Predicted

Covering the Business of Prediction Markets

[Polytutor @polytutor]

For traders, the fee split matters more than the total. If parlays earn that much, the exchange has every reason to push combos, where the fee hides inside the price. Before buying a parlay, compare its price with the product of the single-leg prices.

[Predicted @byPredicted]

https://t.co/9dawoox1qI

[Predicted @byPredicted]

Prediction-market exchanges charged ~$1.40B in trading fees in Q3.

Kalshi alone took $1.01B, or 72% of it. Its parlay fees by themselves out-earned Polymarket US.

Read the full State of Prediction Markets Q3 report. Link in comments 👇

[Omar @Ommiii_]

Political prediction markets get written off based on their volume.

Politics was 0.4% of all US PM trading in Q3, as per the @byPredicted Q3 report.

But open interest, the money people leave in a market, tells a different story.

Politics went from 17% to 23% of it in one quarter, adding $197M. Only parlays grew more.

These are long-dated markets, and they build slowly. Volume alone doesn't show it.

[Predicted @byPredicted]

Prediction markets recorded a 75% QoQ increase in notional volume in Q3 2026.

[Predicted @byPredicted]

The most comprehensive Prediction Markets Report ever is free to download. https://t.co/SdannXlwyI

[American Spend @americanspend]

@byPredicted��s Q3 report on prediction markets, using our data:

[Derek Brown @derekbrown]

Proud that @americanspend data is behind some of the great insights in the newly published report on prediction markets from @byPredicted.

It's a fascinating look at an emerging industry using our model of the American economy.

[Predicted @byPredicted]

@MickBransfield Very kind, thanks Mick!

[Sam Schwartz @samschwartz71]

The PM Pulse 085

• @RobinhoodApp 𝗮𝗻𝗱 @Polymarket 𝗨𝗦 𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗶
• 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗶 𝗳𝗶𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀𝘁 @Novig
• @Polymarket 𝗨𝗦 𝗮𝗻𝗱 @cryptocom’𝘀 @OG_com 𝘀𝘂𝗲 𝗔𝗿𝗸𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗮𝘀
• @coinbase, @Kalshi, @Payward, @DRWTrading, @jumptrading 𝗮𝗻𝗱 @paradigm 𝗮𝘀𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 @CFTC 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗽𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲
• @SenWarren 𝗽𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗮
• 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 $𝟯𝟬𝟴,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗼𝗻 @Kalshi 𝘀𝘂𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀
• @Polymarket 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝗱𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴
• @Novig 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 “𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗲𝗳 𝗙𝗮𝗻 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗿”
• @river_markets 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗮 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝘁
• @jpmorgan, @UBS 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗲𝗹 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 @DraftKings
• @Cboe 𝗹𝗶𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗶-𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
• @Underdog 𝘀𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗶𝘁’𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲-𝗯𝘆-𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀
• @byPredicted 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗤𝟯 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁���� 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁

[Mick Bransfield @MickBransfield]

I assume "most comprehensive PM report ever" was just hype, but no, this actually is the best *public* snapshot of what's happening in the space right now.

[rosie @therosieum]

if you only read one prediction markets report this quarter, make it this one

sick work by @Ommiii_

[mark @kramnotmark]

major legacy media companies will start launching proprietary prediction markets starting before 2030

[Simon Taylor @sytaylor]

Absolute banger of a free report for all things prediction markets 👇

[Omar @Ommiii_]

NEW: Our @bypredicted Q3 2026 State of Prediction Markets report is out.

With more data than ever.

More than half of Kalshi's card deposits now come from states where sports betting is illegal.

A $194.1B quarter, the biggest ever. 🧵

https://t.co/y5WRrqfigk

[Tom Curry @imtomcurry]

The youth love PMs

Not sure if this is good or bad?

[Predicted @byPredicted]

The most comprehensive Prediction Markets Report ever is free to download. https://t.co/SdannXlwyI

[Predicted @byPredicted]

@KoschigRobert @Kalshi @SPDJIndices 🤝

[Robert Koschig @KoschigRobert]

Think about ETFs for prediction markets!

CT is sleeping on partnerships like @Kalshi × @SPDJIndices.

H/t @byPredicted. More on the fast growth in Prediction markets, TradFi partnerships and overlooked trends in our revenue report: https://t.co/aZosspr3RX

[Robert Koschig @KoschigRobert]

one of the best overviews on prediction markets I've seen lately (@byPredicted ): https://t.co/HatDAHuOGg

[Predicted @byPredicted]

Volumes and open interest across onchain prediction market venues

[Predicted @byPredicted]

Volumes and open interests across US prediction market venues