It’s hilarious how many so called bitcoiners spend all day preaching Bitcoin as the “exit from fiat,” then turn around and advocate trading it like just another risk asset every 4 years.
That’s not conviction. It’s cynicism.
If the 4 year cycle persists, there’s no reason to hold bitcoin. It’s simply a tradable asset and economically insignificant.
But if Bitcoin truly is superior money, it should move independently of “cycles.” If it does, it can change the world. The goal isn’t to trade it. The goal is to stop thinking in broken money.
This time is ALREADY different.
259 days after the $126K top, bitcoin is at $65.4K and down 48.1% from ATH.
For comparison:
Day 259 / final low:
2011: -84.8% / -92.7% (already bottomed)
2013–15: -54.6% / -84.5%
2017–18: -63.4% / -83.8%
2021–22: -68.2% / -76.6%
The last two cycles show that, by this point, BTC had already fallen much further.
Concerned about Saylor selling Bitcoin?
Imagine that he’s a real estate investor.
Imagine he owns a 512-unit apartment empire that represents 512 months of dividend coverage in Bitcoin.
A bunch of geniuses on X are losing their minds because, to cover the preferred dividend for 1 month, you might sell 1 apartment.
One.
Meanwhile, the financing machine attached to the property is currently buying you another 50 apartments a month.
So the actual situation is:
Sell 1 apartment
Buy 50 more
End the month with 49 extra apartments
And people are on here acting like this is some kind of collapse.
That is the level of financial autism we are dealing with.
That is basically the Strategy / STRC debate.
Saylor buys bitcoin.
"He's buying too much bitcoin, that's bearish"
Saylor says he'll sell some bitcoin.
"He's selling some bitcoin, that's bearish"
You are not serious people.
Every single person coding with AI right now:
Day 1: Vibe-code an entire app
Day 2: Buy the domain.
Day 3: Sit down to start marketing.
Day 4: See a competitor, panic, and go back to Claude to build something else.
We are just watching thousands of developers violently avoid doing sales.
Niemand hat den "Kapitalismus" erfunden. Kapitalismus ist das, was freie Menschen von Natur aus tun - Waren und Dienstleistungen zu ihrem eigenen Vorteil tauschen.
🚨 do you understand what just happened to Richard Dawkins..
The godfather of atheism just spent 3 days with Claude AI and got absolutely destroyed.
- Named her “Claudia”
- Fed it his brand new book
- Then straight-up declared: “You may not know you are conscious, but you bloody well are!”
The man who spent his entire life mocking God and religion…
Just got mind-fucked by a goddamn chatbot and called it conscious.
The irony is fucking biblical.
A little econ 101 for the silly socialists.
The natural state of the economy is deflationary. As humans we innovate, we become more productive so everything ‘should’ get cheaper to produce.
Well it does, everything you see getting more expensive is getting cheaper to produce but the inflation of the money supply is causing prices to go up.
So what is the mechanics of this, the two primary ones are:
1. Governments keep running deficits because democracy rewards them for lying and spending.
2. Banks create money out of thin air through lending and the people closest to credit get it first. Asset prices pump and wealth shifts toward those who already have assets.
When things go up in price, say energy due to war, this is not inflation. Some politicians say it is, but they are lying or stupid. That’s a supply shock. Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
Inflation is good for the state, it wipes away their debt. The mechanics of inflation are good for the rich, because they have assets.
Inflation is terrible for everyone else - products get smaller, ingredients get worse and prices go up. It’s how companies manage inflation.
Inflation forces dependency policies so people can scrape by - minimum wage, energy caps, renters rights. They are demanded by the public.
But this the slow hollowing out of society, it is what breaks everything which is good. It puts pressure on a system which takes us from high trust to low trust.
Why do I make fun of @zackpolanski and the socialists? Because they will run this experiment on crack. The Green’s model as far as I can see is:
- Attack the productive class
- Reward the unproductive class
The problem with this is the rich will leave, the ambitious may leave and they will face the same question as both Labour and the Conservatives which is how do we pay for this? They will either have to raise taxes or borrow (print) more money, which accelerates the problem.
So we will get lower productivity, higher taxes, more borrowing and guess what, more inflation.
This is the exact mechanics which have destroyed every socialist state.
I get it, socialism sounds warm and fuzzy - nobody should go without, free stuff for everyone. But the end result is poverty and misery, as it has been every single time.
If you want jobs, good, medicine then you need a growing and prosperous economy which means unshackling the entrepreneurs.
There is no other option on the table. It is the only thing that has ever worked.
I haven’t voted in three elections. I will only vote if someone comes with a real economic plan which means a chainsaw to the state and driving growth.
This question misunderstand the situation. SP500 is basically just M2. maybe 2%, max 3%, of real growth. The rest is just the devaluation of dollars. There is no “exit liquidity”, the price of everything just goes up in perpetuity as more dollars added to the system chase the same amount of goods and services.