🚨 Did the team behind $SA1T just relaunch under a new name?
I’m not claiming this is proven.
But after digging through contracts, docs, GitHub and the timeline…
The similarities between $SA1T and Programmable ($V4) are hard to ignore.
Receipts below 👇
@0xprogrammable
When should I buy ethereum:0x643c4e15d7d62ad0abec4a9bd4b001aa3ef52d66 ?
I wrote about exactly this two weeks ago in my Maple deep dive and laid out what I wanted to see before adding:
“The loan book just hit an all time high, and a good chunk of that growth has not shown up in revenue yet either. The nice thing is that this is very easy to prove. By this logic, July and August revenue should start turning up. That is the exact thing I will personally be watching.”
Basically, there’s about a one month lag before AUM growth starts trickling through into revenue.
I ultimately decided not to buy after writing this report, although I'm still bullish. My thinking at the time was pretty simple:
“I could probably even convince myself to get ahead of what I think will be strong July and August numbers and just buy now. But I don’t think the market is that efficient yet. I feel like I have time to wait for more evidence and de-risk my buys a bit further.”
So we've arrived at the first checkpoint from my article. July revenue is currently at $1.318 M through 30 days. At the same daily pace, it should finish the month around $1.36 M (only one day left).
That would give us three green months in a row since the May bottom.
This is great. The lag thesis is doing exactly what I expected it to do. But so far this still isn’t quite the growth I was looking for.
As mentioned, the loan book hit an all time high AUM and a meaningful chunk of that growth should really start flowing through in the August numbers.
The number I really want to see revenue approaching is ~$2M per month.
At a current $200M FDV, July’s projected revenue puts SYRUP at roughly 12.2x on an ARR basis. At $2M per month, that falls to about 8.3x.
Also coincidentally $2M per month is where the new MIP-021 buyback formula reaches its top tier. At that level, 30% of revenue would go toward buybacks instead of the current 10%.
So the multiple falls from roughly 12.2x to 8.3x, while monthly buybacks jump from around $136,000 to $600,000. I think this is where it starts to get more interesting at these prices.
Getting from July’s projected $1.36M to $2M would require roughly 47% month over month growth.
That’s a decent bump, but they’ve been there before and had plenty of months above $2M in revenue not that long ago. And given the ATH loan book and the lag between new loans and revenue, it’s also a very clean test of the lag thesis.
So my plan hasn’t really changed. I still don’t see much urgency to add until the revenue improves a bit more and I think it will.
I'm going to keep an eye on these revenue numbers. If Maple is sitting around $1M halfway through the month of August, that’s roughly a $2M revenue month taking shape. That's sort of what I'll be looking out for to increase my SYRUP position.
The cool thing is, we don't need to wait for quarterly earnings calls here. We can monitor the situation daily in real-time 📈
if you want to read my full SYRUP report it's in the next post below:
I am now 10000% certain this is a rug $v4 @0xprogrammable . There was an identical project on eth a month back called $sa1t that was doing the exact same thing, including the hackathon! Do not buy this project and dump your bag!
@kyle@damian_et