$SPX hit 7300 and bounced — positive charm is keeping a bid under this market until 6/30.
So what actually matters heading into 6/30?
A. Spot holds above 7200/7300 through today and 6/30
B. Spot drifts down to pin those levels by 6/30
C. Doesn't matter — after 6/30, the concentrated negative dealer interest tied to near-term expiries rolls off significantly
I'm going with C.
The structural weight comes from how that interest is stacked around current expiries. Once they clear, the hedging drag fades — and that's the real reset. Where spot finishes today is noise.
Intermediate term analysis of $SPX $SPY $QQQ
If this helps, or you want to understand my interpretation/thought process I can post a video.
Like, comment with any questions, and share. Thank you.
What truly helps reading GEX/Gamma.
Magnitude/Concentration + further expirations.
The 7400 level is crucial for the next few expirations up to 6/30/26. We broke 7400 and stopped around 7425/7430. Why?
Look at size of positive gamma relative to negative. Demand for upside past 7400 was not present. Now compare that to <7350. Billions of negative notional GEX.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
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