Bumi

Wu Wei | Equities | Thematic Momentum Cycle Trader | Long & Short

[Bumi @bumitrades]

Looking to get active again this July. Stay tuned. Will be starting the account with $4,000 dollars and let’s see my development, learnings, and growth. Be a witness to the journey.

[Don Vandenbord @dvandenbord]

AI SECTOR BREAKDOWN - 65 STOCKS, 4 ETFs

MANY HAVE A PRESENCE ACROSS MULTIPLE SECTORS

WHAT'S MISSING?

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

ELON MUSK: “FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS AMERICA IS LIKELY TO WIN THE RACE IN AI. THEN IT WILL BE A FUNCTION OF WHO CONTROLS THE AI CHIP FABRICATION. IF MORE OF THE FACTORIES ARE OWNED BY CHINA THEN CHINA WILL WIN."

"RIGHT NOW ALL THE CHIP FABS ARE IN TAIWAN. 100%."

"IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN IN THE NEAR TERM THE WORLD WILL BE CUT OFF FROM ADVANCED AI CHIPS."

"I THINK IT'S ESSENTIAL FOR NATIONAL SECURITY THAT WE BEGIN MANUFACTURING OUR OWN CHIPS IN THE US.”

[stockbee @PradeepBonde]

The Weekly chart of the 20% study clearly shows how dramatically the markets have changed since 2020.
20% plus moves hitting 100 plus in a week were extremely rare; now they are a common occurrence.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

$REMX rare earth/lithium ETF setting up a textbook base - one of the cleanest and best I see.

Some components include $MP $LAR $SQM $ALB $SGML $UAMY

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

NOTES: PTJ on trading, investing, macro

Core trading philosophy

-You make the biggest money by riding a major trend for a very long time.
-Trading is like boxing: most of the time you are jabbing, feeling out the market, waiting for a clean opening.
-The real money comes from a few “knockout” opportunities.

Examples:
Bitcoin in 2020.
Short two-year notes in 2022.
Precious metals moves.
Potential yen rally setup.

Trader vs investor

-Investors can win by believing in a long-term compounding story.
-Buffett represents the ideal investor mindset: believe in America, tolerate 50% drawdowns, let compounding work.
-PTJ says he envies that belief system but does not naturally have it.
-His own approach is more trench warfare: daily, active, defensive, alpha-driven trading.
-His fund reportedly had a negative correlation to the S&P 500, so he sees his returns as alpha, not beta.

Compound interest

-He now deeply respects Buffett as “the OG of compound interest.”
-Buffett understood compounding at age nine.
-PTJ says he underappreciated compounding for much of his own career.

Charlie Munger’s key contribution: moving Buffett from cheap “50-cent dollars” toward great companies that compound.

Risk management

-Every great trader or investor is first and foremost a risk manager.
-Liquidity is central: “You’re only worth what you can write a check for tomorrow.”
-Seeing Brother Hunt go from one of the richest men in the world to nearly bankrupt after silver collapsed (within weeks) permanently shaped PTJ’s view.
->He learned never to trust any asset blindly.
-Avoid being trapped in illiquid positions when volatility explodes.
-AI worries him because the world is deploying it with little risk management despite huge tail risks.

Market opportunities

-Big opportunities usually come from:
-Markets getting too carried away.
-An imbalance lasting too long.
-A central bank doing something wrong.
-A government doing something wrong.
-Crowded complacency.
-An undervalued, underowned asset finally getting a catalyst.

Catalyst framework

His ideal macro trade seems to need:
1. Something underowned.
2. Something undervalued.
3. Something “way out of whack.”
4. Market complacency.
5. A catalytic moment.

Example: yen.
Yen is grossly undervalued.
Japan has a huge positive net international investment position.
Much of its foreign exposure is in the US and unhedged.

->A new dynamic, “Japan first” political leader could be the catalyst. (which just got elected. See Buffett major buys into this year)

He compares potential currency appreciation to what happened under Reagan, Thatcher, or Trump-style leadership shifts.

Example:2022 two-year note trade

-He believed there was too much fiscal stimulus.
Powell stayed too easy for too long.
-Once Biden reappointed Powell, PTJ saw it as “go time” to short two-year notes.
-The logic: the Fed would have to normalize policy.
Bubbles and valuation

Valuation matters.

-Buying the S&P 500 at very high valuations historically leads to poor or negative 10-year returns.
-He mentions an S&P P/E around 22 as historically dangerous for forward returns.
-The S&P is excellent over 100 years, but that includes periods when valuations were extremely low.
-Starting valuation drives long-term returns.
-Today’s market is harder because valuations are high.
-He sees public equities, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure as much more heavily owned than in 2007 to 2008.
-Private equity exposure in institutional portfolios has risen materially, creating more illiquidity risk.

