BUFFLONE capital

Private Investor 📊 | Focus: AI, Chips, Long-Term Plays | Research-Driven | UK-Based 🇬🇧 | Building Brick by Brick | #Investing

[Dan Nystedt @dnystedt]

TSMC 2nd quarter (Q2) conference on Thursday (7/16), media report expectations:
Q2 revenue NT$1.27 trillion (already known, US$ not known)
-Net profit seen up 59% to NT$632.6 billion (US$19.6B), 10th straight quarter of growth
-Gross margin could exceed 68%
-Operating margin seen hitting new high
-R&D expense seen hitting record high due to advanced process investments

Q3 revenue forecast seen +9%-12% vs Q2 in USD terms (some 15% estimates)

Full Year
-Raise full year revenue to mid-30s% increase from current ‘above 30%’ growth, most bullish scenario sees 40%
-Unlikely to raise 2026 capex (some see $58B-$60B) but could discuss plan for next 3-years
5-year CAGR forecast 2024-2029:
-AI semiconductor revenue CAGR for 2024–2029 seen raised to 70%-80% from mid-to-high 50% now

TSMC Official Q2 Guidance
-Revenue US$39.0B to $40.2B
-Gross Margin: 65.5% to 67.5%
-Operating Margin: 56.5% to 58.5%
-Exchange rate forecast NT$31.7 per US dollar.

What investors want to know:
-Overall AI demand health
-CoWoS packaging capacity expansion
-N2/N3 ramp and pricing
-Is memory shortage hurting demand for logic chips?
-Update on global construction projects
-Update on advanced processes and packaging (CoPoS, SoIC, etc) R&D
-TSMC view on intensified competition from Intel, Samsung
-Will TSMC raise prices again in 2027? (5%-10% increase expected)
-Gross margin projections for 2026 and 2027
-Capex strategy for next 3-years
-Semiconductor industry outlook

Links:
https://t.co/jRoAHHj7IB

https://t.co/tUdnIEcJ0n

https://t.co/8bA7qCjV4q

https://t.co/HOIoQDCtl7

https://t.co/0GTALbLkiM

https://t.co/WOgHeoAhVA

https://t.co/htUJGlFjSR

https://t.co/ZPOmnZMCRf

https://t.co/bJozxXJDKE

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

i see

[Goldman Sachs @GoldmanSachs]

On July 9, SK hynix successfully priced its $26.5B US debut offering. Goldman Sachs served as global coordinator.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

$AAPL management is really funny!

[Wall St Engine @wallstengine]

Apple is reportedly hunting for AI chip acquisitions to boost its server-chip efforts, per The Information.

$AAPL has talked with bankers and approached semiconductor startups as its current M2 Ultra-based AI servers struggle with more advanced workloads.

The company is relying on Nvidia chips inside Google Cloud for heavier tasks, including parts of the revamped Siri.

A future Apple AI server chip, code-named Baltra, was expected this year but has reportedly been delayed.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

Is the market taking the piss!? From $480 to $420!? 🥵🤬
$TSM $NVDA $AMD

[Valuetainment @valuetainment]

NEW: Nvidia controls 74% of the global AI chip market, which is approximately $200 billion in annual revenue.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

😆😅😅

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

$SPCX falls below its IPO price. 📉

[The Earnings Correspondent @earnings_guy]

$ASML (ASML) #earnings are out:

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

😆😅😅😅

[SemiVision 🇹🇼 👁️👁️ @semivision_tw]

The AI semiconductor boom is no longer simply a contest to buy more GPUs. It is becoming a competition for access to advanced logic, HBM, packaging, interconnect, thermal engineering, power delivery—and, above all, manufacturing certainty.
TSMC’s June 2026 revenue matters for more than one reason.

At the most immediate level, it is an exceptionally strong data point ahead of the company’s second-quarter earnings call. TSMC reported consolidated revenue of NT$442.68 billion for June, up 6.2% from May and 67.9% from a year earlier. Revenue for the first six months of 2026 reached NT$2.404 trillion, an increase of 35.6% year over year.

https://t.co/XPoNywYPAz

[Nikkei Asia @NikkeiAsia]

Taiwan's No. 2 chipmaker UMC starts photonic chip production in Singapore

Optical tech combined with chip packaging seen as next-generation growth driver
https://t.co/cXJ7zS6zn8

[CNBC @CNBC]

Taiwan’s second-largest contract chipmaker, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), announced Tuesday its first mass-produced silicon photonics wafers manufactured within its Singapore facility.

