@TheTonus But when he removed Wedgewood from the model it hardly made any change to the averages. If wedgewood was so highly weighted, wouldn’t the averages change massively once it was removed?
@realPrestonHill What do you mean? The point of an aggregator is to include all polls even seemingly weak polls. But they weight polls based on how established and proven they’ve been in past. So Wedgwood would not be weighted as much as say a Wall Street journal poll for example.
@theMiddleEighty@BreakingBraavos@NateSilver538 The average of the polls says the dem in Kansas is up by 1%. That’s within the margin of error. Thats not predicting a dem win. This isn’t hard. If there’s a polling error the R could win by several percent. As could the D if error is in opposite direction.
@dontbanjake@hexane360@MrMaitra@grok How many students in the last entering undergrad class did that apply to? Children of H1-B visa holders (or whatever you’re arguing) who moved to Texas between 12-24 months before they applied. Are you arguing that number is in the 100’s or 1000’s? Or do you think it’s like ten?
@dontbanjake@SylviaStallone@hexane360@MrMaitra@grok But it seems like you should be arguing that they SHOULD go into the non-Texas resident category, which does place them in that 10% non resident pool shared with international applicants.
@Will63946606@LappieM@NateSilver538 Republicans were frothing at the mouth psychotically angry. Passage of “Obamacare” was a big part of that if memory serves me. But there may have been something else unique about Obama that I can’t put my finger on that made republicans so angry. Hmmm.
@SerenaAbutilon@DrKERMD The patient had a BMI of 70 and obesity hypoventilation syndrome to the point of needing a trach. Do you think a person with a BMI of 70 could have a “normal middle aged body” as you put it? And no good doctor is encouraging patients to have BMI’s of 18.
@John_Zannis Agree with everything you said and I’ve never met another person who shares this view. I liked BB, but never understood the near universal worship of it. I felt it was so obviously a tier below the Sopranos, the Wire, and Madmen.
@blake_numb55253@unclebeefcake@NateSilver538 Everyone was wrong in 2016 but Nate gave Trump a 30% chance which was more than anyone else. His 2018 projections were accurate. Polls overestimated Biden in ‘20 but he still won so projection accurate. He overestimated republicans in 2022. In 2024 he a predicted a 50-50 tossup.
@Cassiodorus2025@NateSilver538 If you think all polls are fake, why even follow Nate? His entire thing is averaging polls. You’ll never see a post that doesn’t anger you.
@Generation4580@Teacherlhs@NateSilver538@JasonKPargin 51% is not implicitly predicting a victory. Only People who don’t understand probabilities take it that way. If I see someone at 51% that tells me it’s a coin toss.
To my fellow physicians who were there - during COVID:
We do not need to re-litigate reality with anonymous avatars.
We cancelled surgeries.
We converted wards.
We ran oxygen at capacity.
Some hospitals reopened dormant wings just to expand beds.
Others were wall-to-wall COVID.
We watched patients desaturate in real time.
Now the revisionists arrive.
“They were empty.”
“You’re lying.”
“That’s AI.”
“You’re not real.”
"You killed them."
When argument fails, they erase. When erasure fails, they accuse.
This is historical vandalism performed by people who were wrong then and are wrong now. People who mostly sit on their chats and convince one another.
They will be wrong tomorrow.
I've learned that I do not owe time to those who have built an identity around denial.
History does not bend because a username demands it.
@JoeHert81@kmele@rowjelli You don’t need to send thousands of agents from a paramilitary force into a city to enforce the laws. No one wants to see masked gestapo roaming the streets of their neighborhoods. Public opinion is massively against ice and Trump on this. Look at the polls. It’s controversial.
@Micro2Macr0@BenBurgis@RichLowry So we shouldn’t trust all the polls but we should trust a twitter Anon who says he’s “hearing from a lot” of Canadians who want annexed. That’s what we should base policy preferences on? And even if polls were off by 20% it would still be 55% to 70% opposed.
@specialkdelslay@Zack_Griffs@GovansView@OfTheBraveUSA Forget I said the part about not having ID on them. Even if I accept your arguments, do we want to live in a society where federal agents walk up to us when we are standing by our car pumping gas and ask for our papers? Maybe some do. I and many others do not.
@specialkdelslay@Zack_Griffs@GovansView@OfTheBraveUSA I think the point is if ICE randomly goes up to people with brown skin who are speaking Spanish and ask for papers, many of those people will be US citizens who may not have ID on them. So citizens will end up being harassed.