Execution

-Execution is about buying when there is fear and selling when there is euphoria.
-“Am I buying when there’s blood on the ground?”
-“Am I selling when there’s complete elation?”
-Great execution requires intense focus on intraday highs/lows and pain points.
-You need a plan before the market opens.
-The plan should be self-executing when volatility hits.
-Being two or three hours late can be materially costly.
-Information overload damages execution quality.

Information overload

-Modern trading is harder because there is too much incoming information.
-Emails, news, and signals distract from observing price, fear, greed, and positioning.
-In the pit-trading era, he could focus more purely on market behavior.
-Today, macro traders must fight distraction to maintain execution quality.

Traits of great traders

-He thinks great traders are about 70% born, 30% made.
-Key traits:Type A personality.
-Intense curiosity.
-Love of competition.
-Love of games.
-Natural probability thinking.
-Emotional resilience.
-Ability to act under maximum fear or greed.
->Trading is another form of probability theory.

Lessons from Eli Tullis

-Eli was excellent at sensing maximum fear and maximum greed.
-He waited patiently for emotional extremes.
-After a huge loss in cotton, Eli remained composed and confident.
-Lesson: when things get brutal, you cannot emotionally collapse.
-You must wear confidence and believe you can come back.

Daily process

-He plans around the US open and close.
-He reserves time before and after the close to map out the next day.
-He thinks ahead to Tokyo, Hong Kong, and London.
-He wakes during the night to watch London open and do analytical work.
-The rhythm is constant because macro is global.
-Communication as trading skill
-Journalism-style writing helped him as a macro trader.

Put the conclusion first.

-Identify who, what, where, when, why, and how.
Rank information by importance.
-Trading requires principal component analysis of many variables.
-The most important variable changes over time.
-The trader’s job is to know what matters most right now for a given instrument.

Macro framework

-Markets are interconnected capital flows.
-Trading means understanding global flows and positioning across asset classes.
-Central banks and governments often create the biggest dislocations.
-The best trades often arise when policy error meets positioning imbalance.
-You must constantly ask: what is actionable now?

AI and markets

-AI is an exogenous risk variable.
-He sees AI as a major tail risk because it is being built with a “build, break, iterate” model.
-That model works for ordinary technology, but not when the “break” could cause catastrophic social damage.
-He believes AI should be regulated.
-He specifically argues all AI-generated content should be watermarked.
-AI could cause major workforce disruption within a few years.
-From a risk-manager’s lens, AI is currently under-managed.

Passion and longevity

-Trading keeps his mind sharp.
-He sees trading as mental therapy.
-He wants to keep working because “you retire, you die.”
-He still trades because he loves markets, competition, and the ability to make money to give away.

Best distilled PTJ trading rules

-Ride big trends as long as possible.
-Protect liquidity above everything.
-Never trust an asset blindly.
-Be a risk manager first.
-Wait for extreme fear or extreme greed.
-Look for underowned, undervalued, complacent setups with catalysts.
-Policy errors create big trades.
-Valuation matters, especially for long-term equity returns.
-Have a plan before volatility arrives.
-Execute when others freeze.
-Focus on what matters most right now.
-Avoid information overload.
-Trading is probability, not certainty.

[SMB Capital @smbcapital]

A+ Setup Checklist:

☑️ Strong higher timeframe context
☑️ Clear catalyst or reason for attention
☑️ Daily chart in a breakout / expansion phase
☑️ Elevated relative volume
☑️ Tight intraday consolidation (wedge/flag)
☑️ Volume contracts → then expands on break

If these line up… you’ve got a high-quality setup.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

Positioning + sentiment is and will likely always be the best indicator for forward returns.

[Kirill @kirillk_web3]

> use Claude every day
> think I'm pretty good at this
> watch two Anthropic engineers for 16 minutes
> Barry and Mahesh explain Skills from scratch
> first 5 minutes
> wait. Skills are just folders?
> folders that remember your workflow?
> your domain? your expertise?
> pause. rewind. watch again.
> think about every prompt I rewrote from zero
> every context I explained 100 times
> every session that forgot everything
> it didn't have to be like this
> 16 minutes. everything changes.
> skill issue discovered

[JackTheRippler ©️ @RippleXrpie]

🇨🇳 Chinese Professor says that President Trump might be a genius.

🇺🇸 THE BIG PLAN

[Bumi @bumitrades]

If you are filipino, you have to be ready for the bad and good to come. Here’s a conversation I had with a close friend about what’s to come. This is about real estate in the country and the war rn…

[Bumi @bumitrades]

@PradeepBonde How would you have executed FSLY on day 1 of news considering market environment for momentum was weak around the past 2 weeks. Would the consolidation breakout around 11:30 be a decent entry for a better R:R management?

