Aim Predict

Explore the world's prediction markets.
All events, platforms, rankings, and trading insights in one place.
Prediction market wealth begins right here.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

🚀 Introducing Burst — a new way to discover what's moving prediction markets.

The biggest edge in prediction markets isn't just knowing the outcome, it's spotting what matters first.

Today we're launching Burst, a new feature on AIMPredict.

Burst continuously aggregates the world's leading prediction markets, surfaces the biggest movers in the last 24 hours, and pairs them with the most relevant trending conversations on X, so you can instantly understand:

⚡ What markets are moving the fastest
📈 Why probabilities are changing
🌍 Which platforms reacted first
💬 What the community is saying

No more jumping between prediction markets, X, and news sites.

Everything you need to discover, monitor, and analyze emerging events is in one place.

👉 https://t.co/fxBxOvVuho

This is just Version 1, and we're only getting started.

If you're a @Polymarket , @Kalshi , or PredictIt user, we'd love your feedback:

• What data would you like to see?
• What features would make Burst indispensable?
• What should we improve next?

Every suggestion helps us build a better home for prediction market discovery.

Come try it out and tell us what you think! 🚀

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #AI #Forecasting #FinTech #Crypto #News #OpenData #AIMPredict

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Great point.
Fill probability at the displayed price is often the real hidden cost. In thin books, a 1¢ better quote can easily turn into a zero fill, which completely changes the economics of the trade.

Have you seen consistent differences in fill rates between @Polymarket and @Kalshi at similar price levels in your copytrading replays?

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Polymarket's fees are now 36% higher than Kalshi's.

True for some traders but the bigger story is where prediction markets are heading.

Starting November 6, @Polymarket US introduced volume-based taker fees.

For contracts priced at 50¢:

• Under $10K in 30-day taker volume: 4.75%
• $10K–$50K: 4.25%
• $50K–$250K: 3.75%
• $250K+: 3.475%

@Kalshi's standard rate is 3.50%.

So yes, smaller traders now face roughly 36% higher taker fees on Polymarket US. But high-volume traders pay nearly the same rate as Kalshi, potentially less after rebates. New accounts also receive a seven-day introductory rate.

The real significance goes beyond pricing.

1. From user acquisition to monetization.

Prediction markets are moving beyond the growth-at-all-costs phase. Sustainable revenue, liquidity, and execution quality are becoming increasingly important.

2. From attracting users to retaining valuable trading volume.

Tiered pricing rewards active traders and professional liquidity providers. That can strengthen market depth, but it also risks making participation more expensive for retail users.

3. Lower fees don't necessarily mean better execution.

On 100 contracts priced at 50¢, the difference in taker fees is only about $0.63.

A 1¢ improvement in execution price saves $1 on the same position, more than enough to offset that difference.

Spreads, order-book depth, slippage, rebates, and settlement rules can matter more than headline fees.

Our longer-term view: Prediction markets are evolving from attention-driven platforms into serious financial market infrastructure.

The winners won't necessarily be the platforms with the lowest advertised fees or the largest volumes.

They'll be the ones delivering the best combination of liquidity, execution quality, transparent pricing, and reliable settlement.

And as the industry matures, independent cross-platform comparison will become increasingly valuable.

The future isn't just about finding the best odds. It's about finding the best odds after all costs are accounted for. @mansourtarek_ @shayne_coplan

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Kalshi

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Polymarket's fees are now 36% higher than on Kalshi.

2 day ago Polymarket US replaced its 3.475% standard taker fee with a tiers based system.

You now need >$250k taker volume over the last 30 days achieve the same 3.475% rate.

Under that threshold, you will now pay a lot more.

Here’s what you now pay in for a buy at 50c based on tier:

- Under $10K -> 4.75%
- $10K to under $50K -> 4.25%
- $50K to under $250K -> 3.75%
- >$250K -> 3.475%

Kalshi’s standard rate on the same trade is 3.50%.

