Breakpoint. @breakpointAV - Twitter Profile

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6 months ago

I will leave you with this, I'm headed out for the weekend. Keep this regime info in mind when opening longs, not that I think anyone should be on a Friday afternoon with Trump in office. $SPY $QQQ $VIX @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. I will leave you with this, I'm headed out for the weekend. Keep this regime info in mind when opening longs, not that I think anyone should be on a Friday afternoon with Trump in office.

$SPY $QQQ $VIX
@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/ZUMXhWN9DU

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$MRCY Mercury Systems is a defense electronics company that sits one level below the big prime contractors in the supply chain. The primes-Lockheed Martin, Raytheon/RTX, Northrop Grumman-build total weapons platforms (think F-35's). Mercury builds the brains inside those platforms: the ruggedized computing modules, signal processors, RF subsystems and electronic warfare electronics that make radar, missile guidance and sensor systems actually work. This is what the company calls “mission-critical processing at the edge,” meaning getting high-speed signal processing into the physical hardware that goes onto aircraft, ships and ground vehicles.

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $MRCY

Mercury Systems is a defense electronics company that sits one level below the big prime contractors in the supply chain. The primes-Lockheed Martin, Raytheon/RTX, Northrop Grumman-build total weapons platforms (think F-35's).

Mercury builds the brains inside those platforms: the ruggedized computing modules, signal processors, RF subsystems and electronic warfare electronics that make radar, missile guidance and sensor systems actually work. This is what the company calls “mission-critical processing at the edge,” meaning getting high-speed signal processing into the physical hardware that goes onto aircraft, ships and ground vehicles.

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$CRDO Obviously I think that the rotation back into AI has already begun, and the infrastructure play will roll out over the next few years barring a massive disruption. Let's go through what CRDO does. Credo is a fabless semiconductor company that makes high-speed connectivity chips and cable assemblies for AI data centers. The business is almost entirely product sales today. Product sales comprised roughly 97.5% of total revenue in the most recent reported quarter, with IP licensing making up the remaining 2.5%. That licensing stub used to be a bigger part of the story when Credo licensed its SerDes intellectual property to other chipmakers, but the company has deliberately shifted toward product revenue because the margins are better and the volumes are exploding. Within products, the flagship is the Active Electrical Cable, or AEC. These are copper cables with Credo's own digital signal processor (DSP) chips embedded at each end, allowing them to carry data at speeds that passive copper cannot sustain over meaningful distances. At 800G and now 1.6T data rates, passive copper reaches its physical limits within a rack; Credo's AECs use thin, flexible cabling with built-in signal processing, reducing rack weight and improving airflow while extending reach to seven meters. The rest of the IC portfolio includes optical DSPs (chips that sit inside optical transceivers) and PCIe retimers (chips that clean up signal integrity between CPUs, GPUs, and storage within a server). If Credo vanished tomorrow, the companies building the world's largest AI training clusters would face a shortage of qualified, high-reliability copper interconnects at the exact moment demand for GPU connectivity is compounding, with no drop-in substitute at commercial scale. The bigger asterisk is customer concentration. A single customer generated 67% of total fiscal 2025 revenue. By Q3 fiscal 2026 that had diversified somewhat to a top-three of 39%, 32%, and 17%, but this is still a business that can lose 30% of its revenue if one hyperscaler pauses its cluster buildout or decides to shift to a competitor or internal solution. This is not a good business characteristic; it is a necessary feature of serving a market with only five or six meaningful buyers. CEO Bill Brennan made the correct early bet on AEC, has been transparent about lumpy revenue patterns, and resisted the temptation to diversify too early into markets the team didn't know. The DustPhotonics deal is the first major test of whether that discipline holds at larger capital outlays. If you believe in Credo you're buying that hyperscaler AI CapEx continues compounding for at least three more years, that no single hyperscaler builds or buys a competitive internal AEC solution, and that Credo can successfully transition from copper specialist to full-stack optical player before co-packaged optics makes the AEC market structurally smaller.

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $CRDO

Obviously I think that the rotation back into AI has already begun, and the infrastructure play will roll out over the next few years barring a massive disruption.

Let's go through what CRDO does.

