Thank you to everyone who joined us. PEOPLE POWER⚡️

Well we, went down to the rich man's house and we 🎶
Took back what he stole from us
Took back our dignity
Took back our humanity
📣Resistance Revival Chorus

#TeslaTakedown #StoptheCoup #Resist

[Yang @breakbrake17]

https://t.co/GoRp34i0Fn

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

How should the government treat uninsured depositors after a bank run?

It's a question Jay Powell faced as an assistant Treasury secretary in January 1991, and it's recounted in my book (which is worth reading if you're interested in how Powell operates) https://t.co/zYOlqHwoSK

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

I agree with this …esp the over reaction to the robust data lately.

[雷司紀 Raysky @rayskyinvest]

我自己在這段時間，常常就會突然想到：

「對了，之前看過有人拿來 #ChatGPT 來做 ooxx 的應用」

然後就要花很多時間去翻 FB 貼文，很沒效率。

所以這篇文章也是整理給我自己看的筆記，而且取之於網路，回饋於網路，這樣才能一起變得更好！

https://t.co/I4PUkzgLD5

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Soft vs hard landing:

What if the plane starts reaccelerating before it touches the airstrip? Does better global growth and a tight US labor market put a "no landing" in play?

“In our view, ‘no landing’ is just a soft or hard landing waiting to happen.” https://t.co/gutOWVJlLc

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

I fleshed out my thoughts on housing and the business cycle in Barron's

As I've been writing here less formally, the Fed pivot was ill-conceived in tolerating FCI loosening

Lack of layoffs in construction + some real reacceleration = more NGDP growth

https://t.co/OsL9cFJT53

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

My latest article discusses the switchover from the Fed operating at a profit to operating at a loss, the subsequent elimination of remittances to the Treasury, and what implications this can have.
https://t.co/gxtUreLe55

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

You’ve maybe been thinking too much about macro and the Fed (or are just a huge nerd) when your first thought after seeing this sign at the eye doctor is “wait, that’s core PCE services ex-housing!”

[Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes]

Little birdie told me @KyleLDavies and @zhusu completed their raise. Must be the beginnings of a bull market if these muppets get money less than one year after they torched $18 billion on shitcoins. I ain’t mad at ya, but homeboy needs his money back lift tickets be expensive

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Policy makers have to worry about “the next inflation problem.”

If the economy continues to add more than 200,000 jobs a month without a large increase in the labor supply, “whatever labor market tightness you have now would look worse in six months.” https://t.co/DEWaieCjCb

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

As Yogi said, it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.

These are the FOMC calls that some of the most careful Fed watchers had 12 months ago.

The Fed raised rates at seven meetings last year. One increase was 25 bps, two were 50 bps, and four were 75 bps.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

This is why I believe a decade of persistently high inflation is inevitable.

[Stephen Miran @SteveMiran]

Some notes on the missing recession 🧵

I, like others, expected a recession for most of 2022, to occur around the turn of the year. I was pretty consistent with this call, having first made it in March/April

Hasn't happened yet, at least in the data currently available. Why?

[Yang @breakbrake17]

@kw666_2006 @aiwendiyiwanni1 @DFSGDFH86913597 如果劇本按照紐約聯儲1月發佈的美元霸權2.0劇本，另一個方式就是造成全世界衰退，強美元循環就開啟

[Yang @breakbrake17]

@kw666_2006 @aiwendiyiwanni1 @DFSGDFH86913597 是否有可能正在走80年代索羅斯的雷根大循環的劇本，美元要維持霸權，必須提高利率到更高，吸引資本回流美國，並且提高預算赤字使之大於貿易逆差，才能提振經濟，只要貿易逆差持續<資本的流入讓美元維持強勢，強勢美元又能吸引更多的資本流入，產生美元霸權。強美元弱化全球經濟，通貨膨漲自然降溫？

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Don't worry about underfunded retirement funds - Gov will bail them out. Btw a lot has been promised and a lot will be printed.

https://t.co/tND0jkAFAG

[Bloomberg @business]

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the perception that China and the US are “dangerously close to a military war” is having detrimental effects on the world and paralyzing activity https://t.co/Jo4eAWTBF3

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Regulators are looking to broaden trading in the immense $24 trillion market for U.S. Treasury securities, a potential power shift away from the small club of big banks that have dominated the market for decades, according to a forthcoming federal report. https://t.co/lcvub0HXpw