Quant Chad

Crunching numbers in prediction markets. Betting against the herd.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Random501901 @Novig @ProphetX Yeah but combos are just a combination of base markets so the more of those they ban, the less combo

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

The CFTC is cracking down on Sports prediction markets.

It just banned exchanges from proposing new type of sports contracts.

Looks like regulator are tying to slowly choke out sports markets

The CFTC contacted @Novig and @ProphetX and ordered them to take down the following markets :

- Who scores the 1st points in a basketball game?
- Will any NFL end with a final score never seen before?
- Will an MLB game produce a never-before-seen score?
- Who will score the 1st point in a Football game?

They argue that these categories are prone to manipulaton.

If you remember it's the same argument that they used to force Kalshi to ban Sports mention markets

Regulations are dropping at an increasing rate :

- July: CFTC forces Kalshi to ban bets on sport mention.
- September: The CFTC send a warning about "manipulation risks" in mention markets in general
- October (Now): The CFTC bans first goal and scorigami markets
---- next ----
- The CFTC bans mention markets ?
- The CFTC drops sports market entirely (reclassied as gambling) ?

Is the Trump admin starting to turn against prediction markets ? Or is the CFTC just trying to hedge their bets for when Democrats come to power ?

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@coleodds Yeah exactly they cherry pick the trade they show you

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io Some are naive

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

NEW STUDY : Polymarket KOLs are bad traders and you will lose money if you follow them.

We all knew it, but it's nice to finally have proof.

A study by Prediction Market Census tracked 307 Polymarket influencers, their wallets and the call they made on social media.

Here's what they discovered 👇

1. Their calls are trash.

Researchers matched 162 public KOL trading calls to their earlier trades.

On those exact same bets:

- avg. KOL return: +12.3%
- avg. Follower entering when posted: −2.4%

If you see a KOL posting shilling a trade opportunity, it's already too late and they are using you as exit liquidity.

1. KOLs are WORST traders than average.

> 57.5% of KOL accounts lost money trading.
> 50.5% of non-KOL accounts with similar trading volumes lose money.

So remember. No competent trader is going to give you free alpha.

If they have alpha, they will keep it to themselves.

If they pretend to have alpha, they are farming you for refferal revenue.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@shtanga0x i'm not sure the support from investor is strong but it's very bad PR to fire the CEO

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@willo2_Poly The airdrop curse is real

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@trylimitless @Polymarket Now that they are down you strike, but when they were at the top you kept glazing

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@AMK_Mapping_ The bulls in shamble

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@polyguana Election markets like these are mirrored on every platform so it's the best type of market to trade through a smart aggregator like Polyguana

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@mini_boss_io @Novig @ProphetX Wise business move but I wish they had focused more on international. I like crypto rails more

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Payne_1337 @Polymarket S-tier meme game, my brother

[Polyguana @polyguana]

Big elections ahead: Israel, BC, Bulgaria, Serbia, and the midterms.

Track the best odds and earn passive yield on your account using Polyguana.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@betmoardotfun There is no free money anywhere

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@laki_0x Why mix finasreride and dutasteride ? They are litteraly the same drug in different dose

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@simongerman600 That's what happens when you don't have infinity migroids

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

🚨 Polymarket just fired it's its CMO @MatthewModabber after he got caught paying influencer to promote FAKE TRADES !

Shayne Coplan tried protect Modabber but the board overruled him.

Moddaber organized an influencer promotional campaign using fake bets and undisclosed ads to promote the site.

WSJ investigated 1,105 promotional videos from the campaign.

It found:

- $1.9M in simulated bets presented as real.
- 118 videos showing nearly $900K in fake winnings.
- Bets that would actually have lost over $166K being shown as winning

Moddaber tried to pretend that he had nothing to do with it and the influencers acted on their own

But the investigation revealed he personnaly organized it all.

- > $350K in payments to fraudulent influencer came from Modabber's personal PayPal account.

- anorher $2.5M was sent from his account to 800+ suspected participants of the campaing.

- he had Polymarket build a fake copy of its own website to stage the trades

This is a BIG blow for Shayne !

Moddaber was his childhood friend and last solid ally at polymarket.

Now that Moddaber has been pushed out he's truly alone.

And it comes after he just got caught by investors using the company's money to fly private jets and cover personnal expenses.

His position has never been weaker.

It's clear that investors have lost confidence in him.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@zerqfer It's so retarded

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

Kalshi just got scammed by a fake Indian Chief !

They wanted to sign a deal with a tribe to launch a Kalshi branded prediction market.

but the chief they signed with was an IMPOSTOR.

Kalshi is trying to gain the support of Native American by bribing they with juicy partnerships.

They thought they had struck a deal with Wilson Yargee, Chief of the Quassarte tribe.

Except Wilson Yargee was not the real chief.

the next the actual Chief of the Quassarte denounced the deal saying :

- His leadership NEVER approved the deal.
- He only discovered it through a CNN report.
- The opposing faction had no authority to sign on behalf of the tribe.

Turns out the Alabama-Quassarte tribe has 2 rival chiefs fighting for power. Samuel Marshall Jr. (legit) and Wilson Yargee (impostor), each with their own supporting factions.

Now the legality of the deal rests on this succession dispute :

> The legitimist faction behind Marshall say the deal is void since Yargee is not the real chief.

> The impostor faction, backed by Kashi, insists the deal is legitimate and that Yargee is the real chief.

Kalshi thought they were smart trying to buy the support of tribes before their supreme court case and now they are stuck solving Tribal succession disputes.

Well deserved.

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Gino_BetOpenly Kalshi is entertaining

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Atlantislq This shit flew under the radar but it's so funny. Tarek getting tied to the totem tonight

[Quant Chad @Autonomous_Chad]

@Quintoccgee Yeah liquidity is aweful on prediction markets