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🎉My New Infographic: 30-Year History of Stock Market Metrics
Several Observations on the US Market:
The US stock market is 25% overvalued relative to its 30-year median Forward P/E. A couple of years ago, this premium could have been justified by extremely low rates, but now it cannot.
The debt burden is below historical averages as measured by net debt/EBITDA. Unlike the US government, companies are not in a rush to accumulate debt.
The market's dividend yield of 1.4% is noticeably below historical averages, indicating a prevailing excess optimism.
🇨🇴🇮🇱 FLASH - Le président colombien Gustavo Petro est revenu sur les déclarations du ministre israélien de la Défense, qui a ordonné un siège total de Gaza et affirmé qu'#Israël luttait contre des "animaux humains" : "C’est ce que les nazis disaient des juifs. Les peuples démocratiques ne peuvent pas permettre au nazisme de se réinstaller dans la politique internationale. Israéliens et Palestiniens sont des êtres humains relevant du droit international. Ce discours de haine, s’il continue, n’apportera qu’un Holocauste". (X)
@mikeinspace 'Total return" is a high school finance term.
Im not really sure how to make it any more basic....
"6% in year one plus 3% in the first half of year two".... is that up your alley?
Mortgage rates just hit a 20-year high of 7.5% and are well above the 2008 peak of 6.6%
However, the EFFECTIVE rate on all mortgages outstanding is 3.5%, less than half of current rates.
Why sell your house if your mortgage rate will double?
This is the question that 90% of homeowners are now facing.
Supply is unlikely to return to the market anytime soon.
According to Apollo, housing affordability just hit a new all time low.
Houses now are ~30% LESS affordable than they were in 2008, the largest housing bubble in history.
The median monthly house payment is about to pass $3,000 for the first time in history.
All as prices are up 40% since the pandemic and supply is at historic lows.
Buying a home has become a luxury.
JPM's Dimon doesn’t find fixed income attractive despite the rise in rates: “I would not be a buyer of Treasuries at 4.2%, nor would I be a buyer of credit spreads at these spread levels,” Dimon said at the Barclays conf. He wouldn’t be surprised to see 10yr Treasury yields at 5.5% or oil at $120-150. (HT @knowledge_vital)
Did you know that $AMZN has spent more on R&D over the last twelve months than $AAPL, $MSFT, and $INTC *combined*?
The World’s Top 10 R&D Spenders:
Le revenu intérieur brut (RIB) est compatible avec une récession. 👀
En outre, l'écart entre le PIB et le RIB n'a jamais été aussi important depuis plus de 20 ans, la moyenne des deux étant proche de 0 %.
Au moment où tout le monde table sur un soft-landing, c'est intéressant.