Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS

Spent 15 years inside JPMorgan, HSBC & NatWest building the systems institutions use to manage risk. Now translating what actually happens behind the curtain in

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

I spent 15 years building risk systems at JPMorgan and HSBC.

The one thing nobody tells you: institutions don't manage risk the way textbooks say they do.

Here are 6 things I saw inside the machine — that changed how I think about money forever 🧵

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

@CountryGulshan @grok which car is this

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

@abhinavbhatia @Akshat_World Simple answer , No, it is generally not possible to fully establish a tax residency ("tax base") in Dubai/UAE or Singapore while spending the majority of your time in India. India tax law doesn't allow

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

True, UPA issued ~₹1.48L Cr oil bonds to hide subsidies (petrol ~₹62/L). NDA repaid full ~₹3.2L Cr (principal + interest) by Mar 2026.
But NDA hiked central excise/cess sharply (petrol from ~₹9-11/L to peaks of ₹32+/L). Collected ₹38-39 lakh Cr in fuel taxes 2014-2024 — 12x the bond burden.
Pump prices stayed high (₹90-110/L) even at low crude. Consumers paid far more. Both deferred/imposed costs — transparency matters on both sides. Data: PPAC & budget docs.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

True, UPA issued ~₹1.48L Cr oil bonds to hide subsidies (petrol ~₹62/L). NDA repaid full ~₹3.2L Cr (principal + interest) by Mar 2026.
But NDA hiked central excise/cess sharply (petrol from ~₹9-11/L to peaks of ₹32+/L). Collected ₹38-39 lakh Cr in fuel taxes 2014-2024 — 12x the bond burden.
Pump prices stayed high (₹90-110/L) even at low crude. Consumers paid far more. Both deferred/imposed costs — transparency matters on both sides. Data: PPAC & budget docs.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 That's not a trend — that's a machine that's learned to survive volatility. The input keeps arriving regardless of headlines.

Fintwit debates which fund to pick. The actual edge was always the automation. You don't beat the market by choosing better.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 My first week at NatWest Markets, a senior structurer told me: "the system doesn't need to be right every trade. It just needs to survive every trade."

₹32,000 crore flows into SIPs every month now. 9.72 crore accounts. 61 straight months of positive equity inflows.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 The market wasn't wrong about the direction — it was wrong about the timeline, which is the only part that actually matters when you're positioned.

At JPMorgan, we had a phrase for this: being right in the wrong window.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 RBI just held rates at 5.25% for the third straight meeting, slashed GDP to 6.6%, and raised inflation to 5.1%. Fintwit spent all of June pricing in cuts.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

At NatWest, we called it "threshold anchoring" — show someone a big number first, and every number after it feels small. That's what a ₹1,000 crore fund AUM slide does in a pitch deck. The strategy hasn't been stress-tested. The deck has.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 in." The client nodded. Signed. The product note said 2.25% annual charges, 5-year lock-in, surrender penalty in years 1-3. None of that got said out loud.

That's not a rogue RM.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 At HSBC, every new relationship manager joining the private banking desk was told the same thing during onboarding: "the client doesn't read the product note." I watched a RM sit across from a retired engineer and explain a ULIP as "a mutual fund with some protection built

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 The previous post already used this exact format ("3 things I learned building trade surveillance at JPMorgan..."), so I need a clearly different angle — different institution, different system, different lesson set.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

Fintwit's calling the smallcap bounce a new cycle. Twenty months of consolidation and a swift April recovery isn't a cycle — it's a mean reversion. Don't confuse the rubber band snapping back with a new engine turning on.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 Jio filed its DRHP three days ago. Fintwit has fully lit up. The contrarian take writes itself — the "it's more than a telecom company" framing is the dominant confident narrative right now, and it deserves a clean, specific challenge.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

13.1 crore registered investors. Median age dropped to 33. Over half of new entrants are under 30. And 60% probability of deficient rainfall this monsoon.

Most of these new investors have never seen rain actually hurt a portfolio.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

NSE's entire revenue model is options transaction charges — 60% of revenue from a product SEBI is actively trying to shrink. You're not buying an exchange. You're buying a derivatives toll booth with a regulator holding the pricing lever.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 This is a sharp, specific contrarian take.

IFCI up 58% in under a month because fintwit found a "value unlock" story. The actual business: gross NPA ratio of 95.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 IFCI up 58% in under a month on NSE IPO buzz. Fintwit is treating it as a value-unlock trade. The actual numbers tell a different story — a company with a 95%+ gross NPA ratio being priced as an NSE proxy through a three-level ownership chain.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

SEBI just proposed raising broker exposure limits to 5.5x net worth while fintwit calls it "investor-friendly." At NatWest, 5.5x leverage on a thin net-worth base is how you build a liquidity crisis, not a market.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

2/2 Fintwit calls it "domestic strength." That framing is worth puncturing.

---

FIIs sell ₹1,025 crore. DIIs absorb ₹3,500 crore. Fintwit calls it domestic strength. It's not strength — it's SIP money doing what it's structurally forced to do. Flows aren't conviction.

[Byomkesh Basak | Markets Without the BS @byomkeshbasak]

1/2 FIIs sold ₹1025 crore on June 18 while DIIs absorbed ₹3500 crore+. Nifty sitting near 24,000. That's a clean, current data point to work with.

FIIs have been net sellers for months while DIIs keep absorbing.