Sarmad

Black Times!

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

#BritishColumbia #Canada #Owl

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

Chilcotin Region, British Columbia
#canon #birders #photography

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Bald Eagle @Canada #Birders

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@neiltyson @joerogan Why I can’t find this episode on Joe Rogan Spotify?

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@kanyewest @joerogan

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

Arthur Hayes Essay - Ski Cut
[April 2025]

[Serena🔥 @SerenaSeek]

Breaking down Arthur's @CryptoHayes new essay - Ski Cut - a reflection on what happened in the past 3 weeks and what will likely happen next.

1/
🇺🇸Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” wasn’t just about tariffs — it was a ski-cut on the steep slope of global markets.
A maximalist tariff policy triggered a volatility avalanche, measured by the MOVE Index hitting 172.

2/
🏔️ Trump’s tariff shock was intentionally extreme — a “persistent weak layer” in avalanche terms.
Markets puked. Stocks dropped, MOVE surged, and the crypto market cratered.
But within days, Team Trump moderated:
→ 90-day pause for all but China
→ Dovish signals from the Fed and Treasury

3/
📉 The shock and pivot combo sent a clear message:
→ Volatility this high is unacceptable
→ They will intervene
→ Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K amid the chaos
The first “policy panic pivot” of 2025 had begun.

4/
💡 The Treasury’s secret weapon?
Buybacks
Not QE, but powerful:
→ Issue new debt
→ Repurchase old off-the-run bonds
→ Boost prices
→ Narrow basis
→ Free up capital for RV funds to lever back in

5/
This reflexive cycle:
🔁 Buybacks → lower volatility → lower margin needs → more leverage → stabilize bond market
= soft form of easing, executed by Treasury instead of Fed
💰 Add liquidity without needing Powell.

6/
🎯 Why it matters:
→ RV funds are now the marginal buyer of Treasuries post-2022 (after Russia sanctions spooked sovereigns).
→ Without their leverage, Treasury auctions would demand much higher yields.

7/
📊 Historical echo:
In 3Q2022, Yellen’s bill-heavy issuance unlocked $2.5T in liquidity from RRP → Bitcoin rallied 6x.
In 2Q2025, Bessent is doing the same via buybacks → Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K.

8/
💥 The Macro Playbook Now:
• Treasury needs RV funds to max leverage
• Fed quietly eases (e.g. slowing QT)
• Treasury expands buybacks
→ All add dollar liquidity
→ Bitcoin is the net beneficiary

9/
🟡 Gold performs in chaos
🟠 Bitcoin performs after policy response
They now decouple from tech stocks — digital & physical anti-establishment assets.

10/
🧠 Market takeaway:
When Trump shouts tariffs, volatility spikes.
When volatility spikes, Treasury & Fed respond.
When they respond, liquidity rises.
And Bitcoin levitates.

11/
📈 Once BTC breaks $110K, we enter AltSzn.
Only tokens with real yield + cashflow will survive the next wave.
That’s where the rotation will go.
Our bags are packed.

12/
Final thought:
Markets are waking up to this:
→ The Treasury, not the Fed, is now the main liquidity provider
→ Policy panic is the new bull catalyst
→ Bitcoin is the new market signal

Original article🔗
https://t.co/CaBxcJxXtA

[Serena🔥 @SerenaSeek]

Breaking down Arthur's @CryptoHayes new essay - Ski Cut - a reflection on what happened in the past 3 weeks and what will likely happen next.

1/
🇺🇸Trump’s April 2nd “Liberation Day” wasn’t just about tariffs — it was a ski-cut on the steep slope of global markets.
A maximalist tariff policy triggered a volatility avalanche, measured by the MOVE Index hitting 172.

2/
🏔️ Trump’s tariff shock was intentionally extreme — a “persistent weak layer” in avalanche terms.
Markets puked. Stocks dropped, MOVE surged, and the crypto market cratered.
But within days, Team Trump moderated:
→ 90-day pause for all but China
→ Dovish signals from the Fed and Treasury

3/
📉 The shock and pivot combo sent a clear message:
→ Volatility this high is unacceptable
→ They will intervene
→ Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K amid the chaos
The first “policy panic pivot” of 2025 had begun.

4/
💡 The Treasury’s secret weapon?
Buybacks
Not QE, but powerful:
→ Issue new debt
→ Repurchase old off-the-run bonds
→ Boost prices
→ Narrow basis
→ Free up capital for RV funds to lever back in

5/
This reflexive cycle:
🔁 Buybacks → lower volatility → lower margin needs → more leverage → stabilize bond market
= soft form of easing, executed by Treasury instead of Fed
💰 Add liquidity without needing Powell.

6/
🎯 Why it matters:
→ RV funds are now the marginal buyer of Treasuries post-2022 (after Russia sanctions spooked sovereigns).
→ Without their leverage, Treasury auctions would demand much higher yields.

7/
📊 Historical echo:
In 3Q2022, Yellen’s bill-heavy issuance unlocked $2.5T in liquidity from RRP → Bitcoin rallied 6x.
In 2Q2025, Bessent is doing the same via buybacks → Bitcoin bottomed at $74.5K.

8/
💥 The Macro Playbook Now:
• Treasury needs RV funds to max leverage
• Fed quietly eases (e.g. slowing QT)
• Treasury expands buybacks
→ All add dollar liquidity
→ Bitcoin is the net beneficiary

9/
🟡 Gold performs in chaos
🟠 Bitcoin performs after policy response
They now decouple from tech stocks — digital & physical anti-establishment assets.

10/
🧠 Market takeaway:
When Trump shouts tariffs, volatility spikes.
When volatility spikes, Treasury & Fed respond.
When they respond, liquidity rises.
And Bitcoin levitates.

11/
📈 Once BTC breaks $110K, we enter AltSzn.
Only tokens with real yield + cashflow will survive the next wave.
That’s where the rotation will go.
Our bags are packed.

12/
Final thought:
Markets are waking up to this:
→ The Treasury, not the Fed, is now the main liquidity provider
→ Policy panic is the new bull catalyst
→ Bitcoin is the new market signal

Original article🔗
https://t.co/CaBxcJxXtA

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@bitgetglobal The Bitget should introduce a live notification banner or icon in future trading page for coins which are going to be delisted. My future leveraged position was recently liquidated when JellyJellyUSDT coin was delisted.

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@bitgetglobal The Bitget should introduce a live notification banner or icon in future trading page for coins which are going to be delisted. My future leveraged position was recently liquidated when JellyJellyUSDT coin was delisted.

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@bitgetglobal ✋

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@bitgetglobal ✋

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@MikeZillionaire 👋

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@Alxrtfn Just checking if it works 😀

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@koxyDYOR 5000$

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@koxyDYOR ☝️

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@theionicXBT You too stupid, no one ever knows what’s coming.

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@tall_data Active

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@tall_data ✋

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@Vibesmetax Hi

[Sarmad @bysarmadian]

@ohhanxiety Let’s connect