i was having dinner with someone recently who asked why i spend so much time reading & posting on x. she had a pretty negative perception of the platform mostly shaped by the mainstream narrative around it.
my answer was simple. x is where the future gets beta tested.
you basically get to watch ppl build things, talk through ideas, show off stuff, & argue about where everything is going, way way before it reaches anyone else.
there really isn’t another surface on the internet quite like it.
BlackRock says AI agents will use stablecoins and AI compute will be tokenized.
They’re telling you the next crypto narrative before it starts.
What are you buying?
FIXING A HOLE: Bitcoin ETFs' YTD flows are now positive after a $4.6b tsunami of cash came in over the past month ever since Bessent said it would increase bond buying which reminded everyone that the train has no brake pedal, only gas. Chart, story via @sidcoins
I'm hosting a dinner next month in Boston for scientists and engineers interested in safely increasing human intelligence.
I'm interested in both treating cognitive impairment and helping healthy people improve their cognitive abilities. Could we develop treatments that help people learn faster, reason better, and solve harder problems? I'm especially interested in approaches that could work in adults.
There's a lot we don't know, including what's possible and what would be safe. I'd like to bring together people across neuroscience, genetics, drug development, and computational biology/ML to discuss promising research and what it would take to turn it into useful treatments.
I'm also interested in backing the right founding team if one comes together.
If you're working in this area or have relevant expertise, please apply at the link below.
Happy to cover travel if needed. Or if you can't make it to Boston, let us know - I may host one virtually for those who can't attend in person.
Silver adjusted for money supply.
What a great chart that tells the silver story incredibly well.
A breakout with authority earlier this year, followed by a move from euphoria back to neglect as silver corrected toward former resistance, which has now become major support.
The long-term thesis for silver not only remains intact, it is stronger than ever.
https://t.co/IBrBFOMMhz
pumpfun currently has:
- the lowest post-bonding platform fees out of any relevant launchpad
- 0% fee social trading app (with 0.1% fees for crosschain trades)
- callout rewards ($11M paid out in under 6 weeks)
- holder rewards ($8.5M paid out in under 2 weeks)
- referrals (new)
as we enter our second cycle, our goal is to position the pumpfun ecosystem for success at a scale much larger than the first cycle.
to accomplish this, we need to make sure token communities can thrive by incentivizing holding for longer, retail traders get the most competitive fees, and liquidity is optimized - all of which we're laser-focused on delivering.
Sent from my Pumpfun App
At least this cycle I don't have to spend the whole time calling for ETH to go home, considering it's already there.
Still think a DCA approach throughout the 2nd half of the midterm year is what generally works well.
If there is a shock later in Q4 then can deal with that at the time.
This is my Everything Code framework in a single chart...
Theres no growing out of debt at these levels, so governments have no choice but to print to pay the interest and borrow more on top.
On the face of it, we're all fucked.
But I find myself oddly optimistic. For decades we've been piling on debt and hoping a productivity miracle shows up, and for the first time it's not a far off impossibility with the dawn of the Exponential Age.
The Everything Code explains why we're stuck, how demographics and debt leave debasement as the only option and why that ends up driving almost every asset price. My Exponential Age framework is where we find our way out...
I've been building both for years now, and for the first time I've put them together in one place... my first book, The Everything Code.
China’s loan growth is collapsing:
China’s loans grew +4.9% YoY in August, its weakest reading in data going back to the 1990s.
This comes as bank lending fell to just ~$9 billion, materially below the ~$60 billion expected.
Furthermore, aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, increased just +$247 billion, well below the +$314 billion expected.
Loan growth has trended lower for years and peaked at 34.2% YoY, following the 2008 Financial Crisis.
Weak borrowing from households and businesses is driving the slowdown, with household mid- and long-term loans shrinking for the 5th month this year.
At the same time, comparable corporate loans fell to more than 50% below their 2023 levels.
China’s economy is struggling.
Investing is about simplifying things to reduce your decisions down to very few...
I developed the GMI Compounding Machine for RV Pro to do just that.
You can adjust how many standard deviations over bought you want to buy and how many standard deviations oversold you want to sell (and you can put in your exact amounts).