Credo is a fabless semiconductor company that makes high-speed connectivity chips and cable assemblies for AI data centers. The business is almost entirely product sales today. Product sales comprised roughly 97.5% of total revenue in the most recent reported quarter, with IP licensing making up the remaining 2.5%. That licensing stub used to be a bigger part of the story when Credo licensed its SerDes intellectual property to other chipmakers, but the company has deliberately shifted toward product revenue because the margins are better and the volumes are exploding.

Within products, the flagship is the Active Electrical Cable, or AEC. These are copper cables with Credo's own digital signal processor (DSP) chips embedded at each end, allowing them to carry data at speeds that passive copper cannot sustain over meaningful distances. At 800G and now 1.6T data rates, passive copper reaches its physical limits within a rack; Credo's AECs use thin, flexible cabling with built-in signal processing, reducing rack weight and improving airflow while extending reach to seven meters. The rest of the IC portfolio includes optical DSPs (chips that sit inside optical transceivers) and PCIe retimers (chips that clean up signal integrity between CPUs, GPUs, and storage within a server).

If Credo vanished tomorrow, the companies building the world's largest AI training clusters would face a shortage of qualified, high-reliability copper interconnects at the exact moment demand for GPU connectivity is compounding, with no drop-in substitute at commercial scale.

The bigger asterisk is customer concentration. A single customer generated 67% of total fiscal 2025 revenue. By Q3 fiscal 2026 that had diversified somewhat to a top-three of 39%, 32%, and 17%, but this is still a business that can lose 30% of its revenue if one hyperscaler pauses its cluster buildout or decides to shift to a competitor or internal solution. This is not a good business characteristic; it is a necessary feature of serving a market with only five or six meaningful buyers. CEO Bill Brennan made the correct early bet on AEC, has been transparent about lumpy revenue patterns, and resisted the temptation to diversify too early into markets the team didn't know. The DustPhotonics deal is the first major test of whether that discipline holds at larger capital outlays.

If you believe in Credo you're buying that hyperscaler AI CapEx continues compounding for at least three more years, that no single hyperscaler builds or buys a competitive internal AEC solution, and that Credo can successfully transition from copper specialist to full-stack optical player before co-packaged optics makes the AEC market structurally smaller.

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

TP's all hit. Will rerun some analysis on this name $FLYW

T B @TB5899588190013

4 months ago

@breakpointAV Looking good post earnings.

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$QBTS everyone pile back into tech names, it'll be fun

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$FTK Earnings beats have been accelerating from -45% to +254% across the last four quarters. As you know I love a good re-rate story.... $BAND history doesn't repeat itself but it damn sure rhymes..

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $FTK Earnings beats have been accelerating from -45% to +254% across the last four quarters. As you know I love a good re-rate story....

$BAND history doesn't repeat itself but it damn sure rhymes.. https://t.co/1mkE7maepg

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$AAON data center cooling orders are converting to revenue faster than expected, which means analysts who cut estimates after the July margin miss are now chasing the revision cycle. Could be an explosive earnings call... Wait for lower NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $AAON data center cooling orders are converting to revenue faster than expected, which means analysts who cut estimates after the July margin miss are now chasing the revision cycle. Could be an explosive earnings call...

Wait for lower

NFA https://t.co/TMrppR0CN7

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$USAR PORTFOLIO IS EATING TODAY BABY

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$USAR I love this name popping up in the system. HEAVY emphasis on supply chain security. Huge prio for the Trump admin. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $USAR

I love this name popping up in the system. HEAVY emphasis on supply chain security. Huge prio for the Trump admin.

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/jqALvsDtod

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$BAND Are you not entertained???

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$BAND Analysis speaks for itself on this one, we could be due for a full rerate of the company from Infra > software. I am skeptical on the software industry as a whole due to AI influence, but anything to do with 911 services / government contracting is not likely to be replaced so quickly. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $BAND

Analysis speaks for itself on this one, we could be due for a full rerate of the company from Infra > software.

I am skeptical on the software industry as a whole due to AI influence, but anything to do with 911 services / government contracting is not likely to be replaced so quickly.

