Brian

Hungry and Humble

[Brian @brianlammm]

大的银行开始后小的银行通常都会跟着的。有需要开香港银行帐户和了解的兄弟们可以随时联系我

[Brian @brianlammm]

富途这次被罚，看起来很吓人。但市场可能已经从“恐慌”，开始进入“重新定价”。

1. 中国监管层这次针对的是富途、老虎证券、长桥等互联网券商，为中国内地用户提供境外证券交易服务的问题。

这不只是某一家公司出事，而是监管正在收紧一个长期存在的跨境投资灰色地带。

2. 富途披露收到中国证监会的调查通知书及行政处罚事先告知书，拟处罚金额约为 18.5 亿元人民币 / 2.71 亿美元，创始人兼 CEO 李华也可能面临个人罚款。

这个数字放出来，第一反应肯定是：很重。

3. 富途 2025 年全年收入约为 29.4 亿美元，净利润约为 14.5 亿美元。

换句话说，这次拟处罚金额大约相当于富途 2025 年净利润的 19% 左右。

痛，肯定痛。
但不是公司级别的“致命一击”。

4. 市场真正害怕的，其实不是罚款本身。
真正可怕的是不确定性：

会不会还有第二张罚单？
内地相关业务会不会被全面关停？
富途的国际化增长逻辑会不会被打断？

当处罚金额变得可计算之后，市场反而可以开始重新建模。

5. 所以股价反应很有意思。
消息出来后，富途股价一度大跌，但之后也从低位明显反弹。

5 月 22 日，富途开盘约 80.85 美元，盘中低见 73.02 美元，最后收在 89.76 美元。

这说明市场不是完全无脑恐慌，而是在重新评估：

这件事到底是“毁灭性风险”，还是“一次性监管成本”？

6. 富途也已经不再是 100% 依赖中国内地用户的公司。
富途披露，截至 2026 年第一季度，中国内地有资产客户约占总有资产客户的 13%。

也就是说，富途现在的故事，已经不只是中国内地用户，而是香港、新加坡、日本、马来西亚、美国等市场的国际化扩张。

这也是为什么市场没有直接把它当成“业务归零”来定价。

7. 这次事件是一次明确的监管打击，但不是富途的死刑。

市场一开始惩罚的是“不确定性”。
当罚款金额、影响范围、业务占比逐渐清晰之后，投资者就会开始重新定价。

对所有金融科技公司来说，这件事的提醒很直接：

靠监管灰色地带增长，短期数据可以很好看。
但只要监管真的出手，增长故事就会立刻被重新估值。

罚款很痛。
但不确定性更痛。
当不确定性变成一个具体数字，市场才会重新开始计算。

非投资建议，只是我对这次事件的观察。

[Brian @brianlammm]

@FFFenizz852 @PROJ_REdacted @Kindred_AI No you are still young bro

[Brian @brianlammm]

I should just focus trading US stocks only 😩 @LABtrade_

[Brian @brianlammm]

@CryptoSpill 到现在jpex在香港的kol没有一个有事

[Brian @brianlammm]

@lin_yiliu 意思是有资源和渠道

[Brian @brianlammm]

@Wangduanniao @bcgame 是

[Brian @brianlammm]

@hanajin 😂

[Brian @brianlammm]

@Anthonidus lol

[Brian @brianlammm]

Bear market signal

[Brian @brianlammm]

Prediction Markets are so big, they just scared HK into cancelling a HK$90B gambling market 🧵👇

1: Sept 2025 — HK lawmakers voted 77-2 to legalize basketball betting. Nearly unanimous. Seemed like a done deal.

2: Hong Kong Jockey Club went all in. Hired staff. Built software. Spent hundreds of millions. Launch set for late 2026.

3: April 13, 2026 — government pulled the plug. No timeline given for when it returns.

4: Official reason: prediction markets grew to $64B in trading volume in 2025. 3x from the year before. Projected to grow 5x more by 2030.

5: HK's fear: legalizing basketball betting now might draw public attention to prediction market platforms — which are illegal in HK for sports betting.

6: But the original reason FOR legalizing basketball betting? To fight illegal gambling. Illegal basketball bets in HK = HK$70-90B/year.

7: So the logic is: to stop illegal gambling, don't introduce the legal alternative. Because people might find OTHER illegal gambling. 🤔

8: The HKJC was blindsided. So were many lawmakers. One insider said: "The government had been pushing it forward all along."

9: Some lawmakers suspect Beijing pressure is behind the move — part of a broader crackdown on gambling across HK and Macau.

10: The illegal money isn't waiting for regulators to figure it out. It's already moving. Just without any guardrails.

[Brian @brianlammm]

@MrRyanChi @insidersdotbot @SBF_FTX 这个 caroline too hot 😂

[Brian @brianlammm]

Niseko reset ❄️

Reached offer stage with a project.
Aligned on terms.
Dropped the same week for another candidate.

Welcome to early-stage crypto:
Speed > process
Fit > experience

[Brian @brianlammm]

@zhuanfgghjnb @aya_avatar48 @virtuals_io 明天！

[Brian @brianlammm]

@yemjules @trylimitless Hi Julie, sent you a dm. Please check 🙌

[Brian @brianlammm]

@liaoblove520 @aya_avatar48 @fukada0318 体验一下

[Brian @brianlammm]

Consensus Hong Kong 2026 — The Vibe Check

1) Last week wasn’t about noise. It was about signals.
What most people felt at #ConsensusHK:

- Less “wen token” energy
- More real infra conversations
- Stablecoins & yield dominating side talks
- Institutions asking compliance-first questions
- Builders focused on revenue, not just narratives
- AI x Crypto everywhere
- Smaller side events, but higher quality conversations

2) The sentiment? Cautious optimism. The tourists are gone. The operators stayed.

3) 2026 feels like a year of:
- Real products
- Real cash flow
- Real adoption
- Real partnerships
- Not another empty cycle.

4) Looking forward to:
- Stablecoin infra scaling globally
- Institutional DeFi rails
- Asia becoming a serious liquidity hub
- Builders surviving long enough to win

5) If you were there — you felt it. If you weren’t — this year will move fast.

6) Wishing everyone a prosperous and powerful Lunar New Year. Let’s build properly this time. 🧧

[Brian @brianlammm]

@Jackhowdy6 Thanks Jack!

[Brian @brianlammm]

https://t.co/qgwssz0voK

[Quantus | In Private Beta @Quantusfi]

Excited to partner with @FDLabsHQ to support FDUSD as TVL on Quantus.

This integration expands FDUSD’s utility beyond payments into structured, market-neutral on-chain yield — designed with capital protection and institutional clarity in mind.

Looking forward to what’s next 🤝