Bryan Willis

Political leanings all over the shop. Nationalist, Alt-Left, Communitarian or old school Social Democrat.
Take your pick.

Hobby: yelling at clouds.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

The Minister responsible for presiding over Australia’s two greatest criminal dumpster fires. NDIS and the Anti-tobacco campaign. How many heads (besides his own) should roll at the incompetent Federal Health Department & ministerial advisor level?
None I suspect because he’s part of Albanese’s inner sanctum.

[Hexis Capital Management @HexisCapital]

“Combustion - not nicotine - drives tobacco-related disease.”

A notable new Nature Health commentary from former senior WHO figures calls for smoke-free alternatives to play a larger role in reducing smoking prevalence globally.

#THR #HealthPolicy

https://t.co/svTWMocGCX

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@Ausbobsmit Albanese term of office will become known within Labor circles as
‘The squandered years’.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@TonySheldonNSW One for every 200,000 Australians.
Let’s hope they don’t all get sick at the same time.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@dailytelegraph @ianamossyd Where is Federal Health Minister Butler whose policies brought all this about?
And pays none of the enforcement expenses.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@ianamossyd Where’s Federal Health Minister Butler?
In hiding?
It’s his policies.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@CitizensPartyAU AUKUS is a continuing payment plan to acknowledge our vassal status. We will pay regardless of whether the subs eventuate or not. That’s the deal.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@MrRexPatrick It depends on whether there is a nearby golf course.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@DavidPocock @cheryl_kernot Albanese won’t do anything until the polls tell him he has to.

[David Milner @DaveMilbo]

Here's @RonniSalt. "The NACC: The high price you pay for corruption"

https://t.co/7O2BoI7ZnG

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@c_s_wallace …ministers who are now experienced and better at their jobs.
How does this work in relation to Health Minister Butler whose policies have contributed to or even directly created the 2 largest crime scenes in the country; illegal tobacco and NDIS fraud and over-servicing?

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@JohnRowsthorne @JeffLormans The Australian politicians who have most torn up our independence;
Hawke, Gillard, Albanese,
were all from what passes as its Left Wing.
Almost as if they felt they need occasionally to obsequiously demonstrate their fealty to Empire.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@LNPvoterfail How many specialised hospitals could be built each year to treat critical NDIS patients (out of the money currently wasted treated them elsewhere)?

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@Crocodylus121 Add one declaration to student visa application.
I intend to return to my home country when my visa expires and have no reason to apply for asylum in Australia.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@TomPlayford3 @AllenbasterAxel Migrants with adult children and here for several years are in the same boat as everyone else
Where can my child rent to build a family?

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@Handre And Thailand?

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Thailand has one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in the world. In 2025, the TFR was 0.87, and the preliminary numbers for the first months of 2026 are even lower. The rate is so low that deaths have exceeded births since 2021 and now run 34% higher than births.

Thailand’s fertility collapse has always fascinated me. With a flight to a Bank of Thailand conference in Bangkok ahead of me, I spent some time reviewing the data.

Thailand’s TFR fell below replacement in 1991. That is early. It means completed fertility has been below replacement for at least a full generation. In 1991, Thailand was neither rich nor well-educated. Even today, its income per capita (in PPP, the right measure here) is about Mexico’s level, around 28% of the U.S.

The standard theories for East Asian ultra-low fertility, such as a toxic educational arms race or extreme gender inequality, have little bite here. On the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Index 2025, Thailand scored 0.728 and ranked 66th. South Korea scored 0.687 (101st of 146), and Japan 0.666 (118th of 148, last in the G7).

I think Thailand is the clearest example of modernity without high income, and that combination is a recipe for demographic collapse.

To illustrate this point: if Thailand’s TFR remained at its current level for 200 years, the population would decline from 65.8 million in 2025 to 1.51 million in 2225. While this is a hypothetical scenario used to make the argument, not a forecast, it gives a sense of the magnitude of the population change involved unless TFR increases at some point. This is not about closing a few maternity wards or fixing Social Security, but about winding down an entire country.

Does anyone have a better theory? I don’t have enough information on Thai demographics, and I am happy to update my view.

Two caveats. First, I use Thailand’s official data from the National Statistical Office. The UN WPP data (and the databases built on it, such as the World Bank’s) are, as always, way off. Second, the official statistics may undercount births somewhat. Even if they do, the picture changes little.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

It’s a package deal. The Government & Defence establishment want US forces based here because we’re too frightened to be on our own. Also closer ties to the US military & arms industry opens up lots of job opportunities post retirement.
The price is 2nd hand subs, vassalage payments & targeting opportunities for any future enemies. Plus the options foregone that you mention.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@VoteLewko After a while you begin to get the strong impression these wars are only done to create future refugee source material for Western countries in need of growth by any means.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@AlboMP That’s 1 clinic for every 204,000 people in this country.
Or you could just raise the Medicare bulk billing rates for the rest of us.

[Bryan Willis @bryanfwillis]

@EmergencyBK @Diana5662996273 Albo, Marles & Wong -the AUKUS decision makers won’t be around by then.
If they’re embarrassed at the time they’ll be comforted by their indexed superannuation and foreign military-industrial contracts.