Brian Velez

Brooklyn boriqua 🇵🇷 research @netizencapital math/econ @columbia former @cowenresearch go @yankees and buy #Bitcoin

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Personal Update:

After shutting down @NetizenCapital and taking a hiatus, I'm excited to relaunch as Netizen Research on Substack!

I combine macro research with on-chain data to provide actionable and concise #Bitcoin insights

Check it out!
https://t.co/enbPyuUlSt

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

@ES_pap1

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

What did the Fed say and why is $BTC at $100K?

Markets are pricing in what the Fed can't admit: they're trapped within their dual mandate.

Our on-chain metrics suggest the rally may just be starting.

https://t.co/EvHUvTPpak

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

$BTC Signal Alert! 🚨

AVIV Momentum just flipped POSITIVE after 3 months in negative territory!

- April 2020 (Post-COVID)
- July 2021 (China Mining Ban)
- Dec 2022 (FTX Collapse)
- Sept 2024 (Pre-Election)

Each time = major price rally.

Will history repeat? 🤔

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

@OleTimeHardball Judge over Jackson ez

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Read my full analysis "Is Bitcoin's Bull Market Back?" on Substack

And please consider subscribing if you find my research helpful! 🙏

https://t.co/VkT8GgIQEb

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Is Bitcoin's Bull Market Back?

Markets continue to whipsaw amid Trump's political theatre, with Bitcoin recently surging 25% from $74.5K to $93.5K.

So...are we back or is it over?

A thread 🧵

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Valuation: Fair But Not Cheap

Current z-score: 0.7 (upper end of fair value)

Not yet in overvalued range (z-score of 1.5+)

Bitcoin's November peak: z-score of ~1.4

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

current market vibes

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

The Decoupling Thesis 🔄

With Powell hawkish despite Trump's pressure, Bitcoin's resilience during capital flight from US assets suggests it's becoming a hedge against reserve currency instability.

Full analysis: https://t.co/FSexN8dpTk

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Is $BTC Finally Decoupling? 🧵

As traditional markets experience turbulence, Bitcoin shows surprising resilience amid capital flight from US assets. Let's examine the evidence...

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Coiled Spring 🌀

1-week volatility compressed to just 13% (vs 50% yearly avg) while markets tumble.

Historically, such low-volatility phases precede explosive moves.

Which way will it break? With that supply wall at $84K, odds favor upside.

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

For full Bitcoin Macro analysis, check out my new Bitcoin Macro note out this morning 👇

The Fed vs Trump and What It Means For Your Portoflio

https://t.co/mekeazbT4c

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

Key #Bitcoin Levels To Watch 👇

75% of supply still in profit - historically separating bull/bear markets

BULL CASE: Reclaim $92.9K (STH cost basis) to validate sustainable rally

BEAR CASE: Break below $80K likely accelerates to $70K due to "air gap" (low volume zone $70-75K)

[Brian Velez @briannvelez]

🚨 Is Bitcoin's rally REAL or just another TRAP?

Current futures positioning shows "Spot Rally" - price rises despite futures deleveraging

For a SUSTAINABLE rally we need:
- More consistent spot demand
- Substantially less leverage
- Clearer institutional accumulation