Quant Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.
Quant @ZEITFinance

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

It's now clear to all but a few lunatics that memecoins are done

Prediction markets have taken their place in the heart of degens, just like memecoins took NFT's

Yet every time you point this out, a demented memecoin fanatic screeches out in reply :

"But brother ! I have seen people make x1000 in a day on memecoins, Prediction Markets are child's play ! "

And yes :
- he's probably talking about a fake screenshot he saw on his timeline
- It was made on the back of a 99.6% loss rate retail audience that has since deserted the market

But no matter how unhygienic and mentally ill he is. He still has some sort of a point.

Facts are, although extremely rare, these things do happen and there is a certain kind of degen audience that lives only for it.

So how do we reach them ?

1) Problem

The upside on a single market is fundamentally capped, in theory at 1000x, in reality, at much less.

The cheapest you can buy a share on Polymarket is in theory $0.001 (0.1c), if they go to the max of $1 then it's a 1000x

But even now you will have an extremely hard time finding a counter party that wants to buy the opposite side at $0.999.

When trading fees are introduced it will make even less sense for traders to buy shares at $0.999 since fees will eat all their profit

So introducing even smaller denominations wont increase the multiple potential

2) Solution

Derivatives. We need Derivatives.

But we can't have perps on single markets with capped upside and an expiry date ( They are called Perpetuals for a reason)

That's why we created Perpetual Prediction Vaults at @ZEITFinance, you invest not in a market but in a fund that constantly reinvest the proceeds in new markets.

The vault can be operated :
- By a good trader
- According to predetermined strategy
- By a bot or statistical model

It doesn't really matter.
What matters most is that we have transformed the single market outcome into a continuous price series.

Now we can tokenize it.

Which means we can plug it in all the existing DeFi eco, including perps.

This way :
> there is no limit to how much you can make.
> the memecoin schizo can shut up
> the degen can chase his 10000x

As you see we worked very hard to kill the memecoin reply schizo and every minute of it was worth it

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@k0k1eth Polymarket doesn't make more money when you lost, they take fees on tradea

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@nic_carter le nicolas du contrat social ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Worse0x bad rules yeah, just not the worst that happened

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@_helmass @ZEITFinance @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketDevs @HyperliquidX

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@DanDeFiEd @ZEITFinance @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketDevs @HyperliquidX

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@iammrranjan Poor guy, 35k is a lot of money, wish him all the best

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Polymarket may be in trouble this time ⚠️

Sites are popping up threatening Polymarket them with class action lawsuits over the Microstrategy scandal

Complete with media kits, hashtags, read made tweet templates ...

This feel very coordinated and professional.

Maybe just some very determined trader, maybe some lawfirm hoping to lead a case against @Polymarket, maybe some competitor trying to exploit the breach.

In any case, this time it seems to be attracting much more attention than previous controversial resolution ("Russia x Ukraine ceasefire", "Zelensky's suit ...")

I didn't expect that one to blow because it is far from the worse of it's kind.

It's ultimately just a case of UMA following a precedent that wasn't made clear to most traders and Polymarket siding with them in the dispute.

Siding with YES would have also rugged a ton of traders who reasonably thought that precedent would be followed.

But maybe it's precisely because it's such a common case that traders are fed up.
Polymarket has been writing better rules lately, but this has not been evenly distributed amongts all markets

Ultimately the case will lead nowhere, Polymarket will come out fine, but they will need to take the right lessons from it.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

UMA scammed users again for +$20M ⚠️

- MicroStrategy sends BTC to Kraken on may 26th.

- They announced it officially that they sold BTC in May, while the market is *still open*.

- The "Microstrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31st" resolved to NO (???)

Their argument was that the sale was officially announced on June 1st.

Yet the rules don't mention anywhere that confirmation must come before cutoff date.

All the rules says is :

"This market will resolve to YES if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin on the date specified"

"The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used"

Usually these kind of markets have rules mentioning a cut off date for retroactive confirmation, from a day to a week.

In the absence of such rules it is entirely reasonable for traders to expect that a market that is STILL OPEN can go either way.

If it wasn't possible to resolve to market to YES after may 31st, then why didn't it close immediately at midnight ??

It's already a mistake to let users trade a market that is already resolved but it is even worse when nothing in the rules make it clear it's the case.

The actual reason UMA pushed for NO is bad precedent, i'll explain below👇

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@0xSounds agree

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

https://t.co/hkSrq38gc5

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Prediction Vaults are not only for traders, but for bots too

If you have a winning, scalable strategy, wrap it into an algorithmic Vault and let others provide the capital for it.

To demonstrate this concept, we have launched our own algorithmic vault.

The Autonomous Finance Arbitrage vault.

It exploit NegRisk arbitrage opportunities to generate completely risk free yield.

So not only do you get a nice free APY but you are also farming riskless free volume for the airdrop, which will be redistributed to vault shareholders when it comes.

If you want to invest, the link is bellow 👇

[ZEIT @ZEITFinance]

🚨 OUT OF PRIVATE BETA 🚨

Today, we are thrilled to officially launch ZEIT Finance Tokenized Vaults on top of Prediction Markets.

Reality is now an asset class.

Prediction Markets are the fastest, most precise representation of reality.

We believe that the "assetization of reality" is the next culture-defining tool in the Web3 space. If you have a conviction, you can now tokenize it.

🧵👇

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@ZEITFinance @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketDevs @HyperliquidX What people are sleeping on is that it is a way to transfer open interest that idly sits on Polymarket books - into the DeFi wild.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@theneetguy where are you seeing a badge ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@LiquidData that's amazing. Where can i follow the project ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@th33m3rald3dg3 it should have been YES but the rules but NO by precedent, the real winning move was to write clearer rules to begin with

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Cesar47528113 ideally yeah, but sometimes you have unforeseen edge cases.

But in this case the edge case for foreseen and they should have written clearer rules

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@jialol1 i'm secretly enjoying it very much as well

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@iammrranjan damn i didn't have $35k to gamble when i was an university student

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@polybacktest i don't think this even goes to court

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@theneetguy "go check reddit"
lol, lmao even

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@LiquidData yes exactly ! that's why they deserve the blame, the mistake was made even before we got the resolution

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@LiquidData Well yeah, we call that a bad precedent. I agreed that they should have corrected it IN THE RULES to begin with. But once it happened there were no good solutions