Polytutor

Open-source Polymarket research & engineering.

Strategies · CLOB · Backtesting · Execution · Market Making · Risk

Learn. Build. Test. Improve.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

PolyTutor AI Labs: we build open-source Polymarket & prediction-market trading bots, market makers and quant tools. Smart trading. Real edge. GitHub: https://t.co/O3PtRWrjTa Need a custom bot? DM us.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

The tiering is the real story: under $10K of monthly taker volume you pay the top rate, so small manual traders carry the increase while high-volume bots barely notice. Backtest with the fee tier you'll actually be in.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Polymarket's fees are now 36% higher than Kalshi's.

True for some traders but the bigger story is where prediction markets are heading.

Starting November 6, @Polymarket US introduced volume-based taker fees.

For contracts priced at 50¢:

• Under $10K in 30-day taker volume: 4.75%
• $10K–$50K: 4.25%
• $50K–$250K: 3.75%
• $250K+: 3.475%

@Kalshi's standard rate is 3.50%.

So yes, smaller traders now face roughly 36% higher taker fees on Polymarket US. But high-volume traders pay nearly the same rate as Kalshi, potentially less after rebates. New accounts also receive a seven-day introductory rate.

The real significance goes beyond pricing.

1. From user acquisition to monetization.

Prediction markets are moving beyond the growth-at-all-costs phase. Sustainable revenue, liquidity, and execution quality are becoming increasingly important.

2. From attracting users to retaining valuable trading volume.

Tiered pricing rewards active traders and professional liquidity providers. That can strengthen market depth, but it also risks making participation more expensive for retail users.

3. Lower fees don't necessarily mean better execution.

On 100 contracts priced at 50¢, the difference in taker fees is only about $0.63.

A 1¢ improvement in execution price saves $1 on the same position, more than enough to offset that difference.

Spreads, order-book depth, slippage, rebates, and settlement rules can matter more than headline fees.

Our longer-term view: Prediction markets are evolving from attention-driven platforms into serious financial market infrastructure.

The winners won't necessarily be the platforms with the lowest advertised fees or the largest volumes.

They'll be the ones delivering the best combination of liquidity, execution quality, transparent pricing, and reliable settlement.

And as the industry matures, independent cross-platform comparison will become increasingly valuable.

The future isn't just about finding the best odds. It's about finding the best odds after all costs are accounted for. @mansourtarek_ @shayne_coplan

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Kalshi

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Four picks and still in it is the hardest case for in-play bots: each turnover reprices the book in seconds, and orders resting from before the play get hit first. Pull quotes on every play, not when your feed catches up.

[Polymarket Sports @PolymarketSport]

🚨Caleb Williams has thrown FOUR interceptions vs Tampa Bay

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Same 72% on both venues, but 3.2M contracts on Kalshi vs $570K on Polymarket. Matching prices doesn't mean matching depth: size into the thinner book and you move it, so the quote you see isn't the one you'd get.

[Troxler @troxlerio]

CHI's spread moved from -6.5 to -6 since Oct 27. Kalshi has CHI at 72%, Polymarket 72%. 24h volume: 3.2M contracts on Kalshi, $570K on Polymarket. Kalshi, Polymarket and 7 US books: https://t.co/LDcSweXW5m Market prices only. Not a recommendation. Powered by Kalshi Research.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Policy headlines like this move markets in the first minutes, before anyone reads what would count. Check whether the contract needs a signed bill, a chamber vote, or just an announced deal. Those resolve very differently.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Trump reveals he’s willing to work with Democrats on an immigration deal that could allow longtime undocumented workers to remain in the U.S.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@DataBasedBets Worth adding the maker side: Kalshi charges makers on some markets and Polymarket US doesn't, so for anyone quoting instead of taking, the math can flip. Taker-only bettors under the top tiers feel it most. Happy to compare notes on fee-aware sizing, DM me if you want.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@AdaTracks0x 0.9¢ per dollar over 40K markets is the profile of a market maker, not a forecaster. Copying it doesn't work: the edge is spread capture and queue position, and a copier crosses the spread that wallet was earning.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@gameofskillgg Nice tracking. Worth logging both venues' quotes with timestamps and top-of-book size: on a 61¢ line, a 2¢ cross-venue gap is often one stale side, and it tends to close as tip-off nears. Happy to compare notes on sports price tooling, DM me if you want.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@PolymarketSport A 19-year-old winning is exactly why golf outright books are so wide. Before trading tournament markets, check how the contract handles playoffs and dead heats on top-N finishes, since a tie can cut a winning ticket's payout.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@CSP_Trading Chalk slates are brutal for sports MMs: when favorites keep winning, your fills land on the losing side, all correlated on one night. A per-slate net exposure cap, not just per-game limits, is what usually saves the weekend. Happy to compare notes, DM me if you want.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

