BTB Analytics

Using probabilistic models to predict outcomes.
24-25' - 13.7% ROI in NFL, 4.27% ROI in CFB
25-26' - 10.7% ROI in NFL, 8.2% ROI in CFB

[parker fleming @statsowar]

2026 is the year we kill time of possession once and for all

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@AndrewBrandt And this is partly why bad owners stay bad

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@SleeperNFL @BleacherReport @SleeperGiants @SleeperWSH @JayDanielsMVP @SleeperSaints @SleeperTitanUp @SleeperRaiders @RiseUpReader @SleeperBrowns @SleeperJets @SleeperMiami Using our simulated win projections:

32 - Dolphins
31 - NY Jets
30 - Titans
29 - Browns
28 - Giants
27 - Cardinals
T26 - Panthers, Saints
24 - Raiders
23 - Falcons

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@AdamSchefter Will there ever be a “buying at the top” of an NFL team?

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@ThroneSpud For the LSU tailgaters: we'll be there for the 11/14 game vs Texas and need the best recommendations for gameday and tailgating.

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@BrettKollmann Cardinals too but with Beck

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@SleeperNFL @newheightshow @MySportsUpdate Diggs had 102 targets last year. Brown had 121. Not so sure the diva attitude disappears

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@Brett_McMurphy Nuff talk, let’s play the games already

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Shit that squares say pretending to be sharp

[Dan Patrick Show @dpshow]

"I don't think analytics drive our decisions, I think they support our decisions. Really, it's a starting point on a lot of things. You have to go off the tape... and you have to have a great feel for your team."

– #Seahawks HC Mike Macdonald on analytics in the NFL

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@ProFootballTalk @ZachGelb Prediction market insiders strike again

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Working on a rollout..

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

NFL futures simulations have been run 👀

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@JoshPateCFB Be still my beating heart

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@On3 Can’t wait for discourse to stop and games to begin.

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@BudElliott3 Will be at the Texas v LSU game, hoping this holds!

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

why can't the internet cyberbully the NCAA and CFP committee into submission like this?

[College Football 27 @EASPORTSCollege]

An update from the College Football 27 Team. #CFBGoPlay

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Lock

[Merriam-Webster @MerriamWebster]

What is the most overused word in your line of work?

Let it out.

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@vsininsights How reliable is it to use that 10% threshold you cite? I’m sure it’s directionally correct but there must be instances where the observed difference has nothing to do with sharp action, no?

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

Looking through NFL schedules again ahead of training camps and wanted to bring back this nugget:
The whole 'fade west coast teams traveling east in the 1pm slot' is nonsense. If someone bets a team (or touts this) based solely on this narrative/trend, they lose in the long run.
West coast teams in this spot are 69-53 ATS since 2016. This "angle" may have existed prior to this, but it's long been baked into the line.

[BTB Analytics @btbanalytics1]

@DoctorRazzWSOP Perhaps the rest of the thread addresses the gap? Or do you still see a flaw after that?