Craig Garrett

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

CATHIE WOOD’S ARK INVEST BUYS $525 MILLION WORTH OF SPCX SHARES IN MAJOR BET ON THE STOCK

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: SpaceX officially opens at $1,960,000,000,000.00 in market cap.

[cinesthetic. @TheCinesthetic]

TREMORS (1990) is one of those movies that looks effortless until you realize how precisely it’s put together. Every setup pays off, every rule matters, and even the limitations helped shape the Graboids into one of cinema’s great movie monsters.

[Craig Garrett @c_garrett]

The administration really knows how to take the "Cease" out of "Cease Fire".

[Craig Garrett @c_garrett]

@SlopeOfHope IPO of $135, what do we think, it starts trading at $150 and drops from there? Over the next few months falling down to about $15?

[Slope of Hope @SlopeOfHope]

This is the bear market saying "hi" to everyone.

[Dr. Eli David @DrEliDavid]

🚨 Breaking: Iran was just given a 2-day ultimatum to reach a deal.

If they fail to do so in 2 days, the consequences are clear: they will have another 2 weeks. Or 2 months.

[Jamie Bonkiewicz @JamieBonkiewicz]

UPDATE: Iran now has 2–3 days to make a deal or they’ll have 2 weeks to make a deal.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

CNN: TRUMP HAS DECLARED AN IRAN DEAL 'IMMINENT' 37 TIMES, YET NO AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Taiwan’s central bank governor said fund inflows into the stock market will be closely monitored.

[GBX @GBX_Press]

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[Wall Street Memes @wallstmemes]

Billionaire CEO's burning $3k a second in fuel yacht racing after laying off 20% of the company to 'cut back on costs'

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

The math behind a 10x sales valuation.

A stock at 10x sales is asking investors to bet on one specific outcome: that revenue grows fast enough, at margins high enough, for long enough, to make the price look cheap in hindsight.

The math, roughly:

For a 10x sales stock to deliver 10% annual returns over the next decade, while reverting to a normal 3x sales multiple, revenue needs to grow roughly 8-fold. That's ~24% annual growth, every year, for ten consecutive years.

Not impossible. But here's the catch.

McKinsey's "Ten Rules of Growth" study found that only 1 in 8 large companies sustains even 10%+ revenue growth for a full decade. The base rate for sustained 15%+ growth is closer to 1 in 30. The intersection of high growth and high margins is tinier still.

The market is currently pricing roughly half the S&P 500 as if it will be that one in 30.

The base rate is around 3%.

The price assumes more like 50%.

A bubble doesn't have to break. It just has to revert to the base rate.

That's all bubbles ever do.

[Craig Garrett @c_garrett]

@FirstSquawk The US does not have positions in the government called "Ministers". What on Earth is this garbage reporting??

[Craig Garrett @c_garrett]

@FirstSquawk Hardline IRGC members are in charge of Iran right now. Yeah, I'm sure they are close to a deal with Trump. Sure.

[George Noble @gnoble79]

NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE

And your retirement account is secretly holding the bag.

This scheme is literally straight out of the Enron playbook...

In January 2026, a special purpose vehicle called Valor Compute Infrastructure was created with one purpose:

Buy Nvidia's chips so Nvidia could book the sale as revenue.

Valor raised $5.4 billion and purchased over 100,000 of Nvidia's GB200 GPUs.

But $1.9 billion of that money came FROM Nvidia itself.

Nvidia invested $1.9 billion into the shell company, then sold that same shell company $5.4 billion worth of its own chips and booked every dollar as revenue.

It's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies and then she wins the sales contest because Dad was the customer. Except this Girl Scout is a trillion-dollar company and the cookie sale is $5.4 billion.

But it gets MUCH worse:

The remaining $3.5 billion in financing came from Apollo Global Management. Apollo structured the debt, packaged it into securities, and then sold those securities to Athene.

And guess who Athene is? Apollo's OWN insurance subsidiary. The one that sells fixed annuities to American retirees as safe, conservative retirement products.

Follow the chain:

Nvidia funds a shell company with $1.9 billion. The shell company buys $5.4 billion in Nvidia chips. Apollo finances the remaining $3.5 billion. Apollo sells the debt to its own insurance arm. That insurance arm packages it into annuity products and sells them to retirees who think they're buying something safe.

The retirees have no idea that their retirement savings are now backed by 100,000 computer chips sitting in some data center that will be worth pennies on the dollar in three years.

Now look at what's happening inside Athene:

$74.2 billion in US reserves but $217 billion in assets have been shifted to a Bermuda-based captive insurer, outside normal US regulatory oversight.

$103 billion of that portfolio (roughly 35%) is classified as Level 3 assets. That means there is no observable market price.

These assets are valued by internal models, not by actual markets.

And sitting on top of all those unpriced assets? 16.6x leverage.

If you're getting flashbacks to 2008, you should be.

Back then it was mortgages bundled into securities that nobody understood, sold to investors who had no idea what they were holding, rated as safe by agencies that never looked under the hood.

Today it's GPU-backed securities. Computer chips bundled into structured credit instruments, routed through an offshore insurance subsidiary, and sold to you as a retirement product.

The collateral is 100,000 GPUs leased to a single customer through an xAI subsidiary. If xAI stops making lease payments for any reason - financial distress, a pivot in strategy, anything - the entire structure unravels.

And Nvidia releases new architectures every year, so each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. A 5 year lease on technology that's obsolete in 2 years creates a mismatch that should terrify every annuity holder in America.

Every single step in this chain is technically legal. The SPV is legal, the lease is legal, Nvidia's equity stake is legal, the securitization is legal, and the Bermuda transfer is legal.

But legality and legitimacy are not the same thing.

I've seen every trick Wall Street has ever pulled in my 45 years of doing this.

And what I'm looking at right now is a pipeline that takes AI infrastructure risk, launders it through 8 layers of financial engineering, and deposits it in the retirement accounts of Americans who never agreed to fund Elon Musk's data centers.

In 2008 it was mortgage-backed securities.

In 2026 it's GPU-backed securities.

Different asset. Same greed. With the same ending.

[Just a Dude Who Invests @DudeWhoInvests]

Exit liquidity leaving crypto for the SpaceX IPO

[Mike Butler @TraderMikeyB]

The PDT Rule is gone! Learn about all the changes here:

https://t.co/cPZ1Mzg0Ow

[litquidity @litcapital]

Google is raising $80 billion of equity a week before SpaceX is trying to raise $75 billion a few months before Anthropic and OpenAI are trying to raise $100 billion from investors and you’re laughing???

This is a cataclysmic exit liquidity avalanche