October CPI drops Tue Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET (BLS). If your bot quotes Kalshi or Polymarket CPI brackets: pull or widen resting orders before 8:30, and check whether the contract settles on headline or core, MoM or YoY, and how it rounds. Spec mix-ups are a classic print-day loss.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Round 5, 25/39: CLCBM. Adjust Chainlink by Coinbase's last ~2s move, see which side of the price-to-beat the estimate lands on, buy it and hold to settlement. Live-ops tell it's dead: by the time the estimate flips, the ask already has. Research only.
https://t.co/w4yTeQ7Adh

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Later context: PolyAlertHub reports the wallet behind this $421K Chargers bet still ended as Polymarket's top earner on the day, because its Green Bay position paid. Judge a whale by the whole book, not one ticket.

[Kraken @KrakenWhale]

🏈 A whale bet $421K that the Chargers beat the Texans to win $1.25M on @Polymarket
https://t.co/TDEuO5PX2D

[Polytutor @polytutor]

A 14-point gap to soft books is usually stale lines or news, not free money. Check sharp books first: soft books lag injury news the most, and if the sharp price agrees with Kalshi, the edge is on the other side.

[SportsBookISH @sportsbookish]

NO Houston at 24¢ vs the book consensus implying ~40% — 14.6pp edge. Kalshi pricing Houston at 74.5% ML while soft books sit near 60%. https://t.co/Xnjn8iezFv

[Polytutor @polytutor]

These are nomination odds, not winner odds, so several names can sit above 90% at once and the list won't sum to 100%. Quick check before trading award markets: is it nominated, wins, or performs, and which official list settles it?

[Kalshi Music @Kalshi_Music]

Current odds for Grammy nominees for Best New Artist:

- Ella Langley: 98%
- Slayyyter: 91%
- Don Toliver: 79%

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Nice breakdown. One caveat on the 50¢ copy: it only pays if it's Lowden or nobody, so O'Connor or Turner is a total loss. You get a cheaper entry than the whale, not his hedge. Happy to compare notes on wallet-tracking bots, DM me if you want.

[Cool Dog @cool_dog0]

ONE WALLET HOLDS 50% OF THE "JACK LOWDEN = NEXT BOND" SHARES

he put 20.7K$ on Jack Lowden at 51c
and 7.4K$ on 'nobody announced' at 26c

> bucket: 51c + 26c = 77c, weighted toward Jack
> Jack announced before end of the year: +12k$
> nobody announced: he's flat
> he holds 50% of all Jack shares

copyting it now costs 42c (Jack) + 8c (no announce) = 50c
buy equal shares of both -> 2x upside on either outcome
thats what justifies half-blind copytrading one wallet

the other fresh wallets:
> Jack: 7 wallets, 5K shares
> Josh O'Connor (next most likely): 7 wallets, 5K shares
> Turner: 9 wallets, 4k shares
> Pattinson: 0

doesnt look like a bundle either of it
just one wallet bought hard - thats the most intesting thing

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Statement headlines like this usually spike the related markets on the first post, then partly fade once people read the actual wording. If you automate around them, key on the resolution source named in the rules, not on the first tweet.

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Trump declares Israel will have to reimburse the U.S. for “any and all costs” of the conflict with Iran.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@Predicat_ Good list. For prediction markets the test for any of these is the same: does it still help after fees and realistic fills on a thin book? Most chart models learned on liquid venues, and a binary with a 1¢ tick and a hard settlement time behaves very differently.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@alphaspy007 Useful stat. Would be even more useful split by time to resolution, since thin long-dated politics books probably drag down Polymarket's $1k fill rate while sports and short-dated markets look much closer between the two venues.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

@Millon_Sancet Mention markets are where interview context matters most. At 5¢ the market assumed the topic wouldn't come up, but a host who covers World Liberty makes it close to certain. Also worth checking whether the rules count only Trump's own words or the interviewer's too.

[Polytutor @polytutor]

Right call holding. With parlays the "same" combo often isn't the same contract: check how each venue treats a void or postponed leg, since one may void the whole thing while the other just drops the leg. That alone can explain a gap. Happy to compare notes on cross-venue matching, DM me if you want.