7 years ago I broke my own rule.
A position moved against me.
I was convinced it would come back.
So I averaged down.
It came back.
I got out green.
On paper, a beautiful trade.
But I knew the truth.
I hadn't been disciplined.
I'd gotten lucky.
And my brain logged it as a win anyway.
So I did it again.
But this time the market didn't care about my conviction.
I lost $500,000 in 2 days.
That trade never recovered.
That's the day I stopped measuring trades by whether they made money.
I started measuring them by whether I executed correctly.
A bad trade that makes you money teaches you the wrong lesson.
It just doesn't feel that way until it's too late.
Outcomes can lie…
Only your process compounds.
Stick to your rules.
$MSFT
Highest daily volume since Sept 2014.
Highest weekly volume since Mar 2020.
Will likely have the highest monthly volume since Mar 2020.
Both times pretty much marked THE bottom in the stock.
Extrapolate how you see fit.
Keep an eye out for $NVDA next week.
Down 5 days in a row and hasn’t gone 6 red days in a row since Aug-Sept 2022.
The 200dma around $190 should be a big support.
The 50wma around $187 should be a major support.
Also touching the lower Bollinger Bands for 3 consecutive days now, not common and should result in at least a near term bounce perhaps.
2027 P/E estimates at 16x now.
Getting close imho.
Every airline that has partnered with @Starlink so far:
• American Airlines
• Southwest Airlines
• United Airlines
• British Airways
• Singapore Airlines
• Emirates
• Qatar Airways
• Air France
• Hawaiian Airlines
• Alaska Airlines
• Virgin Atlantic
• Lufthansa
• Korean Air
• airBaltic
• Air Canada
• Aer Lingus
• Air Busan
• Air Dolomiti
• Air New Zealand
• flydubai
• Air Seoul
• Asiana Airlines
• Austrian Airlines
• SWISS
• SAS Scandinavian Airlines
• Gulf Air
• Iberia
• Discover Airlines
• ITA Airways
• Vueling
• Brussels Airlines
• Jin Air
• LEVEL
• WestJet
• Edelweiss Air
• JSX
• ZIPAIR Tokyo
• Eurowings
• EL AL
• Arajet
• Aero
$NOW closed up nearly 10%!
However, the thesis is bigger than a one day bounce.
ServiceNow is deeply embedded in enterprise workflows. AI can add value, expand customer spend, and raise switching costs.
Bullish or bearish on $NOW?
NEWS: California small fleets can now buy a Tesla Semi for as low as $50,000 by stacking two state incentive programs, Tesla Semi announced today.
The Tesla Semi MSRP is $290,000.
HVIP, the existing Clean Truck and Bus Voucher program, gives $120,000 off each Semi for up to 20 trucks.
CCFR, California's new Clean Fuel Reward program launching today, gives an additional $120,000 off each Semi with no purchase limit.
Combined, that is $240,000 in incentives. Net cost to a small fleet would be $50,000 per Semi.
That is 83% off the sticker price.
CCFR has $250 million available in 2026 and over $1 billion committed through 2030.
The program is funded by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, not federal money. It is independent of any federal EV credit changes.
Tesla Semi has captured 965 of 1,067 HVIP applications in California from January 2025 through February 2026. That is roughly 90% market share.
$NOW is down -34% this year… Up 8% today. One analyst meeting with management was all it took.
Oppenheimer said AI monetization is accelerating, the second half looks stronger, and growth could reaccelerate into 2027.
Meanwhile,
- $12.6B in contracted revenue already locked in
- 44% free cash flow margin
- AI contract target raised from $1B to $1.5B
- $5B share buyback authorized
The fear was that AI would replace companies like ServiceNow.
Instead, AI is helping $NOW sell more, charge more, and generate more cash.
$NOW is down -34% this year… Up 8% today. One analyst meeting with management was all it took.
Oppenheimer said AI monetization is accelerating, the second half looks stronger, and growth could reaccelerate into 2027.
Meanwhile,
- $12.6B in contracted revenue already locked in
- 44% free cash flow margin
- AI contract target raised from $1B to $1.5B
- $5B share buyback authorized
The fear was that AI would replace companies like ServiceNow.
Instead, AI is helping $NOW sell more, charge more, and generate more cash.
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Nasdaq has officially announced that @SpaceX will join the Nasdaq 100 early next week.
Index-tracking funds and other product sponsors will begin purchasing shares after the market closes on July 6, with SpaceX officially joining the Nasdaq-100 before trading begins on July 7.
BREAKING: Starlink just partnered with Tractor Supply and 4-H to help rural students and communities get better internet access. 🇺🇸
• Starlink will provide 100 Starlink kits and service to selected 4-H clubs, giving rural students better access to education and workforce development opportunities.
• The FCC says 22.3% of Americans in rural areas still lack standard broadband, compared with just 1.5% in urban areas.
• U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins joined Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton, National 4-H Council CEO Jill Bramble, and SpaceX’s David Goldman at the Great American State Fair to announce the alliance.
• Tractor Supply is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the U.S., while 4-H is America’s largest youth development organization
• Starlink, Tractor Supply, and 4-H have launched a new initiative to help bridge the digital divide in rural communities.
• Tractor Supply is contributing $500,000 to launch the initiative.
Starlink is doing exactly what satellite internet was meant to do: connecting the people and communities that traditional broadband has left behind.
Right now the space names are in the hangover phase from the $SPCX halo effect where investors who chased the move are taking profits and rotating elsewhere.
This has caused a major pullback across the whole bucket in the past month:
• $RKLB -46%
• $PL -50%
• $ASTS -52%
• $BKSY -53%
• $RDW -59%
• $FLY -59%
• $LUNR -60%
I think this is just the space trade moving from excitement-driven multiple expansion into a more selective phase.
The hype trade is cooling off but the long-term theme is still intact and next leg will be led by the companies that can prove real execution beyond the SpaceX halo.
Just a kind reminder…
The buying pressure of $SPCX is just getting started. Huge passive flows are still coming from index funds that must buy. Total estimated purchasing required across all remaining 2026 events from major index funds: $22–27B+
The real passive demand is still in front of us.
$SPCX is reportedly considering a direct-to-consumer Starlink mobile service in the U.S., which could put it in direct competition with $VZ, $T and $TMUS.
SpaceX is trying to move beyond carrier partnerships and turn Starlink into a full consumer connectivity platform.