Gavin

college basketball analytics

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

May have to touch up this bad boy with updated numbers given the Wooden feels as up-for-grabs as it has been in maybe 9-10 years

Also brought back some PTSD of watching Broome roll his ankle while in the lead at 50-1

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

20+ Wooden Award Thoughts🧵

1. Distribution - in the L20 years, 9 winners were Centers, 6 were Wings, 4 were PGs, 1 was an off-ball (Reddick). 4 Frosh in the L20 (Zion/AD/Griffin/KD)...so...in other words, 4 of the 7-10 best CBB players in the L20 years. COOPER FLAGG ODDS WHERE

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

Which Lithuanian Mountain would you rather have next year?

Left the question open-ended b/c I may toss together a thread about these two

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

Will Wade's offense next year

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@3ballpodcast Even though I thought they underperformed their talent last year, they still vastly improved from that team of Osobor + NPCs two years ago

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

Alright, fun trivia question from this exercise I am doing

16 coaches over the last 5 years moved from a midmajor job to a P5 one and spent at least 2 years at that P5

14 of them improved their analytical ranking from Year 1 to Year 2 at their P5

Who were the two who didn't?

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@TheMightyHams Yes on 1 no on 2

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

Other funny notes

All the coaches this year finished inside the Top 100, so this didn't quite apply to them, but how about Lamont Paris and Rob Lanier having the biggest jumps from 1st to 2nd year at their P5

Before both left for their P5 jobs, Matt McMahon and Todd Golden faced one another in the 7/10 seed NCAA Tourney game. Murray St beat San Francisco. I think we know what directions both those careers headed after that game

Of the 18 that improved in Year 2, 11 did so by less than 20 spots (and another was 22 spots), so we aren't talking about giant leaps for the most part.

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

It felt like new P5 coaches were making big strides in their 2nd years on the job. Several coaches are entering that follow-up season, so I wanted to put some quick numbers together for curiosity's sake

My thought process being these were guys who, generally, successfully built-up smaller programs over multiple years through development and retention, and that they'd likely fare much better with a full offseason. Remember, a lot of these guys were at the MM level when the portal opened earlier on the calendar, so if they made the tournament, you were really behind the 8-ball in Year 1

To be clear, these are guys over the last 5 years who moved from a midmajor job to a P5 one and spent at least 2 years at that P5. Initially, I wanted to keep it to those who have been at their P5 either 2 or 3 years, but for additional sample purposes, I tacked on that extra group of coaches who have been at their P5 for four years. Tried to keep things constrained to the past couple seasons when the portal has massively ramped up in volume and teams are turning over much more

I was curious about analytical ranking improvements, but I also included ATS data for an added barometer of success to market expectations as well as tourney results to show who had that late start on the portal

Those who did not qualify but I added for more perspective
-Mark Pope's final year at BYU was technically in the B12, so it didn't quite fit the criteria I was looking for
-Kyle Smith's last year at Wazu was technically in the P12 even though they were WCC the year after
-Damon Stoudamire had the couple year NBA break in between Pacific and Georgia Tech and his last year at Pacific was the covid year

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

Those who fit the criteria for this year & ending KP rank

Ben McCollum (22)
Bucky McMillan (39)
Ryan Odom (17)
Niko Medved (82)
Richard Pitino (94)
Ross Hodge (55)

(Darian DeVries, kinda, but not technically)

Feel pretty good saying that Minnesota and Xavier should be a fair bit better. Probably WVU as well, especially if Sylla puts it together while fully healthy, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they hover around the 50s again

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@playformarch When I started, I did not know that it would become an inadvertent attack on a man of the people @2ndChancePoints

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@Benson_Four_3 it fell out from under him last year, but he also improved in his second season. Hubbard showing up to campus surely helped.

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@JonathanLidskin @Sam_Federman @BBBCBBPodcast hold the phone. I have received some TROUBLING evidence. Potential tainting of the trivia purity.

