Sal Bokhari @brownsoundsal - Twitter Profile

about 1 month ago

Seen several quote #PlayStation's 78% digital full game sales, thus omitting important context. That figure includes countless digital only releases, from back catalogue to indie games etc. Even Capcom revealed 84% of its sales were "older catalog titles", many of which are only available digitally. So using such data is somewhat misleading. To gauge REAL physical demand you need to look at splits of games that released both physical AND digital only. Thanks to the Insomniac leaks, we have such data on PS first party games. Playstation Physical / Digital splits Sackboy - 77% / 23% R&C Rift Apart - 76% / 24% Ghost of Tsushima DC - 71% / 29% Demon's Souls - 70% / 30% Miles Morales - 66% / 34% Spider-Man - 66% / 34% Returnal - 61% / 39% The Last of Us 2 - 61% / 39% Ghost of Tsushima - 51% / 49% MLB The Show 21 - 39% / 61% So per Sony's own internal data, 31/33 first party games from their chart sold more PHYSICAL than they did digital. Uncharted 4 actually has an insane 83% physical split. Granted it only covers through to a few months into 2022, but we can see from other more recent data, things haven't drastically changed. For example GSD data shows ~60% of Astro Bot sales across Europe were physical. So what skews revenue and data more digital, beyond digital only releases and platforms? The answer is games with LIVE SERVICE components, especially multiplatform ones. As you can see from Sony's internal data, MLB has the highest digital split, and it's a live service game. Generally the highly popular live service or annualised games such as Call of Duty, NBA 2K, FIFA etc, have higher digital splits, as gamers are constantly launching them (often daily) and don't want to be constantly switching discs, thus skewing digital/physical splits. It's very different to single player games which are shorter and have different play and consumer trends. So again, context matters. Then there's a MASSIVE audience of gamers that aren't even accounted for in any of this data; the countless consumers that buy and sell used physical games, because they simply can't afford as many new games, but still buy/own consoles, accessories, games, services etc. Everything from poor parents, kids etc. Ultimately, the data rejects the notion physical is dead or meaningless, even if digital accounts for the overall lionshare of revenue/sales, especially when you look at things with the proper context and/or focus on single player tentpole games, which is PlayStation's bread and butter. Keep in mind platforms make a 15% licensing fee from third parties on physical games, while they get a 30% cut on digital. Likewise first party lose a 30% cut to retailers on physical, while they keep all of the revenue on digital. As I said before, this move to kill physical is more about PlayStation trying to make far more profit and squeeze away the last remnants of consumer ownership, control, flexibility and resale, and could have greater negative market ramifications.

nib95_'s tweet photo. Seen several quote #PlayStation's 78% digital full game sales, thus omitting important context.

That figure includes countless digital only releases, from back catalogue to indie games etc. Even Capcom revealed 84% of its sales were "older catalog titles", many of which are only available digitally.

So using such data is somewhat misleading.

To gauge REAL physical demand you need to look at splits of games that released both physical AND digital only. Thanks to the Insomniac leaks, we have such data on PS first party games.

Playstation Physical / Digital splits

Sackboy - 77% / 23%
R&C Rift Apart - 76% / 24%
Ghost of Tsushima DC - 71% / 29%
Demon's Souls - 70% / 30%
Miles Morales - 66% / 34%
Spider-Man - 66% / 34%
Returnal - 61% / 39%
The Last of Us 2 - 61% / 39%
Ghost of Tsushima - 51% / 49%
MLB The Show 21 - 39% / 61%

So per Sony's own internal data, 31/33 first party games from their chart sold more PHYSICAL than they did digital.

Uncharted 4 actually has an insane 83% physical split.

Granted it only covers through to a few months into 2022, but we can see from other more recent data, things haven't drastically changed. For example GSD data shows ~60% of Astro Bot sales across Europe were physical.

So what skews revenue and data more digital, beyond digital only releases and platforms? The answer is games with LIVE SERVICE components, especially multiplatform ones.

As you can see from Sony's internal data, MLB has the highest digital split, and it's a live service game.

Generally the highly popular live service or annualised games such as Call of Duty, NBA 2K, FIFA etc, have higher digital splits, as gamers are constantly launching them (often daily) and don't want to be constantly switching discs, thus skewing digital/physical splits.

It's very different to single player games which are shorter and have different play and consumer trends. So again, context matters.

Then there's a MASSIVE audience of gamers that aren't even accounted for in any of this data; the countless consumers that buy and sell used physical games, because they simply can't afford as many new games, but still buy/own consoles, accessories, games, services etc. Everything from poor parents, kids etc.

Ultimately, the data rejects the notion physical is dead or meaningless, even if digital accounts for the overall lionshare of revenue/sales, especially when you look at things with the proper context and/or focus on single player tentpole games, which is PlayStation's bread and butter.

Keep in mind platforms make a 15% licensing fee from third parties on physical games, while they get a 30% cut on digital.

Likewise first party lose a 30% cut to retailers on physical, while they keep all of the revenue on digital.

As I said before, this move to kill physical is more about PlayStation trying to make far more profit and squeeze away the last remnants of consumer ownership, control, flexibility and resale, and could have greater negative market ramifications.

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Sal Bokhari

@brownsoundsal

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