bush

2 months ago

1u .5u .25 Going to write this one up later

12K

bushh__ retweeted

2 months ago

📊 7/21/26 recap ***everything tracked at CLV*** Lot of market movement yesterday leading to Perkins being the only pitcher to close as a ladder signal, great hit on Avila but his odds tanked as soon as that lineup dropped main lines: overall: +2.38u (13-10) ✅ overs: +1.28u (3-2) unders: +1.10u (10-8) Methods: Theory Stack: +3.72u (5 plays) ✅ Plus Odds Unders ≥3%: +2.72u (4 plays) ✅ Strict Centered Unders: +1.36u (3 plays) ✅ Centered Unders: +1.10u (16 plays) ✅ positive edge ladders: -0.75u (0-2) perkins -0.75u (0-2) ❌

bushh__ retweeted

2 months ago

Lemme see something real quick 0.5u 0.25u 0.2u

10K

bushh__ retweeted

Jay Mudra 23 Follow IG: Jayymudraa23

2 months ago

Home Run Cole is coming today

Who to follow

SeansEchoChamber

@SeanPhalen47

• ♊ • RIP JUSTIN • RIP GINGER CHRIS• RIP BRITTANY •

bushh__ retweeted

2 months ago

Dean Kremer vs BOS Batter by Batter Breakdown Context Mean: 5.59 Ks Split Influence: Slight Damp Leash: Medium Lineup: Confirmed Reverse splits mainly due to his splitter, about 4% higher K rate vs LHH than RHH The ceiling is carried by three main pitches: Splitter beneath the zone against both sides Curveball toward the back foot of LHH Cutter low and away to RHH Kremer’s 5.59 mean is not especially high, but the distribution is more favorable than the mean alone suggests. The model gives him a 48.57% probability of six or more and a 32.97% probability of seven or more Arsenal overview vs LHH Splitter: 33.8% usage, 30.2% CSW, 41.9% whiff, 34.9% chase Four seam: 29.1% usage, 27.5% CSW, 14.0% whiff, 24.1% chase Curveball: 17.6% usage, 29.3% CSW, 20.7% whiff, 36.6% chase Sinker: 12.5% usage, 23.4% CSW, 14.0% whiff Cutter: 5.1% usage vs RHH Cutter: 34.1% usage, 27.7% CSW, 25.8% whiff, 30.3% chase Sinker: 27.5% usage, 35.0% CSW, 5.1% whiff Four seam: 18.9% usage, 25.7% CSW, 11.6% whiff Splitter: 11.1% usage, 26.8% CSW, 39.9% whiff, 35.5% chase Curveball: 6.0% usage, 32.8% CSW, 25.2% whiff The cutter is the primary pitch, but the splitter is the best pure swing and miss pitch 1. Masataka Yoshida (L) 21.5% matchup Adj K% Yoshida is difficult to overpower with velocity, against 4SFBs from RHP, he has only a: 7.4% K rate 5.2% whiff rate 2.3% SwStr rate His cutter numbers are even more contact heavy, with a 3.2% K rate and 6.3% putaway rate. The curveball creates the cleanest (and really only) strikeout route: 34.8% K rate, 41.7% CSW, 27.9% whiff, 24.2% putaway, .210 xwOBA, .048 ISO The splitter can also generate misses, with a 32.5% whiff rate and 16.3% SwStr rate, but Yoshida has produced more damage against that pitch than the curveball. The preferred curveball location is beneath the zone on Kremer’s glove side, Yoshida’s breaking ball putaway rate rises to approximately 24% in that area. Kremer should establish the elevated fastball inside before dropping the curveball beneath the hands. Yoshida is unlikely to chase a breaking ball that starts too far outside the zone as he's a pretty disciplined hitter. Strikeout pitch prediction: Backfoot curveball Confidence: Low 2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 22.6% matchup Adj K% Rafaela’s biggest vulnerability is the splitter, against splitters from RHP 44.8% K rate 37.9% whiff 23.9% SwStr rate 51.7% chase 24.5% putaway .193 xwOBA .107 ISO That directly overlaps with Kremer’s best pitch to righties, splitter has a 39.9% whiff rate and is concentrated low and away. The ideal sequence is a sinker around the inner half or an elevated four seam, followed by the splitter beneath the outer edge. Rafaela has meaningful whiff and putaway vulnerability both around the low and away corner and completely beneath the low away edge. Strikeout pitch prediction: Splitter fading low and away beneath the zone. Confidence: high 3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 20.8% matchup Adj K% Abreu’s four seam profile provides the most viable strikeout option: 28.4% K rate 26.1% CSW 19.2% whiff 20.1% putaway The contact quality risk is significant, though... Abreu owns a .234 ISO against four seamers from RHP, so Kremer cannot challenge him around the belt. The preferred fastball location is elevated on Kremer’s glove side, which is up and in to the left handed Abreu, as he has shown elevated swinging strike and putaway results against fastballs in that area. Albeit improved this year over last year. The curveball is the secondary option. Abreu has a 31.5% CSW rate against curves, but he has also produced a .394 ISO against them, Kremer must finish completely beneath the zone rather than remaining around the lower middle portion. The splitter does not provide the same matchup advantage as it does against several other Boston hitters, Abreu has only a 13.5% K rate and 9.3% putaway rate against splitters. Strikeout pitch prediction: Elevated four seam up and in, above the hands. Confidence: Moderate. 