Caffienated Cap

Love hot beverages & high yields

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@ContrarianCurse @x980ux89hx8h @DzambhalaHODL Assure me? They just brought a $25bn deal a couple of months ago? The market expected them to bring another $25bn so it was trading a little wide but they did equity instead? Quite the exaggeration my friend.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@x980ux89hx8h @DzambhalaHODL @ContrarianCurse What? All the hyperscalers including Oracle can issue jumbo deals any day of the week. They’re going where cost of capital is the lowest.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

We are much closer to the Jetson’s than the average person realizes. What a time.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@1000yearhouse Brick, berkey and black leather countertops. My man. Oh yeah nice… soup? Enjoy!

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@ContrarianCurse Used to take me forever to get out of a rabbit hole, now I’m in and out of dozens a day. Great for that nagging itch to complete side quests when doing primary work.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@Nico__Chuan All this time I thought you were in New England… couldn’t be!

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

Why is raw milk twice as much as regular milk? Shouldn’t it be the same or cheaper if it’s right out of the cow?

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

“we live in an interesting new world where execution is quite cheap”

Classic software ideology where you iterate vs hardware that has to work out of the box. But will it manifest in physical world too? Broad fast fashion? Lower prices but much more volume?

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

Seems like software has 3 options at this point: cut staff, increase hardware mix (like ORCL), or sell longer contracts (would require a subsidy to buyer). I don’t know how you convince anyone of the durability of cash flow beyond 2-3 years without doing these things.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

The whole “portfolio construction” narrative from SG is the interesting predicament these folks are dealing with and may arguably have little experience with as private / illiquid or semi-liquid managers - open-end funds know this flow dynamic well and it’s accounted for.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

If your portfolio is 20% software, you decide whether or not you believe the market price. If you don’t, you sell other buckets first - that’s the risk - do you want to crystallize that software mark or put selling pressure on the rest of the portfolio? Tough one.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@HighyieldHarry 😅😅🙏🏼🙏🏼

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@leevalueroach Gross and EBITDA margins are 90% and 50% - best in class - where could they go?…

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@the_P_God You’ll see first hand the barbaric impulses we push down everyday. It’s sick.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@HighyieldHarry Congrat HYH - get some!

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@RampCapitalLLC What size plants did you start with? I’m looking at an organic variety pack but they’re all quarts and feel like I might be too impatient for that?

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@PythiaR Feel like that’s the approach I need to take to get approval. They have no idea it’s magic.

[Caffienated Cap @caffiending]

@evantindell Definitely… they’re like 0.5x net levered on fwd EBITDA and rating capacity up to 2x… don’t see why they wouldn’t pull forward the buyback a bit and issue $10-15B with no risk to ratings (albeit probably has to come relatively cheap given backdrop…)