[Bumi @bumitrades]

@TradeZella ME

[Trade_the_Matrix @TradetheMatrix1]

Breakdown of latest #smallcaps cold cycle that came around end of January and why it was possible to call it ahead:

Every time smallcaps cycles are triggered by hot sectors (hot flows) or lack of hot sectors (cold flows).
When plenty of hot sectors are in play in large caps like we had at end of December (metals, software, etc...) the smallcaps catch up on the momentum and we get large % movers in smallcaps. Strong risk-ON global market does that.

When hot sectors are pulled away and go into bear trends like we had at end of January (software, semiconductors, metals #silver $NFLX $ORCL $PLTR $MU...) the smallcaps follow shortly after.

But here is the key to "call it ahead" what triggers all of sudden this large cap hot sectors to go into bear trends ALL at once?
Global risk profile shifting via major global catalyst. Some huge macro story that is risk-off disruptive. US-Iran as that example recently.

This is why i always say smallcap trader needs to be generalist and study macroeconomic and how global economy functions to see what out there is latest big story that could impact broad global markets. Smallcaps never shift cycles randomly.

As soon as US-Iran deadline started to narrow and US armada arrived in PGulf the global institutional market makers pulled the bid.
Its always the same recipe.
#stocks

[Bumi @bumitrades]

Market rotating more onto defensive stance in look and see what happens. Question is where will all the metals liquidity rotate into?

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Time to profitability for even top Market Wizards:

[Bumi @bumitrades]

@TedHZhang As the markets shifts its eyes from the Old AI Darlings (NVDA, TSLA, AVGO, etc.), for the next layer of AI, who are you seeing as the new main darling? The AI theme is so broad like an onion with infinite layers. Materials - Energy - Hardware - Software AI - Physical AI, etc.

[Trade_the_Matrix @TradetheMatrix1]

On the rigging:

Was thinking about this over years...

In era of empowered lower and middle class with wealth and technological edge increasing the lines between elites and others are getting more blurred now than ever before.

So as answer to this shrinking gap...elites rig to the fuck everything to retain some edge over the masses which are becoming more competitive. Rigging for elites and insaiders gives predictable outcomes of winners to position on right side while masses have to figure out this on their own.

This is systemic (advanced masses feed the loop for elites to rig even more) which means it will get worse and worse as time goes, more rigged because the evolutionary trend of empowered masses isnt going to turn any time soon. So the rig upticks as result. So this perma psyop we are living in past 5 years...get used to it. It aint going anywhere.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The best tickers give you multiple opportunities to get long or short for different trades.

Its your job to be super focused and capitalize but its also your job to be able to let go if you missed it.

If you pre-exhaust, if you can't accept you missed the opportunity, you'll just make sure you will for the next setups too.

For these super tickers, you end up having 2-3 more opportunities along the way and should in theory end up nicely green on what I estimate to be 70-80% of those tickers over time.

Detached, focused.

Strong opinions loosely held.

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

Many of you have inquired about the AI prompt I use in perplexity to quickly understand a stock, its themes, competitors and catalysts.

Here it is:

Please analyze [TICKER] for me and provide the following, concise and clearly organized:

1. **Explain what the company does in like I'm 12 years old** - three short bullet points about what it does and any helpful relatable examples and analogies.

2. **Professional summary (max 10 sentences)** - industry, main products/services, primary competitors (list tickers), notable metrics or achievements, competitive advantage/moat, why they are unique and if they are a biotech provide if they have a commercial product or in clinical stages.

3. In a table, provide the follwoing:

* Any hot theme, narrative or story of the stock
* Any catalysts (earnings, news, macro)
* Any significant fundamentals (huge growth in earnings or revenues, moat, unique product or service, superior management, patents etc)

4. **Show all the main news/events for the last 3 months:** - Use a bullet-point table for: - Date (YYYY-MM-DD) - Event type (Earnings, Product Launch, Analyst Upgrade/Downgrade, etc.) - Short summary (max 1-2 sentences) - Direct source link - Mark any major price-moving events (surprise earnings, large guidance shift, top-tier analyst actions).

5. **Mention any recent insider buys/sells or institutional filings if visible.**

6. **Summarize how the stock is moving vs. main competitors and overall sector trend in past month (up/down).**

7. **Flag upcoming catalysts (earnings, product launches, regulatory events) in the next 30 days.**

8. **Note any changes in analyst price targets for this ticker during the period above.** - Format for easy review. If possible, use tables for events and peer moves. - Respond in clear, concise, easily readable style for use in trading decisions.

Overall, Focus on the reasons why the stock can make a big move in the future - earnings, sales, guidance, product launches, analyst upgrades/downgrades, insider buying especially from CEO/Founder and executive team, partnerships, and sector/news catalysts. I want to focus on stocks with catalysts and themes as catalysts are the cause of big moves in the stock market.

Finally, discuss and bring up any relevant previous perplexity queries and conversations.

[Bumi @bumitrades]

@TedHZhang @Wordsofrizdom Thank you!