4. Willson Contreras (R) 24.5% matchup Adj K% Several strong strikeout vulnerabilities here Against curveballs from RHP: 50.0% K rate 35.3% CSW 34.6% whiff 32.0% putaway .228 xwOBA .069 ISO Against cutters: 35.5% K rate 34.6% CSW 35.7% whiff 34.4% putaway Against splitters: 38.9% K rate 44.9% whiff 23.9% SwStr .247 xwOBA The cutter is the most realistic primary prediction because Kremer throws it 34% of the time against RHH and naturally targets Contreras’ low and away vulnerability. Kremer’s cutter is heavily concentrated beneath the outer edge, with additional usage around the low and away corner, Contreras has elevated putaway results against breaking and hard glove side pitches The curveball and splitter give Kremer two slower alternatives if Contreras begins covering the cutter. Both should finish in the same general low away area. Strikeout pitch prediction: Cutter finishing low and away, just beneath the outer edge. Confidence: High. 5. Caleb Durbin (R) 12.2% matchup Adj K% Durbin is clearly the toughest strikeout here, need to not let him ruin the pitch count with a 12 pitch AB His K rates against Kremer’s main fastballs are extremely low: Four seam: 10.8% Sinker: 6.7% Cutter: 4.2% He also has whiff rates below 10% against all of these pitches. The splitter and curveball provide the only realistic swing and miss: Splitter: 25.0% K rate and 24.2% whiff Curveball: 20.8% K rate and .228 xwOBA The location is paramount here, Durbin has shown more vulnerability when offspeed pitches finish low and away edge rather than being buried several inches off the plate. Kremer should use the sinker inside to establish horizontal separation, then throw the splitter through the lower middle portion before letting it fall toward the outside corner. Strikeout pitch prediction: Splitter at the low and away edge, falling just beneath the zone. Confidence: Very Low 6. Romy Gonzalez (R) 29.2% matchup Adj K% Gonzalez is the best strikeout target in the lineup. His splitter profile is extreme: 45.5% K rate 38.7% CSW 47.1% whiff 25.8% SwStr rate 47.4% chase 38.5% putaway .139 xwOBA .000 ISO The location overlap is nearly perfect as well Gonzalez has a 34.4% SwStr rate and 50.0% putaway rate against offspeed pitches beneath the low and away edge with Kremer throws approximately 45% of his splitters to that exact area. The four seam is also a viable strikeout pitch, Gonzalez has a 38.6% K rate against it, but the splitter offers far better damage suppression. Kremer should establish the fastball above the zone or the sinker inside, then let the splitter disappear beneath the outer portion of the plate. Strikeout pitch prediction: Splitter buried low and away. Confidence: Very high. 7. Jarren Duran (L) 27.8% matchup Adj K% Duran is another strong breaking ball target. Against curveballs from RHP: 32.7% K rate 32.2% CSW 35.9% whiff 15.3% SwStr rate 25.0% putaway .255 xwOBA .063 ISO Against splitters: 27.9% K rate 34.9% whiff 18.6% SwStr rate 23.9% putaway .279 xwOBA Both pitches provide a legitimate strikeout route, but the curveball has the strongest location overlap. Duran has a 40.7% SwStr rate and 40.6% putaway rate against breaking balls beneath the zone on Kremer’s glove side. Kremer’s curveball is also concentrated there, giving him a direct overlap between pitcher intent and hitter vulnerability. The four seam should be elevated up and in to move Duran’s eye level before the curveball drops beneath his hands. Strikeout pitch prediction: Curveball buried down and in toward the back foot. Confidence: Very high. 8. Connor Wong (R) 22.8% matchup Adj K% Wong has limited pitch-level samples, but the splitter presents the best swing-and-miss route. Against splitters from RHP, he has a 37.5% K rate in the available sample. His offspeed location map is even more favorable: Approximately 50% swinging strikes around the bottom middle portion Approximately 66% putaway in the same area Elevated SwStr results beneath the low and away edge Kremer’s splitter is extremely effective when finishing around the bottom rail, producing SwStr rates above 40% in parts of that region. The cutter is a less attractive option. Wong has produced a .460 xwOBA against cutters in the available sample, and his overall cutter K rate is only 10%. Kremer should work the sinker or fastball around the inner and upper portions of the zone, then drop the splitter beneath the middle to outer zone. Strikeout pitch prediction: Splitter at the bottom of the zone, finishing low and away. Confidence: High, with a smaller hitter sample. 9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 25.0% matchup Adj K% Very limited sample here, he strikes out at about a 27% clip vs RHP, handedness split working in Kremer's favor, hoping for at least 2 Ks from him. Expected strikeout distribution Primary strikeout targets Romy Gonzalez Jarren Duran Tsung-Che Cheng Willson Contreras Secondary targets Ceddanne Rafaela Connor Wong Wilyer Abreu Toughest matchups Masataka Yoshida Caleb Durbin

3 months ago

@ReVLiTHoUSe I love how windys biggest point is the salary, pg makes the same amount as brown over the next 2 years!!!!! What are we talking about??? ESPN is so dead lolll

4 months ago

@UnderdogNBA And you almost pooped ur pants brother lmaoo thank god for you fox sold it

4 months ago

@DJMartinez06 @TrodeeBoy13 This is the most 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 comment ever lmaoo just say ur a hater. If this happened to you im sure you’d have a very similar reaction smfh dork

over 2 years ago

feel so bad for ant having KAT as his 2nd option

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