for newer people out there - I recommend tracking when relative weakness is going to occur in $XLE, $XOP, and $DXY
upside EURUSD pair movement will be bullish for stocks as well due to their positive correlation
a new trend begins with new leaders - need more sectors like Space
in my view, positioning is neutral/defensive, and currently call buying (especially short-term) acts as hedging vs possible sudden peace headlines
$COMPQ & $NASI remains negative, and losing 200MA on indices usually leads to a consolidation/chop environment
do not rush action
for risk takers - mark the levels of today's bonds/yields and overnight lows of individual stocks
this is your key level to long against and/or get stopped out afterwards
for the measured ones who act only after confirmations - wait until indices close above daily 200SMA and weekly 50EMA, and <both> sides confirm negotiations
for the rest of us - I wouldn't trust any of the price action until it is a prolonged, and at least a small, trend
do take into consideration that what frightens market most often is not the enhanced price of the asset, but rather the rate of change (speed) during a short period, and we saw lots of that across various inflationary names
damage has been done and it will take time to heal (or bend even lower), not rushing to make a decision and spin your bias it the correct play here, let everyone get torched both ways, you will have plenty of time to play
understand this
few thoughts re: markets...
- software. as mentioned in a few replies in the last week, I began to nibble so names, but being very selective, albeit most of them move as a group. negativity and bearishness on the sector will not vaporize overnight, and all of us collectively buying the group will not mark the lows. I would anticipate bounces here and there that are excellent scalp opportunities while being open-minded and picking some well-respected names for the next year (dollar-cost-averaging)
when you see people post historical valuation lows for favorite companies... those are still too high. me thinks multiples will continue to de-compress, and if we do not receive analysts doing downside revisions that market is already <pricing-in> the outlook will shift into the latter part or next year. these AI giants you see names of everyday continue to spend a lot on core software and hire engineers, and 3P SW is here to stay for a while longer
believe 27' is where select SW names are going to come back pretty violently. additionally - given that most of these well known names are flying back to Earth... I'd encourage to navigate not through only the likes of $TEAM, $WDAY, and $NOW, but also smaller players... $WIX, $BRZE, $GLTB, and a few others... M&A plays. they are far cheaper (and some of them generate decent cash-flow) than before, and some... were buyout targets whilst prices were twice higher. just something to ponder about
- metals. quite a few readings and insights about monthly RSI being over 90s (gold). while I do love divergences and fluctuations with this indicator, it's only good to grasp momentum, not local tops or lows. if you check back gold in 1970s, you selling when it hit >90RSI would've meant you missed a decade-end 5X additional ride higher. while I am inclined to believe this is starting to feel <too-late-to-enter-now> sort of a thing for quite a few of these metals, and we may see <more-often> and bigger pullbacks this year, some of them north of 20-30%, do think a similar scenario happens where all of them trade way higher by decade-end. as most masterminds on X, I will be pretending to be a copper, lithium, coal expert and diverge from the likes of gold/silver soon
- dollar. disgusting - pretty much the only thing keeping us in check for now is that decade line of defense chart everyone is sharing. I do something different... log it against other currencies on HTF charts. in the months and years to come, I am trying to re-allocate my EUR/USD to something that is breaking out when compared to them... in this instance, Swiss Franc. not only hard assets, not only RE, not only stocks, I'm trying to avoid getting torched any longer on EUR and USD
- push and pull OR vibe-trading. being very selective with the names I own. all of them must fit the narrative or seem like <they are going to be discovered> soon. do believe putting stops is wrong in this market. this month alone I chose not to put stop losses (I am inherently a swinger/not an investor) and feel the pain for a while just before markets reverse and erase losses + I am hedging way, way more often, for example used to be SW shorts, now pivoting to XLE and proxy names longs (usually 7-14 day momentum plays)
- a lot of sectors and big names right now... grind (especially MAGS). still see we can drift slowly higher from here before eventually meeting that <everyone waits for> dip in 1H, but I wouldn't be shocked if we end the year still considerably higher than where we are now. at this point administration doesn't even hide they are trying to pull economy=stock market waltz, and without our beloved stocks, it's a collapse. I doubt they want one - but I am no longer using margin just in case. this is no SPY at 400-500
- cryptocurrencies. avoiding - I think a small re-spike to near 100s was easily predicted but too much money has been wiped out clean a few months ago with that vile rug and before that - alternative coin washout and liquidity transfers before getting rugged as well with disgusting presidential coins. there is no appetite or reason to sit in a declining sector while everything else is ripping (until now). at least wait for a real-secure confirmation
- dino names and multi-year bases. I'm mostly interested in decade long breakouts or preparations to do so. if you see charts similar to $CLS before it broke out... auto-long it with lunch money. it's M&A and deca-breakout season in the works