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@mcholland34 “Our boy” took me all the way out haha

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@JonathanLidskin Can confirm it took @Sam_Federman more guesses than you to get it 😂

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@mcholland34 Moser year too early but would have qualified. Yes on Dennis

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

@JoryHansen1 he 'technically' avoids the list because his final year at BYU was in the B12. But yes, would have made it

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

I think Chance Westry could be one of THE most underrated transfers of the entire offseason with what he'll do for Xavier

Offensively, he and Richard Pitino are a match made in heaven. Westry took 77% of his 2PAs at the rim last year and shot over 63% when he got there, two of the best marks among ANY of the on-ball transfers. Any idea where New Mexico ranked nationally in Near Proximity Frequency in Pitino's final two years? That would be *checks notes* oh yeah, 1st and 1st. They also ranked Top 10 in Tempo both those years*. Optimal skill-to-scheme fit in terms of running & hammering the rim

Westry's concerns come in the form of perimeter shooting, no doubt. He also had a 26.8% Assist Ratio to a 13.6% TO%. That's pretty damn elite. Add on that he's now surrounded by
1. Dominguez (Top 5ish shooter in CBB)
2. Milicevic (has a claim to best Stretch 4 in country)
3. Tru Washington who has increased his 3P% all 3 years (28.2% to 33.1% to 35.2%)

Plenty of spacing/shooting. Plenty of tempo. Plenty of looks at the rim. Plenty of ball screens with a really underrated roll man in Nwoko.

I haven't even touched on the defense, where his 6'6 size provides Pitino flexibility to slide him up and down the lineup to hide Dominguez defensively.

Plus, he's paired next to Tru Washington, a guy who cut his teeth on the defensive end of the floor and was elite for Pitino in that regard covering for a heavy usage on-ball guy in Donovan Dent. @Isaac__Trotter said it best to me: "witness protection" for opposing backcourts some nights.

Also, a former Top 50 high school guy for those that are into that sort of thing. I tend to not value pedigree much at all after a guy's third year, but Westry also hardly played his first two years so maybe it's worth a tad more

That Xavier point guard spot was the last starter they had to fill. There were many guys in the portal they could have brought in who would have been poor fits to scheme and personnel.

*While last year was the worst season in 20+ years for Xavier, Pitino also won a tourney game which gave him a late start to the portal. On top of it being pre-rev share. I think this roster looks MUCH more like his New Mexico teams than last year's Muskies

[Gavin @BuriedTreys]

I could not be more in on this New Mexico backcourt

If Hudson Mayes can be a Catch & Shoot 3P threat on even moderate volume, that 3-man group will be an absolute handful. Mayes shot 89% from the FT line on 72 attempts in Big West play but only 27.3% from 3 on barely 1 attempt per game. Big swing skill for the ceiling of that backcourt.

Tenette reminds me a littleeee bit of younger Nick Boyd, the lefty shooting stroke aside

Wouldn't be surprised if they made the tournament and gave a P5 hell

(KJ has profiled a couple guys in recent weeks who I am also high on this year like CJ Shaw)

[KJ @KJScouting]

New Mexico’s Uriah Tenette is one of the top breakout candidates in college basketball next year.

The 5’10 PG had a strong freshman year where he averaged 11/3/3 where he mainly played in a 6th man role for New Mexico.

Tenette is a high level athlete and defender who was one of the best defenders in Mid Major basketball this year and plays with an incredibly high motor on both ends.

Tenette is great at getting to the rim at a high level who uses his athleticism to create passing looks for his teammates and was also a strong off the dribble mid range and 3pt scorer who can create space effectively. Tenette is also good pushing it in transition after a defensive play he created for a two way play.

Tenette is set to be the full time starter for New Mexico next season and his mix of athleticism, defense, 3 level scoring upside, playmaking, and rim creation gives him the potential to be one of the best Mid Major players in college basketball next year and really intriguing longterm.