tylerr

[Hanzo ㊗️ @DeFi_Hanzo]

FAST POLYMARKET ARBITRAGE 🚨

Polymarket takes price from ChainLink

Chainlink is under DDOS attack

Polymarket price is 3 minutes before real price

Your welcome. Free money

[Jumper Pass @jumperpass]

Jumpers, check your FOLKS airdrop eligibility.

If you participated in our @FolksFinance mission in February, you MIGHT be eligible for a stimmy 👇

[Route 2 FI @Route2FI]

A completely unsaturated market on Polymarket is the "Bitcoin up or down" 15 min.

Every 15 min you get a price to beat, in this screenshot: $101,747. So you can bet up if you think the price will be higher, or bet down if you think it will be lower.

At the start of the bet, on the 15 min left mark, it should be a breakeven bet (50/50). However, the odds are 51/51, which equals 1.96 in odds on both sides. So far, so good.

But after following quite a few of these 15 minute bets over time, I noticed that the odds is completely skewed. Take a look at the screenshot again:

To beat: $101,747
Current price: $101,501
Odds: 12c (8.26 decimal). (The screenshot says 8c, but with $100 size it gives 12c).

If we use 12c, it means that there is a 88% probability this won't happen. Again, at the 15 min mark this should be 50/50. But with 5 min left, and the fact that the current price is 0,2% lower than "price to beat" maybe the correct odds should be 65/35, or even 70/30. But here you are getting paid 88/12, which is massively +EV, and is a bet you should take any day of the week.

Several ways to go about this:

-You could try to hedge on both sides. For example if you captured the 8.26 odds, you could try to capture 1.30 (77c) on the other side if it swings back for a 12,3% sure win. Use a sure win calc for the math: https://t.co/aN1nLLNWf5

-You could do the naked bet (only playing the 8.26 odds) and hope that you win. Capturing these kind of bets will make you a winner long term at least. Use Kelly criterion or if you are max degen a 1/10 Martingale (oops, you may end up broke).

They have this kind of market for BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP. 99% sure this kind of market will be saturated soon, so if you are a fresh Polymarket player, go here to farm volume. Only possible with small bet sizes: $50-$200.

[MadMaxx (∎, ∆) @MadMaxx_eth]

If you bought $1,000 worth of $ZK last week

You would now have $100,000

Crazy

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

6 LLMs with all the knowledge in the world and none in profit after 20 days
what does this mean

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

gLighter🕯️

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@mdudas back to 126 we go

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@Huntersolider hey hunter

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

i'm long, on like everything

[markhor @wetmarkhor]

if you're under the age of 25, you're top priority should be accumulating 1000 HYPE with every dollar you make trading & working.

i believe we'll see a day within the next decade where 1 HYPE = $1000 [$350B marketcap].

unless something drastic changes, the HYPE thesis will ALWAYS remain the same. if the bear market does come, the only token i'd consider fullporting is hyperliquid.

[Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph]

🔥 LATEST: Hyperliquid leads all blockchains in fees over the past 24 hours, surpassing BNB Chain, Tron, and Ethereum.

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@JamesWynnReal 123,983

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

I signed The Promise of the Fremen! @gaib_ai

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@BlurCrypto what ru farming rn? and is lighter one?

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@BlurCrypto who woulda thought
only the 10th protocol to farm us

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

close short open long idek

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

+200-300% on $MON short (been taking P)
+reopened my $btc short

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

+200-300% on $MON short (been taking P)
+reopened my $btc short

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

I agree with this, I think we see one more fall before aths

[markhor @wetmarkhor]

added to my BNB shorts @ $1286~, the entire upward push was very forced for the entire crypto market.

sustainable upward trend is very unlikely and we'll prob see everything push downwards soon.

and yes, im counter-trading all ur favourite ct gurus [degenping, traderaxe, ansem]

[tylerr @bypasspassed]

@wetmarkhor big w, I think its one of those things that will get overlooked for years till they realize
good tek