What it tells you is how to compound your returns: buy weakness, sell strength but sell less than you buy. It's as simple as that. I know nobody wants to hear it. Everyone wants to trade but really it's not that complicated. All you need to do is decide how cheap or how expensive you want to buy or sell. The rest is just holding and going to the beach.
One of the biggest reasons why no one wants to have kids these days is because our generation is much more stressed and anxious about the future compared to previous generations.
The reason for that is because the amount of disposable income and savings (NOT in meaningless NOMINAL but in *REAL purchasing power* terms) that people in the bottom 97% have keeps dwindling every single year.
The reason for that is because they are printing money, lending money, borrowing money, and expanding the money supply at a faster and faster rate each year.
Even if you are making $300,000+ per year, you can still feel this ACUTELY; as in most cases prices are growing faster than the rate of your savings growth in real terms.
Even if you ignore hoeflation, hypergamy, and the sinister effects of smartphones and social media, and focus on normal, reasonable, grounded people - people that don’t come from top 5% families (those that own lots of stocks and real estate which can keep up with money printing) feel psychologically “unworthy” and financially unprepared for parenthood as it is taking longer and longer to achieve basic milestones.
Money does not define one’s worth, but food, rent, childcare, education, healthcare are real expenses that require money.
The overly debt-ridden and inflationary Fiat Late Capitalist system is becoming so extreme that its major byproduct is sacrificing real human births and real human happiness for the sake of letting the system live another day and enriching the asset-owning class.
All of the trends described above will intensify even more as both AI capabilities and money-printing speeds accelerate. This road only goes one way.
As automation inevitably accelerates, we will witness a greater "Crisis of Worthlessness".
Having children will go from being a standard human experience to being an ultra-luxury good. The trend will be towards only the ultra-wealthy in the 1st world and the ultra-poor in the 3rd world being able to have kids, with the upper-middle, middle and working classes of the "developed" world being disproportionately affected.
Your life has been made harder for the sake of their profits and keeping the existing system afloat to live another day.
We have been in a multi-decade Happiness Recession no matter what "GDP" numbers say, and that's what truly matters.
An animal stops procreating when it feels it is in a prison.
The System is Broken.
Charts unrelated.
Look, I know...perma-bear blah blah blah.
But this is crazy stuff.
There are 2 days in history like today, when the S&P 500 $SPY rallied at least 1% to within 1% of a new high, and more of its stocks fell to new lows than highs.
• Jul 23, 1929
• Dec 21, 1999
A perspective:
- LONG pioneered stock pairs, and we did it on Robinhood Chain. The first ones to take RWAs seriously and the biggest retail finance brand in the world.
-We built network effects from 0. No official amplification, no partnerships, no major exchange listings(testament for PMF + extremely fair and organic approach)
- We are leading on stock pairs. $1.5b+ in RWA volume, millions in TVL. We are writing the playbook.
- LONG stock pairs are the most liquid pairs + leading on mcaps across the space(and actually have correlation with the stock instead of thin LP)
- LONG stock pairs are the most held assets (for example check fomo)
- LONG is the first platform that optimizes for PVE and price sustainability, with holders who can actually hold and a team that can iterate on making it better.
- Produced the highest number of runners in recent times? (and they are still running)
- The highest ratio in history of total volume to number of launches.
- AI has had more 70% dips than I can count. It survived everything and grew out of it(literally broke ATH just a few days ago)
- We had MEME becoming the center of the tokenization debate.
- We had BONER be the first one to engage with a public company CEO.
- We have cracked builders and OG communities that slow cook assets like MOO SCHIFFY SPACEHOOD (and many more!)
- We have an app that real humans actually use, with 100k weekly active users.
Mark my words, rotation between metas, chains, and assets will not impact LONG users once we hit a few milestones(that's our goal since day 1 not being just another launcher who compete on the same pie)
We will build our own distribution. We will not stay still and wait for the "real" bull market or the next leg up. We will bring it ourselves with SHEER willpower and it's gonna be beautiful for our early adopters.
Trust the process and never stop believing.
LONG.
For those of you who thought I was hiding during today’s big Bitcoin rally, I was observing the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur. Now I’m off to break the fast, but I’ll have plenty to post about the rally tomorrow, assuming it holds up.