@Strategy@JoshMandell6@dampedspring shareholders need answers to real & critical questions asked by impartial minds - we don't need any representation from copycats & sycophants to taint the Q&A
I’m on board with the firm moving in this direction. When the usual approach to funding dividends is just selling more shares of common stock, opting to sell a small amount of Bitcoin instead essentially behaves like a buyback of the common. $MSTR
Based on the last week and parabolic moves of the past 48 hours ill say it now We are now in a bubble specifically a bubble in picks and shovels akin to the bubble in fiber and chips in 2000 or residential real estate in 2007.
Like those periods the bubble in the specifics also dragged all stocks up and the bubble popping drove all stocks down
Unlike George Soros who says when you identify a bubble you jump in long I am not George Soros and think he identifies it way earlier than me. So I am not going to join his protege and buy into the bubble.
I speak from my experience in the 1987 LBO bubble, the Tech bubble, the housing bubble and the bond bubble. I could be wrong but feel it necessary to share my views. I don’t use the term lightly. I have specifically said we are not in a bubble until today.
My options are to fade it or stay out of its way. I have some small risk remaining as my puts have fallen rapidly but I have NO intent of fading this in any more size. Happy to short down 5 or even 10% on the other side of the peak. Lots of opportunity in non equity macro today. But over the past week this has gone into territory I have no edge in capturing. IT will end very very badly but when and from where is unknown. But it will end with SPX below 6000 and NDX below 20,000 and Semiconductors at half of current spot. But that could be a wild and longer path than I can predict.
Power laws show up in all kinds of systems with fat tails, like wealth distribution, city sizes, earthquake magnitudes, or stock market crashes.
Same idea: a small number of events do most of the heavy lifting.
Conclusion: You've gotta be in it to win it.
@dotkrueger@gsantostasi