It comes as analysts at Citi said they see an improving outlook for the chipmaker in the second half of the year, forecasting a 13% quarter-on-quarter sales jump in the second quarter of 2026 and a gross margin recovery.

Read more on CNBC: https://t.co/fjuA6WaPwj

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

$UMC

[CNBC @CNBC]

Taiwan’s second-largest contract chipmaker, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC), announced Tuesday its first mass-produced silicon photonics wafers manufactured within its Singapore facility.

It comes as analysts at Citi said they see an improving outlook for the chipmaker in the second half of the year, forecasting a 13% quarter-on-quarter sales jump in the second quarter of 2026 and a gross margin recovery.

Read more on CNBC: https://t.co/fjuA6WaPwj

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

😂😂

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son dismissed AI bubble fears, comparing skeptics to early critics of cars and airplanes. He estimates it will take nearly $5 trillion in global investments annually to build out the necessary data centers, chips, and energy infrastructure for AI.

Get the latest news on all things AI: https://t.co/4rsB4w5i8x

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

Blatantly

[TipRanks @TipRanks]

🔽Apple $AAPL downgraded to Underweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc

KeyBanc downgraded Apple to Underweight from Sector Weight with a $250 price target.

The firm expects iPhone builds to slow amid price increases, "weak" U.S. upgrades, and changing device subsidy models.

In addition, 2027 expectations for the Apple's Mac, iPad, and Wearables division likely need to move lower, the analyst tells investors in a research note. KeyBanc sees the company's unit growth slowing, along with the growth in Apple's user base, which it believes will likely pressure its Services sales.

Apple shares are "too expensive for this to occur," contends the firm.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

oh oh

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

$LCID plummets on reports it is weighing going private or Chapter 11.

[Reuters @Reuters]

Tower Semiconductor to invest $3 billion in Japan, backed by government grants https://t.co/gvFccxpnaj https://t.co/gvFccxpnaj

[TipRanks @TipRanks]

KeyBanc raised price targets across several AI semiconductor leaders after its Asia supply chain checks reinforced a strong demand outlook.

AMD $AMD: PT raised to $725 from $530 – Overweight
Arm $ARM: PT raised to $430 from $300 – Overweight
Marvell $MRVL: PT raised to $400 from $385 – Overweight
Micron $MU: PT raised to $1,750 from $1,600 – Overweight
NVIDIA $NVDA: PT raised to $330 from $310 – Overweight

KeyBanc cited sustained AI data center demand, persistent memory shortages, tighter supply, and stronger DRAM/NAND pricing as key drivers for the sector.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

Bro!

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Buybacks aren't just "returning capital" — they are an active investment decision, Jamie Dimon said on JPMorgan's Q2 earnings call Tuesday.

Dimon also added that companies need to stop hiding behind M&A and, instead, focus on organic growth. https://t.co/03wdsuscM7

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

Yall play too much!

[CTO ROBOTICS Media @ctorobotics]

Two humanoid robots named Robert and Matilda took part in what organizers called Russia's first humanoid robot wedding in Moscow.

The event was not a real legal marriage. It was a symbolic ceremony created to showcase advances in Russian robotics and explore how robots may interact with people in the future.

The ceremony included wedding rings, vows, music, dancing, and guests, making it look like a traditional wedding.

Organizers said the event was meant to demonstrate how humanoid robots can communicate, move naturally, and take part in social activities.

Humanoid robots are already being developed for healthcare, manufacturing, customer service, education, and research. Events like this highlight how quickly robotics technology is advancing and how robots may become more useful in everyday life.

[Space and Technology @spaceandtech_]

Austin-based robotics startup Apptronik has unveiled Apollo 2, the latest version of its humanoid robot.

Apollo 2 comes in both bipedal and wheeled versions and performs real-world tasks while collecting training data.

Apptronik is using this data with Google DeepMind to train Gemini Robotics AI models, making Apollo smarter and more capable.

[BUFFLONE capital @bufflone]

$GOOG

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$GOOGL is expanding TPU access across the AI neocloud market through outreach to providers like Nscale and partnerships with Blackstone and Fluidstack.

The move adds another growth channel for Google’s custom silicon as demand for accelerated computing continues to expand.