Broke

Trading without the bullshit.
Probability. Risk. Psychology. Systems.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Straight Bitcoin facts:

After the 2021 top, BTC traded sideways for 699 days with 90.33M BTC traded.

The current sideway run is 304 days old, with only 6.46M BTC traded so far.

Now the questions:

Is real capitulation still ahead?

Maybe the lower volume is the message:

Fewer people are selling. More people are simply holding. (?)

Therefore, we may not need nearly as much buying and selling to see price explode this time.

Something may be different and Bitcoin could take off earlier than expected, catching a lot of people off guard.

Mabe we need more capitulation, just like last time.

I just buy Bitcoin. Simple as that.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

I became profitable when I stopped needing trading to save me.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Never let someone tell you how to make your money, been very profitable executing from my phone. To actually make the setup yeah better from laptop just to get a better view. The rest is rage-bait bs.

[The Honest Trader @TheH0n3stTrader]

First sign of an unprofitable trader:

They trade on their phone.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

I never reduce my exposure to spot Bitcoin.

If I ever need liquidity, the most I would do is take a portion of my BTC and use it as collateral for a loan.

I use the liquidity, repay the loan, and get my Bitcoin back.

That allows me to stay exposed to Bitcoin’s upside while accessing part of its value without selling it.

And since it’s a loan rather than realized income, it’s fundamentally different from selling BTC and realizing a capital gain.

I don’t sell Bitcoin to get liquidity. I want Bitcoin to be the asset that gives me access to liquidity.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

@MaxCrypto We need more bears to be ‘certain’ that market will go down, so sure, bart simpson 👍

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Lets say im betting on 75k Bitcoin. That means i take that number from some TA or fundamental. Like me, there are many people thinking on the same level. Some people take trades around that level, they short, they watch. But because it is a level of interest for a lot of people, there will be a lot of transactions. Those transactions make the volume you usually see on the downside of the charts.

Then? Well, then comes leverage. Leverage on different amounts and multiplication x20, x50, x100. Leverage.

When enough volume gets into the market in all these formats around that level of interest, it creates volatility too. Too many bets on a single spot gets messy, and that is where some movement, up or down, could scare the shit out of some of these actors. But id bet the 100x, 200x got scared first.

But if they make a wave of buying or selling scary enough for the 50x to quit, then the 20x start closing at a loss or getting liquidated.

Then we see all these massive liquidations. Everyone of us has been on one, more than one occasion.

And thats when the market starts cascading. One liquidation triggers another, the move creates more volatility, more volatility triggers more stops and liquidations, and suddenly what started as a level where a lot of people had the same idea becomes a disaster.

Everyone is watching the same level, everyone thinks they understand whats happening, but everyone has different leverage, a different liquidation price and a different tolerance for pain.

So the price doesnt necessarily move because the original idea was wrong. Sometimes it moves because there was simply too much positioning concentrated around the same idea

The market doesnt just move against your thesis. Sometimes it moves against your leverage.

Everyone of us has been on one side of that equation more than once.

This allows you to take some interesting conclusions:

-The market is the market. It cant be manipulated for more than a small moment, even if that small moment can originate tremendous disasters. Its like a butterfly effect.

-Leverage doesnt just multiply your gains or losses. It changes the way the market moves around you. So observe the leverage involved in the market, not just your own.

-The more people that are positioned around the same level, the more fragile that level becomes. What looks like confirmation can actually be a concentration of risk waiting to explode.
So always watch volume.

-And sometimes the biggest move is not caused by new information entering the market, but by people being forced to exit positions they were never supposed to be able to hold for long.

Try to not be that person.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

@Kalshi Man’s just doing his bussines 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Broke @brokeinvst]

@niphcc @nobrainflip Price being higher doesn’t make the structure any less similar. It’s about structure and reaction around the same relative levels.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

The line I drew yesterday is playing out almost to a T.

At this point I can’t tell if I’m getting very good at reading Bitcoin after all these years, or if the setup was just obvious.

I never short Bitcoin anyway. I’ll let it fall and watch how it behaves at the lower boundary of the flag. That’s where the real confirmation comes.

The biggest change, though: I no longer take trades impulsively.

And that has taken me into the most profitable phase of my life.

Besides pure bitcoin:native HODL.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

AI. Bitcoin. Automation. Incorporated.
On repeat. Every day.
The odds keep compounding.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

$BTC- 4H

If this is a typical bull flag and continuation I’d expect something like this to happen in the next 24-48h. I’d expect some kind of confirmation like significative volume on key areas like the downside part of the flag or support confirmation on the 20 daily ema to take a long trade.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Them reaching out to you vs. You reaching out to them is a whole different game in sales.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

$BTC- 4H

If this is a typical bull flag and continuation I’d expect something like this to happen in the next 24-48h. I’d expect some kind of confirmation like significative volume on key areas like the downside part of the flag or support confirmation on the 20 daily ema to take a long trade.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Them reaching out to you vs. You reaching out to them is a whole different game in sales.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

AI. Bitcoin. Automation. Incorporated.
On repeat. Every day.
The odds keep compounding.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

@TheH0n3stTrader Bait i guess?

[Broke @brokeinvst]

@jtrader They don’ run out of liquidity to trade, ever

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Know where you are in the game.

There comes a point when
your daily trading results matter far less than what you do with the money you’ve already made.

Income builds capital. Long-term allocation builds wealth.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Straight Bitcoin facts:

After the 2021 top, BTC traded sideways for 699 days with 90.33M BTC traded.

The current sideway run is 304 days old, with only 6.46M BTC traded so far.

Now the questions:

Is real capitulation still ahead?

Maybe the lower volume is the message:

Fewer people are selling. More people are simply holding. (?)

Therefore, we may not need nearly as much buying and selling to see price explode this time.

Something may be different and Bitcoin could take off earlier than expected, catching a lot of people off guard.

Mabe we need more capitulation, just like last time.

I just buy Bitcoin. Simple as that.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

One more thing:

The current $78K area may be playing a similar role to $31K in the previous cycle.

$31K was the old range floor. Once it broke, Bitcoin entered its final capitulation leg. When price eventually reclaimed it, the real expansion began.

Now BTC is testing $78K from below.

A clean reclaim and hold could mean takeoff. A rejection could send us back into more chop or toward the capitulation still missing.

This reaction matters.

Bottom line: we’re at a crucial level right now.

[Broke @brokeinvst]

Straight Bitcoin facts:

After the 2021 top, BTC traded sideways for 699 days with 90.33M BTC traded.

The current sideway run is 304 days old, with only 6.46M BTC traded so far.

Now the questions:

Is real capitulation still ahead?

Maybe the lower volume is the message:

Fewer people are selling. More people are simply holding. (?)

Therefore, we may not need nearly as much buying and selling to see price explode this time.

Something may be different and Bitcoin could take off earlier than expected, catching a lot of people off guard.

Mabe we need more capitulation, just like last time.

I just buy Bitcoin. Simple as that.