@breakpointAV | NFA

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

@theholisticnick Gut

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$ACMR Company went from missing by 37% to beating by 32% in four quarters. China fab capex is live again and the street has not repriced it yet MAG 7 earnings can provide a nice boost too. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $ACMR

Company went from missing by 37% to beating by 32% in four quarters. China fab capex is live again and the street has not repriced it yet

MAG 7 earnings can provide a nice boost too.

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/bOPV3aKrDf

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$CORZ there has definitely been some room to run...

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$CORZ Believe there's some room to run here on what is essentially an industry changeup on these bitcoin miner names. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $CORZ

Believe there's some room to run here on what is essentially an industry changeup on these bitcoin miner names.

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/VTrHlZyOaV

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$BAND one of the portfolio's biggest winners.

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$BAND Analysis speaks for itself on this one, we could be due for a full rerate of the company from Infra > software. I am skeptical on the software industry as a whole due to AI influence, but anything to do with 911 services / government contracting is not likely to be replaced so quickly. @breakpointAV | NFA

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$MRTN 3 straight quarters of earnings beats, with an increasing surprise %. Short term play off earnings tonight @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $MRTN

3 straight quarters of earnings beats, with an increasing surprise %. Short term play off earnings tonight

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/raNynxuMUS

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@breakpointAV

4 months ago

$SPXC 4 straight earnings beats, looking for a 5th. May not be able to get an entry in time, but that's discipline for ya @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $SPXC

4 straight earnings beats, looking for a 5th. May not be able to get an entry in time, but that's discipline for ya

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/RkJaofXo6T

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@breakpointAV

5 months ago

Not even near HOD, enjoy everyone

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

5 months ago

$USAR BEEN WAITING ON THIS ONE TO SHOW UP AGAIN. USA Rare Earths is the only U.S. rare earth separator with signed offtakes to Lockheed and Raytheon, but analysts are still modeling this as speculative mining. Pentagon funding decision in Q3 reprices the entire thesis or kills it. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $USAR

BEEN WAITING ON THIS ONE TO SHOW UP AGAIN.

USA Rare Earths is the only U.S. rare earth separator with signed offtakes to Lockheed and Raytheon, but analysts are still modeling this as speculative mining. Pentagon funding decision in Q3 reprices the entire thesis or kills it.

@breakpointAV | NFA

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@breakpointAV

5 months ago

$USAR BEEN WAITING ON THIS ONE TO SHOW UP AGAIN. USA Rare Earths is the only U.S. rare earth separator with signed offtakes to Lockheed and Raytheon, but analysts are still modeling this as speculative mining. Pentagon funding decision in Q3 reprices the entire thesis or kills it. @breakpointAV | NFA

Breakpoint.

@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$USAR I love this name popping up in the system. HEAVY emphasis on supply chain security. Huge prio for the Trump admin. @breakpointAV | NFA

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@breakpointAV

5 months ago

@TB5899588190013 Trim was great on your end man. Yeah, with oil prices still trading heavily above ~$65, upward pressure remains. Geopolitical risk of a deal is your main concern right now. Retest right around our entry and bounce looks solid to me. Cheers brotha!

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@breakpointAV

6 months ago

$CRGY — insiders bought the breakout at $11.63. Shorts are 11% of float and underwater. Four straight earnings beats say the market is underpricing cash flow at these oil prices. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $CRGY — insiders bought the breakout at $11.63. Shorts are 11% of float and underwater. Four straight earnings beats say the market is underpricing cash flow at these oil prices.

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/bMmZRVmR4T

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@breakpointAV

5 months ago

$MCS I'm just gonna state the obvious... 2026 feels like the biggest year for movies we've had in a while The last three times this company beat estimates, short covering added ~12% to the post-earnings move within a week. @breakpointAV | NFA

breakpointAV's tweet photo. $MCS

I'm just gonna state the obvious... 2026 feels like the biggest year for movies we've had in a while

The last three times this company beat estimates, short covering added ~12% to the post-earnings move within a week.

@breakpointAV | NFA https://t.co/n2Fpf1ZW1L

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@breakpointAV

5 months ago

$ROAD continues to grind upward as we enter prime paving season, large tailwinds driving this from infra spending. Earnings in 18 days. @breakpointAV | NFA