Brian Graham

Real Estate Investor since 2018. 24 units and counting.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

My wife and I both have 1 each. And I must say, everything he said is true.

[Jason Oppenheim @OppenheimJason]

A public service announcement.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

@EndWokeness Wish I could’ve bet this on Kalshi back then

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Treasury close Oct 2: 2y 4.83%, 10y 5.28%, 30y 5.63%.

Seller notes often price off Treasuries plus a credit/illiquidity spread, not last week's survey mortgage average. Model the balloon and exit-rate risk. A cheap note still fails if refinance stays expensive.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

New HUD Fair Market Rents took effect Oct 1 for Baltimore-Columbia-Towson: 2BR $2,006 (from $1,857), 3BR $2,509 (from $2,358).

PHAs set voucher payment standards at 90-110% of FMR. Underwrite to your PHA's updated standard and inspection timing, not the listing rent.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

https://t.co/x89Qweu7PA September: 1,161,615 active listings (+5.4% YoY). Gap to pre-pandemic inventory now 9.1%, first time under 10% this recovery. Homes under contract -4.1% YoY. Median DOM 61.

More stock, cooler demand. Underwrite longer lease-up and negotiate. Don't price like 2021.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Everyone with a sub 4% interest rate

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Census: August housing starts 1.275M (-2.6% MoM). Single-family starts 918k (+7.6% MoM). 5+ unit starts 344k. Completions 1.128M (-27.1% YoY).

SF is restarting. Completions still lag. Before you buy a duplex or 4-plex, check local starts and permits, not just today's vacancy.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Manufacturing still expanding, but input prices surge

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 54.5, the 9th month of expansion. New Orders 55.3. Employment 52.7. Prices Paid jumped to 77.9 (+6.8 pts).

Expansion with cost pressure. Operators: protect margins before chasing volume.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Freddie Mac's weekly rate jumps a quarter-point in one week

Freddie Mac PMMS (Oct 1): 30-year fixed averaged 7.28%, up from 7.03% last week. 15-year at 6.60%.

A quarter-point in seven days. Stress every purchase and refinance at today's quote, not last month's.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Job openings cool from the summer peak, so underwrite rent and turnover

BLS JOLTS (Aug): U.S. job openings little changed at 7.1 million. July revised to 7.3 million. Openings rate 4.3%. Quits held at 3.1 million.

Labor demand cooled off the summer peak. Underwrite rent growth and turnover for a softer job market, not 2021 forever.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Mortgage applications stall as the 30-year rate hits a multi-year high

MBA: mortgage apps fell 6% in the week ending Sep 25. Purchase apps -4%. Survey 30-year hit 7.30%, highest since Nov 2023.

Maryland buyers pause when the payment jumps. Sellers: price to today's rate, not last spring's comps.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

ADP shows September hiring rebounding

ADP: private payrolls +90,000 in September (Aug revised to +36k). Mid-Atlantic +47k. Manufacturing +17k, construction +15k, financial activities -16k. Demand still has a labor floor. Protect margins where wage pressure sticks.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Sep 30 Treasury close and a 52-week high on the 30-year mortgage

Treasury Sep 30 close: 2y 4.88%, 10y 5.29%, 30y 5.64%. Mortgage News Daily top-tier 30y hit 7.60%, a 52-week high. Payment math, not last year's comps, sets the underwrite.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Commercial mortgage delinquencies rise and multifamily distress jumps

KBRA: private-label CMBS delinquency rose to 7.7% in September (+9 bps). Multifamily distress +40 bps as large loans slipped back delinquent. Underwrite refinance and exit stress. Rent comps alone are not the deal.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Ahhhh. I love rent deposit day

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Price cuts hit a record September share, with Baltimore and DC close to the national pace

Redfin: 21.1% of U.S. active listings saw a price cut in the 4 weeks ending Sep 20, the highest September share in its records (19.8% a year ago). Baltimore 22%, Washington DC 19.8%. Sellers who price to today get the showing.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

@ESPNUK Fired

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Consumer confidence plunge, so protect margins

Conference Board Sep confidence: 81.9, down 6.7 from Aug and the lowest since Apr 2014. Expectations Index 63.6, a third monthly drop. Home-purchase plans eased. Soft demand doesn't reward sloppy pricing. Protect margins before chasing volume.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

Okay so here’s the thing.

-Cristiano brought Portugal trophies they never had.
-He’s the world’s all time leading goal scorer at the club level
-he’s the world all time leading scorer at the international level
-Portugal’s all time leading goal scorer.
-he’s 41 years old with a BMI that is of most 28 year old pro athletes look like In their prime. He has looked like that his whole career.
-he’s still scoring about 35 goals per season.
-he is the utmost professional with his approach to the game
-transformed the game to new heights, along with Messi and their rivalry pushing one another to new levels.
-the best players in the world right now aren’t even close to messi and Ronaldo’s average seasons

-Messi gets to do what he wants when he wants with Argentina.
-LeBron does what he wants with Team USA and the NBA
-Modric does what he wants with Croatia
-Tom Brady plays for who he wants in the NFL
-Ovechkin decides when he retires in the NHL.

But we are the ones to tell Ronaldo when to retire? Makes NO SENSE

Ronaldo gets out casted and flexed on by his own. Shit talked by media. Why? Makes no sense. He has given us NOTHING but his very best efforts at all time. Then the thank you is “get out you’re too old” ? How about your Portuguese teammates step up and play the way Argentina’s team has for Messi. People say Goncalo Ramos is his replacement? No, Ronaldo is irreplaceable. And you all just ran away one of the best things that has happened to sports.

@Cristiano I am sorry. Idk what comes next but, Thank you for all the memories.

[Brian Graham @btgraham5]

@JeebsTX And the cash price? $1,500 LOL