- you're all going to make it... this market isn't difficult. it's just a weird one. the less time you spend on screen and socials reading/monitoring every situation the better it is. pick up several short term composite indicators (momentum overstimulation and short-term washouts/lows), follow industry experts sharing their daily thoughts for free on the matter... and you're good to go
long and probably useless read but had some free time, TL;DR furu: nibbling SW names but on a push-pull aspect, only several DCA for 27. main metals will drift higher but I do feel excellent pullbacks are coming, whilst end decade goes way higher. dino names and multi-year breakout pending assets interest me most, less stop losses, more hedging and vibe-trading, be prepared to be wrong often as long as you re-adjust quick
the market is broadening day after day - $RSP and $SPY are looking slightly healthier than $QQQ as money continues rotating into a variety of sectors
while I believe this year could get more hectic in terms of index action, I'm far more focused on thematic plays and individual names, constantly monitoring their outperformance vs. ETFs
I built a new swing portfolio in the first days of January, emphasizing bigger diversification but loaded with bullish catalysts
my ongoing rules remain the same:
- no chasing missed entries
- take profit rather than waste profit
- zero tolerance for positions lingering in red
- balanced sizing so fresh wounds don't cause major bleeding
- more aggressive use of options this year on high-conviction names
here are some of the sectors and names I'm currently swinging/owning:
technology which contains $DOCN, $PSTG, $U, $CRNC, $YOU, $NVTS, $SKYT, $ACMR, $INTC
consumer services which contains $AMZN, $ROKU, $JMIA
aerospace and defence which contains $RDW, $KTOS, $AVIO, $KRMN, $DPRO, $FLY, $VOYG, $KRKNF
energy and basic materials which contains $EOSE, $TDW, $SMR, $AMR, $REMX, $FCX
and a few random names like $FIGR, $JKS
unlike last year, I'm holding a hefty cash position due to the uncertainty and potential volatility ahead - staying less aggressive overall, but a bit safer
and if you want to become the greatest - search and purchase names that are breaking out of 5, 10, 15 year bases. Your guide is $CLS scenario
selective furu
hello, back into the fray
January effect taking place - investors sell losing positions in December for tax-harvesting & buy some back the next month using bonuses/cash to re-dress portfolio
<fresh-start> psychology - EOM closures will display favourites of the year
know this
one thing that baffles me a lot is how horrible and bifurcating some of these accounts become once you're in a clear down-trend/retracement
no capital protection/bias swap whatsoever once bridge starts collapsing and spamming daily AI-points fails
be selective whom you follow
have a gut feeling big broad market participation is yet to be seen
$MAGS looks extremely coiled and ready to go
weird speculative flow on many tickers I have not seen in ages
quantum does not look bearish to me yet even though everyone wants to short
leaders act healthy after retesting overbought levels and cooling off
$AVGO, $INTC, $META, $TSLA and even $AMZN (end of times I know) are setting up
rotation is the halmark of the market, hence either we continue ripping until the big names get extended and good news with deals do not pop the price anymore, or see money flowing into new darlings
not a fan of $DXY action with $KRE, but then again, you will always find something to get bitter about, and again a reminder individual names > indices
still long furu
the premise of this account is to serve my trading & investing insights with a side of sarcasm, keeping it stupid simple
stock market should be easy to crunch as overcomplication is often the death of a trade
could dive deeper into many topics but there rarely is a need to
I'm closely watching $DOCN as AI/ML scaler play for '26 - excellent recent analyst coverage
monthly chart looks strong - IPO AVWAP at 44.66, 50EMA at 40.69, with solid volume flux
beyond biotech, thermal, metallurgical assets, and commodities, select tech names will be re-rated
preem formula for reversals
- first higher low
- reclaim key moving averages
- flag flat/consolidate under local-wick high for a few days (3-5)
- initial volume spike followed by a cooler afterwards
- explosion
reversal to the upside furu
hands down, the best day in 2025 for me, sponsored by $AMD - however, the waltz isn't over
took profits into strength and opened speculative positions in $PATH, $XYZ, $ONDS, $BMNR, $RXRX
exhaustion here and there, but retail-heavy narratives continue to find their way
three cult-following stocks I'm monitoring for potential explosive upside moves if they hit my triggers:
$PATH - 24' highs AVWAP sitting around 13.6
$SNOW - closures above 240/250 monthly IPO stage 1 box
$RIVN - anything that holds and sustains a move above 15/16
retail furu
buy first - analyze later
the most undervalued advice that should be followed way more often as by the time you figure out why the setup may work or not - the trade is often long gone
best returns usually come from following your gut paired with the right environment
know this
stock market themes I'm monitoring the most:
drones - massive quarterly volumes
solar - headwinds priced in, $TAN bottoming pattern
cybersecurity - $IGV individual components buzzing
reshoring - various biz. have chatter on moving/supporting operations back to USA
theme furu
the choose rich package (also known as - best names to spark up longs should markets cooperate)
$TSLA $CRSP $ZS $SKYT $CLF $LPTH $BB $MNMD $DDOG $NXT $FLNC $DPRO
no charts, just listing names to save your time - these have nice bases/coiling with supportive derivatives action
the best way to harvest experience in the stock market is by dedicating a few hours every single day to your screen, but if you have some free time, here are a few books that helped me get started:
- Japanese candlestick charting techniques
- Stan Weinstein's secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets
- Reminiscences of a stock operator
- Momentum masters
- Option volatility and pricing strategies
I know most of you cannot read, but these old books pack some decent knowledge