Congrats to the $BFIT team for a successful Q4 and exciting 2026 outlook. We believe members per club are back to 2019 levels, putting the business on very sound financial footing while still trading at a very low multiple. We think they are set up well to beat and raise in 2026 which should lead the stock to continue to rerate
$LQDA reported their results yesterday that far exceeded our own expectations.
To appreciate the scope of this launch so far, we believe the case study of $VRNA is illuminating.
Both $VRNA and $LQDA treat pulmonary conditions (COPD/PH), have similar undiluted share counts (85mm/87mm), and CEOs who came from $UTHR (Zaccardelli/Jeffs). VRNA launched in the summer of 2024 while LQDA launched this past summer and at launch both stock were trading in the low teens.
The $VRNA story has already unfolded. They had a terrific launch that exceeded expectations and the company would be acquired for $10 billion (~$107 a share) the following year after 3 full quarters of commercialization.
We are now one full quarter into the commercial story of $LQDA, and they are having a better launch to date than $VRNA.
$VRNA did $36.6mm in its first full quarter while $LQDA did over $52mm. $VRNA did $72.8mm in its second full quarter while $LQDA should substantially exceed that given current Rx numbers.
$VRNA still generated losses until their 3rd full quarter of launch. $LQDA is profitable in its first full quarter of launch ($LQDA has much lower overhead with a smaller sales force).
Where the two stories differ so far at least is in the stock price. $VRNA was north of $40 a share after reporting its first full quarter of commercialization and exceeded $70 stock after reporting its second full quarter of commercialization.
Despite posting higher revenue and better margins, $LQDA with roughly same share count as $VRNA is priced at $25 a share.
Obviously, what gives here is the '327 concern. But with this kind of growth, $LQDA's PAH numbers are exceeding what the street had envisioned they would do in PAH and ILD combined.
The other issue that we believe is equally as important is where we are in the calendar year.
All funds are sensitive to how they perform in the short term, but that sensitivity is heightened as we get to year end. All binary risks that can create a potential negative impact are avoided. Why step in front of a potentially negative mark to market even if the long term picture is positive?
But there in lies the long term opportunity.
We believe that $LQDA is proving that it has the best in class product for this market and has better launch data so far than $VRNA. We saw how that story ended with a $10 billion take out and +$100 take out price.
We think long term $ROOT should trade at a similar multiple to $PGR given they will achieve similar margins, and this would lead to a doubling in the share price from here
Congrats to the team at $DNTL CN! While we would have hoped for a better price, we think selling was the right thing for the company and appreciate all the hard work!
https://t.co/6S8yZh9Auz
While the market clearly was not happy with this $BFIT release, we think there were a lot of significant positives. Our numbers for 2026 and thesis in our writeup were essentially confirmed in this release.
The post-COVID narrative is stale.
3 cohorts in France were impacted by lockdowns, red tape & unrest.
That’s now in the rearview.
New clubs are tracking back to plan.
It’s time for a new narrative.
Full breakdown →
$BFIT
Market is missing the story on Basic-Fit $BFIT. Trading at just 5.3x our 2026 EBITDA, we see >2.5x upside with a path to €65/share. A classic compounder hiding in plain sight.
Full write-up:
https://t.co/8xmZ8Yu7jn
What if investors start to believe again?
🟢 Beat & raise cycle starting
🟢 Re-rating toward 10x EBITDA or 15x FCF
🟢 €65 target = 100%+ IRR in 18 months
Time to revisit the long-term story.