Caerus

BTC (day)trader | macro, cycles & market structure

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

https://t.co/qdNUaHZBno

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

This could be explained by the the risk curve theory btw, tells us that quality is bought first and sold last while risk is bought last and sold first.

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

Interesting find:

The first set of charts are dating back to the 2017 $btc cycle.

As you can see, the S&P500 and BTC were correlating (both going up), until BTC topped - highlighted in green.

After that, they "decoupled": BTC kept going down, while the S&P500 actually was trending up and making a new ATH - highlighted in purple.

When the S&P500 finally topped and sold off, BTC followed - highlighted in red.

Subsequently, BTC formed a bottom approximately a week before the S&P did, and they both continued to rally upwards (starting a bull market for BTC) - highlighted in green.

Now, take a look at the second set of charts. The same seems to be happening at this moment: BTC topped in October 2025, which was not led by an S&P selloff. We seem to be in the purple area again: the "decoupling" phase, since the S&P is making new ATHs, while BTC is trending lower.

If the same thing repeats, we could expect an equities selloff, with BTC following, and that joint flush is likely what marks the bottom of this BTC bear market.

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

⌛️...

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

Bear market bottoms don't look like this

$BTC always sweeps the range lows before creating a bottom

Reversals need fuel

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@0xresurekt 🤦‍♂️

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

"But it means that BTC will hesitate a bit but still holding its ground" - This is just due to the fact BTC has a massive market cap compared to Alts, so it's harder to move.

"Alts completely collapse based on that simple hesitation" - They dump because BTC dumps, not because of "hesitation".

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@0xresurekt @Raivcha1337 Incorrect...

Alts just react more strongly, but BTC still leads the way

You've got that mixed up

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

Bear market bottoms don't look like this

$BTC always sweeps the range lows before creating a bottom

Reversals need fuel

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

https://t.co/qdNUaHZBno

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@0xresurekt So you expect this cycle to play out normally (which is what your COPPER/GOLD chart points at) followed by another 4-year cycle?

That would literally be the 4-year cycle repeating

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@0xresurekt That's a lot of coincidences then, lol

Time will tell

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@0xresurekt "So even if COPPER starts ripping now, Altseason won't be before 6 months"

That would actually line up with the 4 year cycle

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@CryptoJelleNL I have written an article about this!

https://t.co/bMYG12u0Dc

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

https://t.co/qdNUaHZBno

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

"Wait for the wisest of all counselors, time."

- Pericles

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

Basing your bias on how many red/green candles $BTC has printed in a row, is shallow reasoning.

" $BTC has never closed seven red months in a row, so next month must be green! "

The candle is just a container of information.

Price exists separately from candles; candles only capture what price has done, based on time.

During, for example, a yearly candle, price can go up for 10 months and still close red.

What price does > what color it closes

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

I honestly don't get why people obsess with #altseasons so much?

The high-timeframe structure on $BTC and alts are largely the same. The only difference is that during a major bull run people collectively rotate their profits into alts

$BTC soars -> people take profit -> they put money into smaller caps because everything goes up -> these alts temporarily outperform $BTC

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is an "alt season"

It's not that special if you think about it

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

I have been taking significantly less $btc trades for the past two weeks

The price action is just... suboptimal

US-Iran tensions are putting pressure on energy markets, and that's probably not resolving anytime soon

I find it hard to sit on my hands, but at the end of the day, protecting your capital is the most important in trading

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

Interested in this? Read more in this article
https://t.co/bMYG12u0Dc

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

https://t.co/qdNUaHZBno

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

So many people say ETF's change the 4-year cycle for $BTC.

That's simply not true!

ETF's flow in when price is already breaking out, and they flow out when price drops.

Same behavior as retail

[Caerus @caerusbtc]

@ThinkingBitmex Zoom out brother