Every crypto bull run started with these 2 signals.
- ISM Manufacturing above 55
- Russell 2000 breaking out
When both happened in 2016, crypto had its first bull run.
The same setup appeared again in 2020, sending the market from $400 billion to over $2.5 trillion.
In 2025, it never happened as ISM stayed below 50.
Now it's back.
- ISM just hit 55.6
- Russell 2000 just reached an ATH
If history repeats, we're a few months away from a major bull run.
BILLIONAIRE JACK DORSEY JUST DROPPED ALL NEXT DAY SHIPPING COSTS ON HIS SECURE #BITCOIN WALLET BITKEY
ONE OF THE WORLD'S RICHEST MEN IS DOING EVERYTHING HE CAN DO TO SUPPORT BTC
OTHERS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING
HE IS USING ALL HIS RESOURCES TO HELP REAL BTC USERS RECOVER FROM ONE OF THE WORST HACKS ON RECORD
WHAT AN ABSOLUTE LEGEND 🔥
INSANE CRASH IN USD/JPY AND THE DOLLAR INDEX
USD/JPY dropped from 158.48 to 156.65 in a single 15-minute candle, over 180 pips.
The DXY fell from 99.90 to 99.40 in the exact same candle.
The dollar is being sold everywhere.
The US jobs report just came in negative, with the economy losing 23,000 jobs against expectations of a 85,000 gain.
That killed the case for a Fed rate hike.
Lower US rate expectations mean lower returns on holding dollars, so traders sell them.
And when the dollar falls, it falls against every currency, which is why the DXY dropped just as hard.
This is exactly what Japan needed. It spent $160 billion this year trying to push USD/JPY down and it kept coming back.
A weaker dollar does the same job for free.
Bitcoin has found the middle ground and is building the foundation.
Network Growth has risen steadily since mid-July alongside Bitcoin’s consolidation.
Participation is rebuilding without either a Breakdown or Breakout forcing it.
Participation Expansion during consolidation strengthens the mid-term outlook, preparing the foundation for a potential cycle bottom.
BREAKING: Hackers launched a wave of sophisticated attacks on Wall Street firms in recent days, targeting information systems at major money managers and hedge funds, per Bloomberg.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US government fines OpenAI $3,200,000 for discriminating against American workers during hiring and favoring foreign temporary visa holders.
The Yen carry trade is dying.
Before April 2025, the USD/JPY currency pair showed a close correlation with the 10Y rate differential between US and Japanese bonds.
This was driven by investors borrowing in Yen to fund higher-yielding US Dollar assets through the carry trade.
That relationship broke down after "Liberation Day," when trade war uncertainty triggered a surge in market volatility and forced investors to unwind some of their carry trade positions.
Meanwhile, the 10Y Treasury note yield is now trading ~2.0 percentage points above the Japanese 10Y Government Bond Yield, falling -1.0 percentage point since April 2025, near the lowest gap since 2021.
Yet, USD/JPY continued to move higher as the US Dollar strengthened against the Yen, despite the narrowing yield gap, breaking away from the interest rate differential that historically drove the pair.
In other words, the carry trade is losing its influence, with the Yen no longer driven primarily by rate differentials as investors increasingly price in Japan’s heavy debt burden and rising debt servicing costs.
Japan’s rising debt costs are becoming impossible to ignore.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US Senators call for SEC investigation into President Trump's crypto memecoin, accusing him of a "rug pull."
$TRUMP coin is down 95% since launch.
Last night Apple briefly removed Telegram from the AppStore because a user had planted illegal porn in a public chat.
Telegram was restored within hours. But I want to explain what happened — to warn other app developers and help protect online communities from similar attacks.
Because Telegram quickly removes illegal content from public groups using all kinds of moderation tools, the attacker had to resort to a technical trick. He inserted AI-modified illegal content by editing an old message in an active group chat. As a result the content was effectively hidden from the group’s members, preventing them from seeing/reporting it.
The attacker was a takedown extortionist: someone who demands ransom from group owners in exchange for not targeting their communities. These extortionists use automated accounts to plant illegal content in public groups and then report it directly to Apple, attempting to trigger the removal of legitimate communities whose owners refused to pay them.
From a practical standpoint, illegal pornographic content in Telegram’s public groups is not a systemic problem. Our moderation is effective. The fact that attackers must resort to backdated, effectively invisible content and other technical tricks proves this.
⚠️ However, there are two important lessons here for app developers and online communities:
— Extortionists have found a way to manipulate Apple into overreacting. Apple removed Telegram from the App Store before contacting us. This creates a potential systemic risk for every mobile app that hosts user-generated content. If an app used by more than a billion people can be removed from the App Store without prior warning, any app can be.
— The tactics used by takedown extortionists are evolving, putting communities across social platforms at risk. Telegram has extensive experience identifying the tricks used by coordinated reporting gangs and protecting legitimate communities (even when doing so risks our own app being temporarily removed from the App Store). Other platforms may not be equally prepared.
Stay vigilant! ☝️
🚨 BREAKING: Californians can now delete their personal information from hundreds of data broker websites with a single request, under a first-of-its-kind state privacy program.
The new system is designed to make it significantly easier for residents to stop companies from buying, selling, and sharing their personal data.
THIS IS INSANE.
Japan has reportedly spent around $160 billion this year trying to stop the yen from falling.
- $73 billion in April and May, a record monthly total at the time.
- $53 billion last Thursday, likely the largest single day in its history.
- $34 billion last Friday.
Every time, the yen strengthens for a few days and then goes right back.
Japan cannot fix this by spending reserves. It can only fix it by raising rates agressively.