Build a Thesis

Now working on and Previously building Trying to figure out this social media marketing thing

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

https://t.co/jXs6moEgfu

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

“It’s harder to drive best practices for larger acquisitions” on Altera

$CSU.TO call

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

slow maintenance growth, have to see if this is attributed to AI and how management addresses it during the call. otherwise management seems to find many good deals, acq deployment is accelerating, revenue growth and cash generation ought to improve in the coming periods.

$CSU.TO

[Michael Gielkens @MichaelGielkens]

And here are the headlines
$CSU.TO

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

At 3:49pm, “finish the investment deck” and “take gf out for dinner” can both feel urgent.

https://t.co/qbWmPAQkN6 picks a place to start, gives you a reason, and lets you argue with it.

Try it; it's free. https://t.co/fBWWVNSnqA

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

@rja907 Haven't tried it; how does it compare against Fable/Sol?

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

@leopoldasch Congrats Leopold!

[AIP @Anomaly_Invest]

Nick Sleep's 2002 observation: many professional investors, told with total certainty that a share would rise tenfold within a year, would still refuse to buy it if the price stayed flat for the current quarter.
Not because they doubted the outcome. Because they wouldn't survive the quarter professionally. The constraint was never information. It was career risk.

[Vitaliy Katsenelson @vitaliyk]

The profitability of AI is elusive. Companies that went all in on AI are struggling with the bill, and many are starting to ration their usage. Meanwhile, open-source and Chinese models are delivering results comparable to frontier models at a fraction of the cost. Good enough is a powerful argument when it costs a tiny fraction of the alternative.

So it starts to look like a race to the bottom, as trillions of dollars worth of data centers compete for the same customers. At some point, the prices the big guys charge will have to decline to meet the alternatives. This is exactly what happened in fiber optics after 1999. The same thing will happen in the sexier but still highly capital-intensive business of AI.

Skeptics always sound smarter than optimists. If I had to choose, I would rather be an optimist. They are the ones who end up changing the world. As an investor, I do not have to choose either extreme, because there is a third option available to me: being a realist.

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

Not great for $GOOG $GOOGL that so many of their best scientists have decided in recent days to leave for their own pursuits / join rival firms.

Esp at a time when their current models aren’t performing.

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

I also want to give a huge thanks to the incomparable @JeffDean after an incredible 27-year run at Google. He’s off to start his own public benefit corporation with @Sanjay_Ghemawat focused on accelerating discoveries across ML, science, & engineering. @Google will support as a founding investor and Cloud partner. On a personal note, it’s been a privilege to work with Jeff and Sanjay, and I wish them all the best. Thank you for everything!

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

Clouds are clearing. I'm starting to see stars again ⋆✴︎˚｡⋆

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

On $CSU.TO's acquisition runway:

AI makes software easy to build, which will trigger a flood of new niche SaaS.

Problems that used to be too small or niche to justify building for? AI changes that, and these are perfect for $CSU.TO.

The best of them will still solve mission-critical problems and build sticky, high-retention customer bases.

High switching costs for this type of software remain true forever. It’s basic human psychology. It’s just not worth the trouble to switch.

Do you really still think Constellation will run out of targets?

If anything, AI expands their pipeline. They need a larger deal volume as they scale, and an explosion of niche, sticky SaaS provides exactly that… even before counting internal margin gains.

How big of the SaaS market do they currently occupy? How much bigger will SaaS get? Food for thought

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

@HiddenGemsInves Long runway of great reinvestment opportunities to sustain high ROICs for many more years

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

On $CSU.TO's acquisition runway:

AI makes software easy to build, which will trigger a flood of new niche SaaS.

Problems that used to be too small or niche to justify building for? AI changes that, and these are perfect for $CSU.TO.

The best of them will still solve mission-critical problems and build sticky, high-retention customer bases.

High switching costs for this type of software remain true forever. It’s basic human psychology. It’s just not worth the trouble to switch.

Do you really still think Constellation will run out of targets?

If anything, AI expands their pipeline. They need a larger deal volume as they scale, and an explosion of niche, sticky SaaS provides exactly that… even before counting internal margin gains.

How big of the SaaS market do they currently occupy? How much bigger will SaaS get? Food for thought

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

@ReneSellmann Reddit is imo the go-to site when you want authentic sounding community recommendations.. it's topic-first groups (aka subreddits) allow people with similar interest to connect and share helpful tips which is a great source of data for LLMs especially in doing market research.

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

It has never been easier to feel like an investor without doing much I wrote a simple primer on the basics we often neglect: how multiples work, how stocks become multi-baggers, how professionals estimate value, and why hurdle rates matter. https://t.co/TaO3449ZCb

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

It has never been easier to feel like an investor without doing much I wrote a simple primer on the basics we often neglect: how multiples work, how stocks become multi-baggers, how professionals estimate value, and why hurdle rates matter. https://t.co/TaO3449ZCb

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

Why do people eat in restaurants when they can cook at home?

$CSU.TO

[steven capital 🐧 @lifelonghacker]

Gut feeling is telling me that none of this ever happened and it's all engagement farming.

March - employee vibe codes a bunch of software for their company and its much better

Now - the company switched back

Early indication that sentiment is shifting ? $csu $csu.to

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

@rja907 Haha we might still get that chance. Over the past year, CSU investors haven't really inspired much confidence in being long-term shareholders..

[Build a Thesis @buildathesis]

Unpopular take: With the market's overreaction to AI disruption cooling off on $CSU.TO and friends and Constellation's team beginning to demonstrate actual AI-driven efficiency gains, we may be in a sweet spot where the worst days are behind us and the companies are still cheap.