In 2 years, Bitcoin's average floor price (kind of where we are now in Mar '26, but in the future), will be about double what it is now
~$70k today
~$137k in 2028
Trust the process
Still wondering why we're stuck in a crabcrawl? Still second guessing your decision to HODL Bitcoin? Still concerned the 4-year cycles are broken?
You don't need to look any further than THIS.
Halvings don't create Bitcoin bubbles, the business cycle does. And they don't follow strict 4-year cycles.
Your patience is about to be greatly rewarded; can't keep this beach ball submerged for much longer.
Extreme Fear showing on Bitcoin fear and greed, but that does not mean it's time to rush and buy.
This shows a change in trend, from bullish to bearish.
There was a large-scale bearish divergence in August 2025, which has also appeared at every other cycle top.
The reason I think a lot of the traditional cycle top metrics (like the Pi Cycle Top, etc.) missed this cycle is because of two reasons:
1. Overly optimistic projections
2. Heavy bearish divergence
Heavy intuition was required, similar to the last cycle, but even more so this time.
No matter where you look, the next step for Bitcoin seems to be between 170 and 180k.
Using a 5.618 extension from the earliest move of the cycle has given us almost pinpoint accuracy for previous cycle tops.
This time, the golden number is $184,181.
All the boring price action is coming to a squeeze; it can't stay that way forever!
@sminston_with Great chart as always. Would love to see the x-axis up to date and see how it will progress in the upcoming weeks and months in a regular basis if possible? As you know, I`m a big fan of your charts 😉
You missed selling the top for the third time in a row but you are confident you'll time the bottom after missing it for a third time in a row. Success is not about perfection it's about execution at high emotional times, max euphoria and max fear.
@sminston_with Happy to see you posted this update. Much appreciated. A few days ago I was just on the edge to DM you how you are doing and wanted to ask about an update, but as we all now patience is a virtue and booom, you posted an update now. Thanks.
Druckenmiller: “I lost $600m shorting internet stocks in ‘99… they all went bankrupt later.”
Being right doesn’t mean you make money.
Timing is everything. Shorting is hell.