Some excellent forensic work on $ASTS Falcon 9 launch contracts from the SEC filings. Credit @PiranhaCapital for the dig.
TLDR: At least 10-12 Falcon 9 launches are likely already contracted for 2026, not just the 2 publicly manifested (June/July).
The math: 10 F9 launches × 3 satellites per launch = 30 new satellites + 6 existing = 36 by year-end.
Add one Vulcan or ISRO mission = 40-45.
Friday’s 15% drop assumed ASTS had no backup plan after the New Glenn explosion. The SEC filings show they signed an MLA for 8 additional Falcon 9 launches back in Q4 2025 - six months before New Glenn blew up.
The 45-satellite target was never dependent on New Glenn the way the market panicked it was which is what I said in my posts yesterday!
This is why you read filings instead of headlines!
$ASTS 🛰️
@spacanpanman Apan, you need to host a call stat. Lots of people can't math to the 45 SATs with the launch vehicles we have with BONG MIA for a while. Can we increase our launches with falcon9 or are those launches predetermined already?