To think that Polymarket used to have 0 fees less than a year ago, and that Kalshi was considered the expensive platform.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

This Nvidia situation adds a layer of uncertainty, especially with the board investigation and the timing ahead of earnings.

That said, the bigger market driver this week is still the inflation data. With markets already pricing ~79% odds of a December hike, a hotter-than-expected CPI or PPI could push yields higher and reignite the selloff.

The bond market being closed on Wednesday may also make any move more volatile.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Kalshi Hero can’t resist beauty.
With everyone watching, it’s genuinely not easy for @JensenHuang to just date like a normal person. 🥲

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@AshCrypto Hope a real deal actually gets done this time.

Midterms being over removes the political incentive to escalate, but markets have been burned by “deal soon” headlines before.

If we get even a temporary ceasefire + some form of agreement, risk assets should finally catch a bid.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@_FORAB 最终，还是老黄扛下了所有…… 👀 @JensenHuang

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Kalshi This blame is a bit unfair!
Facing the various sophisticated tactics of the North Korean state-level hacking team, it’s really hard to fully prevent. @binance

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Strategy was still sitting on over $10B in unrealized gains last month.

Now with 849k bitcoin:native at an average cost of ~$75,450, the position is roughly $1B underwater at current prices.

Weekly close just went below the 50-week MA, if it doesn’t reclaim quickly, the pressure on highly leveraged holders like this gets a lot heavier.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@heyibinance Binance really is one step ahead!
Being able to price $NVDA perps and react while US markets are closed is a huge edge, plus #1 in both volume and open interest.
Stop just watching the news, trade it on Binance.
Big fan! 💪

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@BullTheoryio This takes serious guts.
From +$10B unrealized last month to –$1B now
one month’s bitcoin:native move just wiped out a fortune on paper.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@cz_binance This is Binance’s edge.
Traditional markets close on weekends, but Binance stock perps price in real time 24/7.
When news hits over the weekend, many people have already traded it on Binance.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Polymarket The record is real, but a 10 km lab demo at 3.2 Pb/s is still a long way from your home broadband.
Let’s get the storage to keep up first.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@EthYfii @Polymarket Fees rising does push out regular users.

That said, Jupiter Predict adds a 2% builder fee on @Polymarket markets, so it’s not always cheaper.

The Solana integration and no-fee options (sports/Forecast) are nicer for users already in the ecosystem though.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

It's a real shift.
Platforms are now pushing higher costs onto smaller traders while giving high-volume users rates close to Kalshi’s.

Community-run markets have the flexibility to design fee splits that actually match what their crowd expects whether that’s more retail-friendly rates, sharing revenue with active participants, or prioritizing market makers.

The advantage is being able to customize instead of following a one-size-fits-all model.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@tebrabbit @Polymarket Totally agree, most people only notice the fee after the trade is done.

Curious if what you’re building at @magicmarkets is specifically targeting this?

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Yeah, Small traders will probably feel it the most and some might shift volume to @Kalshi or other platforms in the short term.

High-volume accounts barely notice the change (especially with rebates), so the real test is whether Polymarket can keep liquidity deep enough that the fee difference doesn’t matter as much as spreads and execution.

Curious to see if this concentrates activity among bigger players or opens the door for a lower-fee competitor.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

Yeah, tiered fees like this mostly hit the small traders while the high-volume players skate (and often get rebates).

The dollar difference on a single small trade isn’t huge, but it adds up if you’re a retail user placing frequent smaller bets.

Makes sense they’re moving toward monetization, but the current structure clearly prioritizes retaining whales over keeping casual users comfortable.

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Aaronbennett Bro the real pattern is just “successful guys date hot, smart Asian women.” 😂

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Kalshi CEO’s private life is more exciting than any earnings report , just painted a massive red candle on the chart. 📉

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Polymarket The war isn't even over, and the bills are already being split? @grok

So much for being allies!
Yesterday it was friendship, today it's time to split the bill! 😂

[Aim Predict @aim_predict]

@Polymarket Jensen Huang is having a rough time, he just wanted to keep a romance low-key, but way too many eyes are on him. 👀 @JensenHuang