Since the Iran war began:
1. US has lifted sanctions on Russian oil for the first time since the Ukraine war began
2. Oil futures posted their largest weekly gain in history, rising +34.5%
3. The S&P 500 has erased -$2 trillion in market cap in 10 trading days
4. Iran is considering allowing oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz to resume if done with Chinese Yuan
5. The world has seen the largest disruption to global energy markets in history
6. US strategic oil reserves are set to hit their lowest since the 1980s
It has only been 2 weeks.
THE MARKET LEARNED NOTHING π¨
Oil dropped because Trump said it's "almost over"
Today? 3 MORE SHIPS HIT in the Strait of Hormuz. One is ON FIRE. A Thai bulk carrier crew had to evacuate.
Iran is now shipping its OWN oil to China through the strait... 11.7 MILLION barrels since the war started. Chinese ships get through. Everyone else gets shot at.
So the IEA just announced the LARGEST emergency reserve release in history
400 MILLION barrels from 32 countries
And oil STILL went UP. Brent $91. WTI $87.
Read that again. They dumped the biggest supply bazooka they have and it didn't even work.
The US military just said they CANNOT GUARANTEE safe passage through Hormuz. Ports could become military targets.
Iran is laying MINES. Jamming GPS. Ships are "going dark" on tracking systems.
Normal Hormuz traffic: 100 ships/day
Current traffic: ~7 ships/day (Iran, Russia, and China only)
The strait isn't "almost reopened" It's getting MORE dangerous.
400M barrels sounds like a lot until you realize the world uses 100M barrels PER DAY. That's 4 days of cushion.
Oil is going higher. The only question is how much higher. UNLESS SOMETHING ACTUALLY changes