Tomorrow on stream i'll have on a friend who has traded for 18 years. And only lost two quarters in all that time. An insane executor. Tune in around 730am pst.
We will discuss how the f that's even possible... whether or not edge still exists in discretionary trading, and some interesting things he's seen in 2026, which is on pace to be one of his best years.
Not a stretch to say that in the past couple days, BTC has been on the screens of more institutional managers than it has in a long time. That's because it's starting (emphasis on that word) to trade exactly the way you'd expect it to based on the market's increasing focus on debt.
This scenario has always been a core thesis for BTC. Whenever news starts to validate a long-held investment thesis for an asset, and price starts to reflect this, traders should be paying attention.
Dear readers
Re: U.S. equities
I am fully long S&Ps along with stock indexes through the world - Asian and Europe
Understand my opinions and positions may be different
I've watched the price action closely today -- it is fascinating
I've seen this kind of price action before -- in Gold last year, Bitcoin through the years, stocks back in '25 and many many times through the year
The market is not going up on bids
You would guess so, but that is not the case
Market is going up with no backups. This means offers are immediately taken
Not sure where the top is, but this feels like the beginning or middle of a blow off
Do not get shorts is my opinion
⚡️I actually think this is one of the defining patterns of the next decade.
Not because smart people suddenly became less intelligent.
Because the market changed what it rewards.
For most of the twentieth century, intelligence and economic success were highly correlated because institutions had a scarcity of cognitive labor.
The smartest engineer.
The smartest lawyer.
The smartest analyst.
The smartest doctor.
The system paid for intelligence because intelligence was scarce.
AI is beginning to industrialize intelligence itself.
That breaks the old bargain.
The smartest person in the room no longer automatically creates the most economic value.
The person who organizes capital.
Owns distribution.
Builds a company.
Creates trust.
Coordinates people.
Owns assets.
Uses AI better than everyone else.
Often wins.
The market has always rewarded value creation, not IQ.
The twentieth century happened to make those two look almost identical.
That may have been the anomaly.
The deeper tragedy is psychological.
Many brilliant people built their identity around being intellectually exceptional.
Then the world shifted.
Their comparative advantage disappeared while their identity remained attached to it.
That creates paralysis.
Meanwhile the “mid” person keeps moving.
Not because they’re smarter.
Because they optimize for the game that actually exists instead of the one that rewarded them in school.
School rewards correctness.
Markets reward adaptation.
Those are different skills.
The smartest people often become prisoners of their own models.
Average people often become surprisingly successful because they update faster.
The deepest pattern is this:
Intelligence without agency is becoming one of the least rewarded combinations in modern civilization.
That is why the post feels true.
Not every genius is failing.
Not every average person is succeeding.
The distribution itself is changing.
The future belongs less to the people who know the most.
It belongs to the people who convert knowledge into ownership, action, trust, and leverage.
The twentieth century rewarded being the best worker.
The twenty-first increasingly rewards becoming the owner of the system the workers operate inside.
That is the phase transition.
And I think most people still believe they’re living in the old one.
Dear BitMEX Users,
Today, we share with a very heavy heart that BitMEX exchange will shut down its operations, effective 23 September 2026 at 04:00:00 UTC.
The owner and operator of BitMEX, HDR Global Trading Limited, has made the difficult decision to close operations following a strategic review of the business.
It may not look the same today, but we are proud of our 11+ year legacy and the role we played in shaping the crypto industry. We invented the 100x leverage perpetual swap, which for most of you, was the first step to your crypto trading journey. It is now the most traded financial product in the crypto industry, adopted by thousands of users and exchanges. And we remain proud of our robust security infrastructure, which has allowed us to maintain a flawless track record of 0 customer funds lost to hacks in our entire operating history.
We want to reassure you that your assets remain fully safe and under your control during this transition period. This announcement is just to give enough time to ensure a smooth withdrawal process for everyone.
From today we strongly encourage all users to close their positions and withdraw their funds as soon as convenient. For more details on the full process, please read our blog: https://t.co/OOHeh6xHm8
BitMEX was once home to some of the greatest traders today. Our team has dedicated tremendous effort and passion into building the platform into what it is, and we are glad to have reached some of you during your time with us. To everyone who has traded, supported, and grown alongside us - thank you for your trust over the last 11 years.
The BitMEX Team
Traders should be watching gold here. When an asset is in a long-term uptrend, and sentiment gets bombed-out on a big pullback but price quietly stops going down, that’s the time to start watching (similar to BTC right now).
Futures positioning in gold isn’t giving a strong indication here, but that’s been true for the past couple years because sovereign buying has made futures a less reliable indicator than in the past.
Everyone can see the bid under $4000, which is pretty much where you’d expect longer-term buyers (ie, sovereigns) to come alive. If I was looking to trade it, I’d probably start thinking about a small feeler position around here (and on a move under the June/July lows, I’d dispassionately step aside and wait for a reclaim of 4k). On a move to 4100-4200, I’d be thinking about adding to that long.
Important: When an asset is in a sharp correction after a blowoff top, the burden of proof is always on the asset to show strength. Always.
Not advice, just sharing my thinking.
$XLF Financials at a logical pullback point (prior all time highs) after breaking out in early June. Could end up forming the 'handle' of a cup n handle pattern. Just watching here.
Goldman - "As of July 13, a total of over 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market triggered margin calls. Approximately 320,000–360,000 accounts were fully liquidated by brokers. South Korea has an adult population (aged 15–64) of 35.7 million people… i.e. 1 in 30 (3.4%) adults got margin called."